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#Post#: 504036--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Dave23 Date: December 11, 2024, 6:14 pm
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The big thing with Paredes is his spray chart is a big plus in
Houston, and a big negative in Chicago.
#Post#: 504042--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: ticohans Date: December 11, 2024, 6:32 pm
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Yeah, agree with Dave - the change in offensive environment is
so significant for Paredes' value that it has to factor into the
trade. Take his spray chart from last year and drop it into
Minute Maid and he hits 26 HRs vs 19 actual.
I'm not suggesting Paredes straight up should do it. I'd offer
Paredes, one of Caissie/Alcantara, a pitcher at the Wesneski
level, plus whatever lower-value-reliever-arm lottery ticket
catches their eye.
#Post#: 504043--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: JeffH Date: December 11, 2024, 6:45 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=647.msg504042#msg504042
date=1733963543]I'm not suggesting Paredes straight up should do
it. I'd offer Paredes, one of Caissie/Alcantara, a pitcher at
the Wesneski level, plus whatever lower-value-reliever-arm
lottery ticket catches their eye.[/quote]
Throw in Jonathan Long for goodwill.
#Post#: 504044--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 11, 2024, 6:51 pm
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Buster:
[quote]Only two players in MLB had a higher pull rate than Isaac
Paredes in 2024: Jose Altuve and Rhys Hoskins. His swing is made
for the Crawford Boxes.[/quote]
#Post#: 504045--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 11, 2024, 6:54 pm
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I don’t suppose there’s any chance the ‘stros would rather trade
Tucker to us than to a rival.
#Post#: 504046--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: Deeg Date: December 11, 2024, 6:59 pm
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On that front… I know Jesse Rogers isn’t a great source but he
does have some connections.
[quote]“I think there’s a domino effect where maybe the Yankees
get Bellinger and the Cubs get Tucker, that kind of thing. I do
know the Cubs can offer and would offer more than the Yankees
for Tucker. Because the Yankees want one of the two. I’m also
hearing weird things like Houston won’t trade for Bellinger
because of things he said about the cheating scandal seven years
ago. Meanwhile, the Astros won’t trade Tucker to New York
because of the rivalry that happened there. They won’t deliver
him to a rival. I’m not sure what’s true or not, except there is
smoke around Tucker and the Cubs, and Bellinger and the Yankees.
Those make a lot of sense to me ….[/quote]
And:
[quote]I don’t think Jed is going to give away the farm for one
year of Kyle Tucker. Jed knows value. Jed knows what he’s doing
in that sense. Signing Tucker to an extension is a whole other
story. That’s where the Cubs fail …. I think it’s almost like a
one-year [thing] …. I’ll tell you why: Juan Soto. His deal has
upped the ante for everyone who comes next, and if you have
numbers that are at all comparable in any way – and Tucker does
– he’s not signing an extension that is not a mammoth one. Now,
it’s not going to be $600 million, but even $300 million and
$350 or something crazy like that, you know the Cubs are gonna
tap out ….[/quote]
#Post#: 504047--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: ticohans Date: December 11, 2024, 7:00 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=647.msg504042#msg504042
date=1733963543]
Yeah, agree with Dave - the change in offensive environment is
so significant for Paredes' value that it has to factor into the
trade. Take his spray chart from last year and drop it into
Minute Maid and he hits 26 HRs vs 19 actual.
[/quote]
All this said, it's fair to step back a moment and reflect that
Jed turned Morel into Paredes earlier this year, a move I did
not like, but looks pretty good in near-hindsight.
If the Cubs felt this was the likely outcome for Morel, the
opportunity to turn that and Suzuki into Tucker feels like a
pretty good exchange.
Now, if the reports that the Astros are also asking for Shaw or
Smith are true, they can go pound sand.
#Post#: 504049--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: ticohans Date: December 11, 2024, 7:03 pm
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Think this is a great idea, and based on recent precedent:
HTML https://x.com/IvyFutures/status/1866884624103956755
#Post#: 504051--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: craig Date: December 11, 2024, 7:08 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=647.msg504042#msg504042
date=1733963543]
..- the change in offensive environment is so significant for
Paredes' value that it has to factor into the trade. Take his
spray chart from last year and drop it into Minute Maid and he
hits 26 HRs vs 19 actual....[/quote]
How many would Tucker lose in Wrigley? A bundle of HR and slug,
or only a handful?
#Post#: 504052--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘25
By: JeffH Date: December 11, 2024, 7:13 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=647.msg504049#msg504049
date=1733965396]
Think this is a great idea, and based on recent precedent:
HTML https://x.com/IvyFutures/status/1866884624103956755
[/quote]
maybe swap in Ben Brown? <--- Nonstarter, sorry.
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