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#Post#: 482862--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: November 21, 2023, 8:01 pm
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There will need to be some luck. As proved true in 2016.
[Willson Contreras, Cashner for imperfect Rizzo; Kyle Hendricks;
Hector Rondon; Trevor Cahill, Travis Wood, Justin Grimm, Pedro
Strop... Cubs got all kinds of good work from mix-and-match
pickups.]
Cubs will need some luck again. We need some uncertain
prospects to turn out well like Hendricks, Rizzo, Willson and
Arrieta did. The farm is crucial, and *IF* all of our prospect
fail, the build isn't going to work.
I like having a collection of pitching prospects. steele,
Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton, I hope they turn out pretty well.
But yeah, it's going to hinge on the farm system.
I'm somewhat hesitant to trade much of the farm system away. I
don't know who's going to be good. Don't want to fall back into
Theo's scorched-earth farm.
#Post#: 482863--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CUBluejays Date: November 21, 2023, 8:17 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=630.msg482859#msg482859
date=1700617044]
You state: "The farm system isn’t going to lift them". Hoyer's
current plan assumes that it can. I believe that *IF* the build
is going to work out, that the farm needs to contribute
significantly. With a system ranked top 7 by media sources, and
as high as 1st by Fangraphs (?), I am hopeful that the farm
system will help.
We don't have ANY star position prospects comparable to what
Bryant, Soler, Schwarber, or Baez were perceived to be. 2014
with Baez-Bryant-Schwarber-Almora-Russell-Soler, that was a
pretty remarkable convergence of high-draft, high-upside
prospects. Five top-11 picks and a $30M-bonus guy, that was
pretty amazing.
But yeah, I'm optimstic that our arguably #1 system will provide
a number of asset guys that could make the build succeed. No
guarantees, for sure, and absolutely it's a different plan from
2014.
[/quote]
The Cubs farm system is depth based. Fangraphs does a $/FV
grade. The higher the FV grade the more the prospect is worth.
The Cubs have the most ranked prospects and the highest current
total $ value. Their $/prosect is also the lowest of the top
teams. The farm system will help the MLB team, it doesn’t have
the prospects that are going to take their solid core and make
it into a World Series team.
The Orioles just graduated Adley Rutchman and Gunner Henderson
and have Jackson Holliday in the minors. That is a farm system
that will make a team a World Seies contender. You put the Cubs
current system on the back end of that and it is amazing. The
current Cubs system is what the 2018 Cubs needed, not what the
2024 Cubs need.
#Post#: 482864--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CUBluejays Date: November 21, 2023, 8:19 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=630.msg482862#msg482862
date=1700618501]
There will need to be some luck. As proved true in 2016.
[Willson Contreras, Cashner for imperfect Rizzo; Kyle Hendricks;
Hector Rondon; Trevor Cahill, Travis Wood, Justin Grimm, Pedro
Strop... Cubs got all kinds of good work from mix-and-match
pickups.]
Cubs will need some luck again. We need some uncertain
prospects to turn out well like Hendricks, Rizzo, Willson and
Arrieta did. The farm is crucial, and *IF* all of our prospect
fail, the build isn't going to work.
I like having a collection of pitching prospects. steele,
Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton, I hope they turn out pretty well.
But yeah, it's going to hinge on the farm system.
I'm somewhat hesitant to trade much of the farm system away. I
don't know who's going to be good. Don't want to fall back into
Theo's scorched-earth farm.
[/quote]
The Cubs need top 10 Bryant level prospects . The current
system/MLB has the support players.
#Post#: 482865--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CUBluejays Date: November 21, 2023, 8:24 pm
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[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=630.msg482861#msg482861
date=1700617498]
Wow. Then it must be true!
[/quote]
I see Reb is back to his no fun can be had on this message board
and all topics of discussion must be properly sourced and happen
within 24 hours or it isn’t worth discussion. Noted or he could
just avoid the rumors topic.
#Post#: 482867--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: November 21, 2023, 8:52 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=630.msg482863#msg482863
date=1700619472]The Cubs farm system is depth based. Fangraphs
does a $/FV grade. ...
The Orioles just graduated Adley Rutchman and Gunner Henderson
and have Jackson Holliday in the minors. .... The current Cubs
system is what the 2018 Cubs needed, not what the 2024 Cubs
need.[/quote]
Those are very fair and helpful points.
#Post#: 482868--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: November 21, 2023, 9:49 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=630.msg482865#msg482865
date=1700619879]
I see Reb is back to his no fun can be had on this message board
and all topics of discussion must be properly sourced and happen
within 24 hours or it isn’t worth discussion. Noted or he could
just avoid the rumors topic.
[/quote]
By all means, please have “fun” in whatever manner you find
amusing.
What I find amusing is a “rumor” about something “heard” by a HS
English teacher who is devoted fan with a podcast.
Sure, discuss the merits of a Bo Bichette trade to Cubs. Maybe
it makes sense on the merits, if not on a practical basis. I
threw out the merits of Cubs acquiring Eugenio Suarez a few days
ago. As a baseball discussion, either is fine.
But, saying this is a “rumor” about something that is actually
being discussed by the clubs because a HS teacher “heard” about
it is silly. Trust me, if a trade happens, it’s a coincidence.
It’s amusing but, by all means, go ahead and join in the “fun.”
#Post#: 482869--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Deeg Date: November 21, 2023, 10:03 pm
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You must be a blast at parties.
#Post#: 482870--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: November 21, 2023, 10:40 pm
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Are you kidding? High School Trade Rumor parties are a blast!
#Post#: 482871--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Dave23 Date: November 21, 2023, 10:48 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=630.msg482868#msg482868
date=1700624982]
By all means, please have “fun” in whatever manner you find
amusing.
What I find amusing is a “rumor” about something “heard” by a HS
English teacher who is devoted fan with a podcast.
Sure, discuss the merits of a Bo Bichette trade to Cubs. Maybe
it makes sense on the merits, if not on a practical basis. I
threw out the merits of Cubs acquiring Eugenio Suarez a few days
ago. As a baseball discussion, either is fine.
But, saying this is a “rumor” about something that is actually
being discussed by the clubs because a HS teacher “heard” about
it is silly. Trust me, if a trade happens, it’s a coincidence.
It’s amusing but, by all means, go ahead and join in the “fun.”
[/quote]
You have no idea who he knows, or who might be a fan or regular
listener to his podcast. None whatsoever.
If you’re not a fan of the hot stove, maybe this topic isn’t
your speed…
#Post#: 482872--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: November 21, 2023, 11:26 pm
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Exactly! there is zero evidence who he knows, if anybody. That’s
my point.
A professional making his/her living as a sports journalist, on
the other hand, has industry contacts. That’s what makes a
professional. So, a report from such a person may be noteworthy.
A High school English teacher is a guy. Okay, a guy with a
podcast. In years past, he’d be a guy talking to some other guy.
Today, you can create a podcast and talk to a wider audience of
other guys. Fine, you can believe that this guy is getting
credible inside dope from another guy who is a fan or a
listener.
I don’t care if you want to buy into that. Believe what you
want. Discuss, discuss. But, it’s interesting that folks get a
rise when I point this out.
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