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#Post#: 483293--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: December 1, 2023, 9:16 pm
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I'm not lobbying for Montgomery by any means. Recent Montgomery
has been kinda interchangable with recent Stroman, I think they
are on comparable plane recently, other than durability.
But I'm not that obsessed with the profile. If I'm choosing
between a 3.4 ERA and 3.6 ERA type guy, do I care that much how
they get there? These seem like two guys on kind of a
comparable plane. Still, all else being equal, I'd go for the
guy who's younger, who's been more durable recently, who has
fewer innings on his history, who throws harder, and who's
velocity has been solid or trending up, rather than showing the
downward drift that sometimes accompanies guys rolling nearer
mid 30's and rolling past 1300 innings.
#Post#: 483294--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CurtOne Date: December 1, 2023, 9:18 pm
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[quote author=Dave23 link=topic=630.msg483291#msg483291
date=1701484368]
Stroman’s mystery injury is a big red flag for me. What is he
hiding?
[/quote]Nobody believes me but I still think he broke his ribs
and pulled muscles when he ran over to give Joey Bats a hug and
lifted him off the ground in Toronto. Watch and see.
#Post#: 483295--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CUBluejays Date: December 1, 2023, 9:42 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=630.msg483292#msg483292
date=1701486599]
Montogomery has struck out 8.4/9 over his career, which is
hardly low. A full K higher than Stroman too.
I don’t think Montgomery will get 6 years, and I wouldn’t give
him that. I’m not a huge advocate - just pointing out that he’s
better than Stroman and on the right deal, I’d consider him a
decent addition.
[/quote]
The last time he was above 8K/9 was 2021.
[quote author=craig link=topic=630.msg483293#msg483293
date=1701487011]
I'm not lobbying for Montgomery by any means. Recent Montgomery
has been kinda interchangable with recent Stroman, I think they
are on comparable plane recently, other than durability.
But I'm not that obsessed with the profile. If I'm choosing
between a 3.4 ERA and 3.6 ERA type guy, do I care that much how
they get there? These seem like two guys on kind of a
comparable plane. Still, all else being equal, I'd go for the
guy who's younger, who's been more durable recently, who has
fewer innings on his history, who throws harder, and who's
velocity has been solid or trending up, rather than showing the
downward drift that sometimes accompanies guys rolling nearer
mid 30's and rolling past 1300 innings.
[/quote]
Avoid both of them.
#Post#: 483298--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Deeg Date: December 2, 2023, 2:37 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=630.msg483293#msg483293
date=1701487011]
I'm not lobbying for Montgomery by any means. Recent Montgomery
has been kinda interchangable with recent Stroman, I think they
are on comparable plane recently, other than durability.
But I'm not that obsessed with the profile. If I'm choosing
between a 3.4 ERA and 3.6 ERA type guy, do I care that much how
they get there? These seem like two guys on kind of a
comparable plane. Still, all else being equal, I'd go for the
guy who's younger, who's been more durable recently, who has
fewer innings on his history, who throws harder, and who's
velocity has been solid or trending up, rather than showing the
downward drift that sometimes accompanies guys rolling nearer
mid 30's and rolling past 1300 innings.
[/quote]
That would be another possible consideration. Stroman is on
1300+ IP and Montgomery 755. He had TJS but has been durable
since.
#Post#: 483299--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: December 2, 2023, 3:00 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Deeg link=topic=630.msg483298#msg483298
date=1701506250]
That would be another possible consideration. Stroman is on
1300+ IP and Montgomery 755. He had TJS but has been durable
since.
[/quote]
Translation: Stroman has been very good for a considerably
longer period than Montgomery has been very good.
#Post#: 483302--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Deeg Date: December 2, 2023, 6:58 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Well, Stroman has been "good" for 110 fewer innings over the
past four seasons than Montgomery, that's true.
#Post#: 483303--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CUBluejays Date: December 2, 2023, 9:55 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Deeg link=topic=630.msg483302#msg483302
date=1701521917]
Well, Stroman has been "good" for 110 fewer innings over the
past four seasons than Montgomery, that's true.
[/quote]
Despite pitching 110 fewer inning Stroman still has more fWAR
than Montgomery during those 4 seasons.
#Post#: 483304--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: December 2, 2023, 11:18 am
---------------------------------------------------------
This is an interesting discussion. Couple tangent thoughts:
1. Cubs were ready to pay Stroman his $25. Per rumors, they
are in discussion for Yamamoto, Glasnow, Montgomery. Whether
they actually add any of these remains to be seen; other teams
will be be interested too. But it seems the Cubs are willing to
be spending on a pitcher, so budget-wise they are willing.
Whether via FA or trade, they seem likely to add one guy to the
rotation who projects as an above-average starter. Probably
slot in as our #2 behind Steele, in front of Hendricks and
Taillon. I'm guessing #5 will probably be internal (Wicks,
Assad.)
2. I'm an optimist. Whether it's Stroman, Montgomery, Glasnow,
Cease, Yamamoto, Cease, Imanaga, Snell, I'll be optimistic with
any of those guys, at least for 2024. Obviously they aren't all
the same. Six years of a young Yamamoto is different from 1
year of Glasnow, or of 33-in-spring Stroman. Glasnow or
Stroman, they might be injured by June, who knows. But yeah, if
Stroman is the guy, I'll hope he's going to stay healthy, and be
able to pitch at his pre-injury level. If it's Glasnow, I'll
just hope that he's been victim of coincidental injuries, but
that this is the year he stays healthy and pitches great.
3. As an optimist, I'd like to imagine Horton becoming an ace,
or maybe Brown, or maybe in a couple of years Ferris? It's
conceivable that your #2 guy this year, is #3 behind Horton and
Steele in the 2025 World Series? Obviously it would be fun if
they signed Yamamoto and he turned out to be an ace; if Horton
emerged as an ace; and if Steele holds up as an ace. Three
high-end pitchers, that could be really fun.
#Post#: 483324--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Ron Date: December 3, 2023, 1:32 pm
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FWIW:
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
Shohei Ohtani is likely to decide on a team within the next
week, according to one source engaged with the top end of the
free-agent market.
#Post#: 483325--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Robb Date: December 3, 2023, 2:17 pm
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I wish he would just pick the Dodgers and be done with it. They
were always his pick all along and all this noise is just to
sweeten his eventual deal with them. This is probably why Jed
jumped in with such gusto. No real danger of having to actually
write that check.
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