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#Post#: 504070--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: guest424 Date: December 12, 2024, 5:30 am
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Feinsand said there's an 85% chance Tucker's a Cub.
If that's wrong it's because it's 6:30 am and I misheard it.
#Post#: 504071--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 12, 2024, 7:12 am
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Not to belabor the obvious but since Tucker would almost
certainly be a one-year rental for the Cubs, trading assets for
him only makes sense if you're going to seriously go for it next
season. Unless of course it's merely a matter of trying to get
into their "if everything goes perfectly we have a chance to
sneak in" sweet spot and placate casual ticket buyers for
another year. Tucker is a great player but the Cubs are more
than Kyle Tucker away from being really good.
#Post#: 504072--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: guest424 Date: December 12, 2024, 7:29 am
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If you trade valuable pieces for him and don't extend him Jed
should be fired.
Damn I really hope it's just Suzuki,Paredes,and scraps if it
happens.
#Post#: 504073--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: CurtOne Date: December 12, 2024, 8:20 am
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The other day I suggested that we trade Paredes to the Astros
and immediately go after Bregman. To that I got two Agrees and
two Disagrees. The two real holes in the Cubs are catcher and
third. Bregman is the only legit 3B available, unless we trade
PCA to the Cards for Arenado and repeat the Brock gaffe. We are
willing to spend 750M for Soto but not what it would take to
plug a real hole? I'm missing something. I guess we spend
another year bitching about third base.
#Post#: 504074--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 12, 2024, 8:31 am
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[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=647.msg504073#msg504073
date=1734013245]
The other day I suggested that we trade Paredes to the Astros
and immediately go after Bregman. To that I got two Agrees and
two Disagrees. The two real holes in the Cubs are catcher and
third. Bregman is the only legit 3B available, unless we trade
PCA to the Cards for Arenado and repeat the Brock gaffe. We are
willing to spend 750M for Soto but not what it would take to
plug a real hole? I'm missing something. I guess we spend
another year bitching about third base.
[/quote]
Let's not be hyperbolic. St. Louis is going to have to attach a
prospect to get someone to take that contract, or eat most of
the money.
The issue with Bregman is that his offense has been in decline
for several seasons, and he wants to be paid like he's still a
superstar.
#Post#: 504076--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Fanzone Date: December 12, 2024, 10:34 am
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I advocated trading for and extending Tucker 6 weeks ago in the
event that Bellinger opted out. I think that there is a
reasonable chance that he would agree to extend for something
around $300-$310 million over eight years. (I doubt that the
Cubs would be willing to go past his age 35 season.) For
position players, the annual average is only behind Soto, Judge
and Ohtani, and the total value is only behind those three, and
(slightly behind) Seager, and Harper. As good as he is, Tucker
isn't in a league with Soto, Judge, Ohtani and Harper, and
Seager plays a much more important position. Tucker was open to
an extension with the Astros before things went south last year
over his (allegedly) misdiagnosed shin injury. That injury may
influence him to conclude that it's better to lock in
generational wealth right now rather than hold out for a much
larger offer from the Yankees, Phillies, Giants or Blue Jays
that would never materialize if he suffered a serious injury
next year.
Another possibility is to play the Dodgers game of deferring
money. I don't know whether Ricketts and Tucker would be open
to that.
#Post#: 504077--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: craig Date: December 12, 2024, 11:04 am
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Fanzone, yes, you mentioned this way back. Nice call! I
thought of that as soon as the Cubs/Tucker rumors emerged this
week! Couple thoughts:
1. Extension requires two sides. As you note, perhaps he'd be
willing, and having experienced injury might be more cognizant
that injury can happen, and might change things. So maybe he'd
be interested in securing it now.
2. I admit I wouldn't, if I was in his shoes. I'd be reluctant
to make that commitment to an unfamiliar organization, before
playing for a while. Will I like the manager, and feel
comfortable? Do they have expectations that are weird? I
haven't missed being in the playoffs since I came up in 2018;
Cubs haven't won a single playoff game since before then. Do I
trust that this is a place where I'm going to be winning? Will
I enjoy playing with the other guys on the team? Or will their
be jealousy and the camaraderie won't be fun? Will my wife want
to live there for years, and maybe need to make all new friends?
So, if it was me, I'd say, "Yes, I'm very interested. But lets
maybe wait till June, and see how I feel." If it's June, and I
feel like 'yeah, I like this team, I like the other guys, PCA,
Dansby, Seiya, Shota, Happ, Amaya, Brown, Hoerner, Busch, Wicks,
Caissie, Taillon, Brown, I love these guys, they are fun! And
this team is flat-out good, we've got a real chance to win for a
long time. The fans are fun, this is an awesome place. My wife
has made a bunch of fun friends and is settling in, she'll be OK
here. Counsell is cool, I like, trust, and respect him, so I
think we'll be in good hands there, too. Yeah, let's do this.
But if it was me, I'd not be eager to do it January, before
getting a chance to really see whether I like it and want to
stay.
#Post#: 504082--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Fanzone Date: December 12, 2024, 12:48 pm
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Thanks, Craig. Yes, we discussed this a while. back. I guess
I'm not as delusional as some people on this board have accused
me of being. If I remember correctly, you were kind of
ambivalent about the idea of trading for and extending guys like
the Braves have done.
You raise a good point about Tucker waiting. But waiting to
June might be too risky. What if you get hurt? If I remember
correctly, these type of extensions often happen around the end
of spring training.
#Post#: 504084--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: craig Date: December 12, 2024, 1:11 pm
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Yeah, end of camp could make a lot of sense, that's often when
players who are extending with their own team do it. Get it
done before it becomes a distraction, and all of that. And beat
the injury risk, as you say. Getting to camp start of February,
by end of March he'd have almost two months of chances to get to
know the players and coaches and get comfortable.
But yeah, regardless of whether April or June, both of those are
well beyond December/January. When a decision is being made
now, the Cubs have two scenarios:
1. Only make a good trade offer *IF* he agrees to an extension,
an extension that you're willing to pay, before you complete the
trade. Or,
2. Make a trade, with no guarantee that he'll extend with you,
or extend at terms that you're willing to accept.
#Post#: 504085--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: craig Date: December 12, 2024, 1:45 pm
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[quote author=Fanzone link=topic=647.msg504076#msg504076
date=1734021281]
I advocated trading for and extending Tucker 6 weeks ago in the
event that Bellinger opted out. I think that there is a
reasonable chance that he would agree to extend for something
around $300-$310 million over eight years. (I doubt that the
Cubs would be willing to go past his age 35 season.)
...[/quote]
Fanz, you doubt that the Cubs would be willing to go past his
age 35 season. Several thoughts on that:
1. If so, Cubs shouldn't make pay the trade price.
2. Star players get long contracts. That's the market; winning
bidders accept that; stars/agents expect it. So *IF* Cubs are
unwilling to go longer beyond 35, forget about an extension.
3. I think the Cubs WOULD be willing to go beyond 35, well
beyond.
4. *IF* the Cubs have been in semi-serious Tucker discussions,
logic follows that they think extending is variably plausible.
But extension is implausible if they won't budge past 35. So,
the logical conclusion is that *IF* they make a trade, it
follows that for this player at this time, they anticipate being
willing to go well beyond 35.
5. Hoyer understands that teams sign stars with eyes open:
accepting low value at end is justified by high value before the
end. He's expressed that choice is case-by-case. How much
sense that choice makes depends on the personality; on the
player's age; and on the club's competitive window.
6. I don't think Hoyer thought the situation was quite right
2,3, 4 years ago. The farm wasn't near enough to harvest yet.
He did think it was right for Ohtani a year ago. *IF* he's
actually serious about Tucker discussions, that would reflect
that Hoyer thinks a serious competitive window is opening.
Accepting low value at end is now justified by high value in the
upcoming years, where he thinks the Cubs have a shot to be very
good.
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