DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Bleacher Bums Forum
HTML https://bbf.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Bleacher Bums Forum
*****************************************************
#Post#: 483267--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: chgojhawk Date: December 1, 2023, 4:02 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=630.msg483248#msg483248
date=1701452369]
Jeff Passan's ESPN+ article
Ohtani: Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Angels +/- Giants. Bidding
could get up to $600 million
Soto: Cubs not mentioned
Yamamoto: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs +/- Giants,
Phillies, Blue Jays
Glasnow: no teams mentioned, just that the market is heating up
Cease: Cubs mentioned, but just in the sense that they want
pitchting and have a farm system to make the trade. Same goes
for the other teams.
Montgomery: Linked to the Cubs if they miss out on other
options. 6 years/$140 is the guess
Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
Sources tell
@MarinoMLB, @AzoulayHaron and me that the Tampa Bay Rays have,
indeed, been active in talks to trade RHP Tyler Glasnow. As
hoped, the Cubs are among the suitors showing strong and recent
interest, though 3-5 others are still involved.
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
The 4 teams @JeffPassanconfirms to be in on Shohei Ohtani are
exactly the ones I heard. The Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs and
Dodgers. Like he mentions, it’s unclear where SFG stands here
and how involved they may be. They could be a player for Cody
Bellinger or Matt Chapman as well.
[/quote]
Just my gut opinion, but I don't see Ohtani staying with the
Angels. I think he wants something different. I also don't
think it will be the Blue Jays. I hear Toronto is a wonderful
town, but the Jays strike me as an odd team to remain in the
running.
I think it will come down to the Cubs and the Dodgers with the
Dodgers offering significantly more money and a greater
opportunity to win.
#Post#: 483268--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: December 1, 2023, 4:09 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=630.msg483257#msg483257
date=1701463439]
Cubs are currently at $185 million. Add Glasnow would but them
about $27 million below the first line.
I wouldn't assume that Bellinger is the fallback option to
Ohtani. It sure sounds like the Cubs only are interested at
their price and not his price. If it was Montgomery/Bellinger +
bullpen is that really a more talented team than last year?
[/quote]
Fair question, but I think objectively yes? No guarantees, of
course, but yeah, I think keeping Bellinger, replacing Stroman
with Montgomery, and replacing Boxberber + Fulmer with some
relievers, we *should* be more talented?
1. Replacing Bellinger with Bellinger should be a downgrade.
He's obviously not going to reproduce the year he had. But he
should still be a good player.
2. Montgomery was >2 WAR better than Stroman. That should
help. Stroman was done by June 21.
3. Boxberger and Fulmer provided very little, and cost only $2
and $4. I expect Hoyer will spend more and get more
productivity from his pen signings.
4. We're in a rebuild. We have young talent coming that might
help. Wicks, Palencia, Little, Canario, Morel, PCA, Amaya, none
of those guys were on the roster last April. I think those guys
have talent that will help the Cubs to varying degree, and make
the team more talented than what they started with last year.
5. Horton and Brown are variably talented as well. Good chance
that one or both of them will help the talent level before the
season ends.
6. *IF* Hoyer hypothetically signs Bellinger and Montgomery and
pen, that might be it, as your hypothetical states. But I think
there's a non-trivial chance that if that were to happen, that
perhaps Hoyer might also add one more bat for the 3B/1B/DH
areas? Barnhart, Hosmer, Mancini, won't be super hard to
upgrade the talent on their 500 PA.
So yeah, I think Bellinger-Montgomery-pen combined with our
young talent would make the Cubs more talented. Obviously not
to Atlanta's talent level, but more than the 2023 Cubs, and
certainly more than the 2023 April roster.
#Post#: 483269--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: December 1, 2023, 4:21 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=630.msg483257#msg483257
date=1701463439]
Cubs are currently at $185 million. Add Glasnow would but them
about $27 million below the first line.
I wouldn't assume that Bellinger is the fallback option to
Ohtani. It sure sounds like the Cubs only are interested at
their price and not his price. If it was Montgomery/Bellinger +
bullpen is that really a more talented team than last year?
[/quote]
1. Agree that I wouldn't assume the Cubs will sign Bellinger if
they miss out on Ohtani. It's entirely possible that when it
all shakes out, the big ticket options will choose other teams,
and perhaps the Cubs roster will NOT exceed even the first lux
line.
2. Personally, I think "interested at their price and not his
price" kinda makes sense. I don't think that's dumb. Do the
analysis and figure out what reasonable value is. *IF* you need
to make a bad-value deal to sign him, I'm OK if Hoyer is willing
to walk away. Cubs should prepare good offers, but they don't
control whether other teams might make bad-value offers, nor can
they control if a player uses his choice and chooses somebody
else. So yeah, maybe they won't get even Montgomery and
bellinger, much less Yamamoto and Ohtani. But I don't think
it's smart to commit to paying whatever the cost may be to get a
guy like Bellinger.
3. I believe the willingness to be involved in competitive
market offers on Ohtani, Yamamoto, Bellinger, Glasnow, and
Montgomery provides evidence that the team is at last willing to
fly past at least the first luxury line. It might not happen,
if Ohtani, Bellinger, and Yamamoto all choose other cities. But
it seems the willingness appears to be there, *IF* worthy
players are willing to take the Cubs money.
#Post#: 483270--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CUBluejays Date: December 1, 2023, 4:27 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=630.msg483268#msg483268
date=1701468555]
Fair question, but I think objectively yes? No guarantees, of
course, but yeah, I think keeping Bellinger, replacing Stroman
with Montgomery, and replacing Boxberber + Fulmer with some
relievers, we *should* be more talented?
1. Replacing Bellinger with Bellinger should be a downgrade.
He's obviously not going to reproduce the year he had. But he
should still be a good player.
2. Montgomery was >2 WAR better than Stroman. That should
help. Stroman was done by June 21.
3. Boxberger and Fulmer provided very little, and cost only $2
and $4. I expect Hoyer will spend more and get more
productivity from his pen signings.
4. We're in a rebuild. We have young talent coming that might
help. Wicks, Palencia, Little, Canario, Morel, PCA, Amaya, none
of those guys were on the roster last April. I think those guys
have talent that will help the Cubs to varying degree, and make
the team more talented than what they started with last year.
5. Horton and Brown are variably talented as well. Good chance
that one or both of them will help the talent level before the
season ends.
6. *IF* Hoyer hypothetically signs Bellinger and Montgomery and
pen, that might be it, as your hypothetical states. But I think
there's a non-trivial chance that if that were to happen, that
perhaps Hoyer might also add one more bat for the 3B/1B/DH
areas? Barnhart, Hosmer, Mancini, won't be super hard to
upgrade the talent on their 500 PA.
So yeah, I think Bellinger-Montgomery-pen combined with our
young talent would make the Cubs more talented. Obviously not
to Atlanta's talent level, but more than the 2023 Cubs, and
certainly more than the 2023 April roster.
[/quote]
Is Montgomery really better than Stroman? Stroman had 2.7 fWAR
in 136 IP, Montgomery was 4.3 in 188 IP. Stroman's under the
hood numbers.
Bullpen's are a crap shot. For every Fulmer, Boxberger their is
a Merryweather, Alzolay, Leiter.
It is a team that can compete in a crap division and might even
win 90 games, because no one is really trying to be a great team
in the NL Central. I just don't think the Cubs are going to
have a shot at Bellinger. Somebody is going to miss on the big
guns and pay him.
#Post#: 483271--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CurtOne Date: December 1, 2023, 5:28 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Is this the same Hoyer who thought that Fulmer, Boxleiter,
Hosmer, Mancini, Taillon, and Barnhardt were difference makers
last season and had to have his arm wrung to sign Bellinger? Is
this the same guy who praised Ross all season and then spent a
lot of money to dump him. Optimistic?
#Post#: 483273--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Deeg Date: December 1, 2023, 5:57 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Watch out for the Giants on Ohtani - their lack of obvious
involvement is unsettling. They make sense for him in many ways
and they're very good at keeping secrets. It's probably going
to be the Dodgers but if anybody shocks the world on this, I
think SF is the best bet to do it.
#Post#: 483274--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Deeg Date: December 1, 2023, 6:04 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=630.msg483270#msg483270
date=1701469675]
Is Montgomery really better than Stroman? Stroman had 2.7 fWAR
in 136 IP, Montgomery was 4.3 in 188 IP. Stroman's under the
hood numbers.
[/quote]
Yes, Montgomery is better than Stroman. He's two years younger,
one of the more consistent SP in baseball, and shows no signs of
decline yet (average velocity last year was the highest of his
career). He'll cost more too, of course, though some are
estimating a lot less than 6/140. He could represent one of the
better values in the SP market, though he isn't exactly the miss
bats power arm the Cubs need at the top of the rotation.
#Post#: 483278--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: davep Date: December 1, 2023, 7:13 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=630.msg483257#msg483257
date=1701463439]
Cubs are currently at $185 million. Add Glasnow would but them
about $27 million below the first line.
I wouldn't assume that Bellinger is the fallback option to
Ohtani. It sure sounds like the Cubs only are interested at
their price and not his price. If it was Montgomery/Bellinger +
bullpen is that really a more talented team than last year?
[/quote]
That depends. Will Morel continue to improve his offensive
production, and if so, can he do it while playing an acceptable
third base. Is Canario ready to take over the DH position and
produce enough contact to make his amazing power useable? Will
PCA show that 14 at bats last year are not enough to make a
valid evaluation of his readiness for the majors. And above
all, can they sign Yamamoto or bring in another good pitcher in
trade?
#Post#: 483280--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: davep Date: December 1, 2023, 7:19 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I wasn't aware that he had to have his arm wrung to sign
Bellinger. Is there a source for that?
#Post#: 483281--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Dave23 Date: December 1, 2023, 7:37 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I’m still wondering why Bellinger obviously won’t repeat last
year’s performance…
*****************************************************
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page