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#Post#: 483231--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: November 30, 2023, 5:11 pm
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[quote author=Dave23 link=topic=630.msg483221#msg483221
date=1701379936]
I mentioned this a while back. He shortened up and went oppo
quite a lot with 2 strikes…content to flare or place one the
other way. Many sources have acknowledged this, and confirmed
it, but still mention exit velocity as a factor. It doesn’t make
much sense.
[/quote]
Bellinger had the lowest Oppo batted ball % of his career in
2023. What went waaaaay up was his center Oppo %.
If you look at his batted ball chart (see bbsavant), his
non-pulled singles are bunched up toward middle of the field.
This is true for his infield singles too.
So, yes, he made big two-strike adjustments in 2023 and it
worked: his K% went way down. It’s a terrific approach—put the
ball in play with two strikes.
Consider this: NL hitters with two strikes batted .174 and OPSed
at .527 in 2023. Bellinger batted .279 with two strikes and
OPSed at .725.
The two-strike difference between Bellinger and NL hitters is
extraordinary. That’s the outlier that drove his success. The
average exit velocity stuff is secondary, seems to me. It raises
questions but doesn’t answer much.
So, for me, what I want to know is whether Bellinger can repeat
or come close to his extraordinary two-strike performance
compared to the rest of the league. Cubs fans who watched 2023
games know that this wasn’t purely two-strike luck. Rather,
Bellinger changed his approach with two strikes——kind of like
hitters used to do for a 100 years before the recent past.
Very hard to hit .279 with two strikes. Mark Grace hit .244
career with two strikes. Wade Boggs hit .262. So, would not
expect something close to .279 again.
Of course there’s Tony Gwynn who hit .302 career with two
strikes. Talk about a unicorn.
#Post#: 483232--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: November 30, 2023, 5:24 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=630.msg483230#msg483230
date=1701385556]
There have been a lot of comments from insiders suggesting we’re
unlikely to bring him back.
[/quote]
Guessing that Bellinger is more of a timing thing than lack of
Cubs interest.
Apparently, Cubs current focus is Ohtani. Obviously, a
non-Ohtani big ticket item will be back-burner until Ohtani
signs somewhere or Cubs decide they are out on Ohtani.
Further, there seems to be an expectation that Boras will be
patient with a Bellinger signing, so makes complete sense for
Cubs to back-burner Bellinger for now.
Watched The Athletic’s Roundtable podcast and Giants beat writer
talked about Giants massive need to sign either Ohtani or
Bellinger, so there’s that, plus Yankees a strong fit for
Bellinger too.
So, no, don’t think that Cubs have “checked-out” on Bellinger,
but rather that timing and other big organizations may be
focused on Bellinger and that will make it tough for Cubs to
sign him, as a practical matter.
#Post#: 483233--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Deeg Date: November 30, 2023, 5:38 pm
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Incidentally, there’s a lot of buzz that Bellinger is asking for
a 12-year deal. That doesn’t mean he’s going to get it of
course.
#Post#: 483234--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CurtOne Date: November 30, 2023, 6:37 pm
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As much as I want him back, that's 5 or 6 years too many.
#Post#: 483237--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Deeg Date: November 30, 2023, 6:45 pm
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Maybe these batted ball metrics tank his value and we can get
him on a 4 or 5-year deal, who knows. Unlikely but I’m sure
that’s what Hoyer is hoping.
#Post#: 483238--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CurtOne Date: November 30, 2023, 6:58 pm
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Hoyer is still unaware that Bellinger is a FA.
#Post#: 483244--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: wmljohn Date: December 1, 2023, 7:46 am
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I have spoken to the kindergarten teacher, who said her 2nd
grader is okay with revealing his real name. After all, he is
just a child.
Kurtis Wonderday told her that the Cubs are unlikely to bring
back Bellinger. She did say Kurtis is only allowed to use the
internet sparingly while being monitored by his parents. She
does not think he is allowed to participate on any message
boards because his parents think he is not mature enough to
handle internet bullying.
#Post#: 483245--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: wmljohn Date: December 1, 2023, 7:55 am
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The second grader, Kurtis Wonderday, also told the anonymous
kindergarten teacher that the Cubs will sign Ohtani, Yamamoto,
Bellinger, and trade for Dylan Cease and Juan Soto. He expects
all of these moves to be announced during the winter meetings.
#Post#: 483247--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CurtOne Date: December 1, 2023, 10:51 am
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Kurtis Wonderday sounds like a child genius!
#Post#: 483248--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CUBluejays Date: December 1, 2023, 11:39 am
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Jeff Passan's ESPN+ article
Ohtani: Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Angels +/- Giants. Bidding
could get up to $600 million
Soto: Cubs not mentioned
Yamamoto: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs +/- Giants,
Phillies, Blue Jays
Glasnow: no teams mentioned, just that the market is heating up
Cease: Cubs mentioned, but just in the sense that they want
pitchting and have a farm system to make the trade. Same goes
for the other teams.
Montgomery: Linked to the Cubs if they miss out on other
options. 6 years/$140 is the guess
Michael Cerami
@Michael_Cerami
Sources tell
@MarinoMLB, @AzoulayHaron and me that the Tampa Bay Rays have,
indeed, been active in talks to trade RHP Tyler Glasnow. As
hoped, the Cubs are among the suitors showing strong and recent
interest, though 3-5 others are still involved.
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
The 4 teams @JeffPassanconfirms to be in on Shohei Ohtani are
exactly the ones I heard. The Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs and
Dodgers. Like he mentions, it’s unclear where SFG stands here
and how involved they may be. They could be a player for Cody
Bellinger or Matt Chapman as well.
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