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#Post#: 482560--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 16, 2023, 6:07 pm
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I don’t see the draw with Chapman if the numbers we’re seeing
estimated are close. Seems unlikely to produce offensively at
levels that would justify them, and if his defense starts to
tail off into his 30s he could be a real albatross of a
contract.
As for Imanaga, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him eventually
come in around the same as Senga (5/$75M, which I’d be OK with).
Not as good a prospect, but it’s a year later. And guys like
Senga succeeding in MLB drives up the cost of the guy that comes
after them.
#Post#: 482561--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: November 16, 2023, 6:11 pm
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> I don’t see the draw with Chapman if the numbers we’re seeing
estimated are close. Seems unlikely to produce offensively at
levels that would justify them, and if his defense starts to
tail off into his 30s he could be a real albatross of a
contract.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yes, but if we get Chapman and re-sign Bellinger, we could have
an all gold glove infield. How cool would that be? Our
announcers could remind us every damb broadcast!
#Post#: 482563--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: JeffH
Date: November 16, 2023, 7:50 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
> RR has Cubs at estimated $186-190 AAV 2024 currently,
including “player benefits” and the like.
--- End Quote ---
My reckoning suggests that the $190 will be closer to $180 by
the time all is said and done. Still, Reb's post is
illustrative.
#Post#: 482565--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: craig
Date: November 16, 2023, 7:59 pm
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> I don’t see the draw with Chapman if the numbers we’re seeing
estimated are close. Seems unlikely to produce offensively at
levels that would justify them, and if his defense starts to
tail off into his 30s he could be a real albatross of a
contract. ...
--- End Quote ---
Yeah, $20 is too high for my liking. Nice glove, but I want
some offense. Another easy-out low-.700's K-guy who bats .225
doesn't appeal, probably getting worse as 30's roll.
I'd rather short-term roster-fill at 3B for now. Hoping Shaw
works out as a true-blue hitter with more power than Hoerner;
and decent shortstops often learn to play a decent 3B. Some
cheap short-term roster-fill guy like Candelario might fit. But
I'd rather not spend real money on 3B.
#Post#: 482566--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: davep
Date: November 16, 2023, 8:02 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CurtOne link ---
>
> Sorry if this sounds convoluted, but sometimes it can harm
more than hurt to be too close mouthed. Getting to know your
opponents ' thinking can be advantageous and denying rumors you
yourself started can help stir the pot. I often wonder how
often teams allow things, true or not, to slip out.
>
--- End Quote ---
Actually, I think that we are onto something here. This is what
we know.
1. All agents, except for that of Ohtani, All players except for
Ohtani, and all executives other than the Cubs executives,
spread rumors about impending deals.
2. Hoyer and his executives never spread any rumors about
impending deals.
3. Ohtani never spreads rumors about impending deals.
4. There are no rumors about impending deals.
Therefore, we can be absolutely certain that the Cubs and Ohtani
are about to sign a new contract. Probably by tomorrow.
#Post#: 482567--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 16, 2023, 8:05 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> …..Probably by tomorrow.
>
--- End Quote ---
I’ll take the over on that.
#Post#: 482568--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 16, 2023, 8:46 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Dumb question. Imagine the following. How close would this
take us to or over the lux line?
> 1. Imanaga rotation
> 2. Hoskins 1B
> 3. Chapman 3B
> 4. Relief help.
> 5. Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF
>
>
> Q's:
> 1. Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take
us over?
> 2. Is that perhaps even more than Hoyer is willing to spend,
and even that is too much? He'd rather back off with a 3B more
in the Candelario-level price range? Or Gibson-cost rotation
guy versus Imanaga?
> 3. Blue, might that be the kind of pool of players that Hoyer
might be shooting for, do you think?
> 4. *IF* that was the winter action, would we be
disappointed/frustrated? Or OK with that, and take our chances
with the unpredictabilities of baseball?
> 5. Would that kind of a winter really surprise you? Or is
that kind of what you really expect, and signing any of Ohtani,
Bellinger, Yamamoto, or Hader would be a big and pleasant
surprise, but more pipe dream than actual expectation?
>
--- End Quote ---
1) Over, some of Reb’s guesses might be lo
2) Hopefully the Cubs can spend more
3) Good players that don’t fix what the Cubs need. Perfect
Hoyer targets.
4) disappointing. The Cubs would be worse on paper even though
the record could be better with luck. If the Brewers rebuild
the division is there for the taking.
5) if any of Ohtani, Soto, Bellringer or Yamamoto are Cubs
#Post#: 482593--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: craig
Date: November 17, 2023, 10:43 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Craig ---
> Imagine the following.
> 1. Imanaga rotation
> 2. Hoskins 1B
> 3. Chapman 3B
> 4. Relief help.
> 5. Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF..
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
> ...Figure $20 Chapman, $18 Imanaga, $15 Hoskins, $10 for, say,
bullpen Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson. That’s, say, $190
plus $63= $253. First level CBT is $237. Second level CBT is
$257.
--- End Quote ---
Curt mentioned this could move Hoyer to the unemployment line.
Sobering, that moves like this could be pushing toward the
second-level lux, yet we'd feel generally disappointed.
#Post#: 482599--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 17, 2023, 12:54 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Curt mentioned this could move Hoyer to the unemployment line.
Sobering, that moves like this could be pushing toward the
second-level lux, yet we'd feel generally disappointed.
>
--- End Quote ---
Does anybody really believe that Ricketts would pull a Hoyer? I
have a hard time believing that Tom would show up at Hoyer's
house and let him go if there was a Counsell level baseball
executive that was a free agent. Short of Theo wanting to come
back I think this is Jed's job until he doesn' want it any more.
'
#Post#: 482600--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: November 17, 2023, 1:00 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Does anybody really believe that Ricketts would pull a Hoyer?
I have a hard time believing that Tom would show up at Hoyer's
house and let him go if there was a Counsell level baseball
executive that was a free agent. Short of Theo wanting to come
back I think this is Jed's job until he doesn' want it any more.
> '
>
--- End Quote ---
Are you talking about the same owner who approved of dumping a
first year manager for Joe and then dumping a Cub hero for
Craig?
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