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#Post#: 482544--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: November 16, 2023, 3:05 pm
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My sense is that at least 90% (and probably higher) of trade/FA
sources are on the players side.
Who has the interest to spread rumors?
It’s the agents/players wanting to drum up interest, right?
Last year, it was kind of obvious that Cubs were in on the FA SS
market. Lots of agents, presumably, spreading the word on that.
And, Swanson was the most logical for Cubs—with the caveat of
possible Correa interest. Indeed, my recollection is that the
board here talked quite a bit about Correa too and how that
would be preferable for the Cubs.
Sharma/Mooney/Rogers were no different than the conventional
wisdom about the SSs. Doubt that any of that came from the Hoyer
inner circle. In fact, the Sharma/Mooney podcast occasionally
points out how closed-lip Hoyer tends to be.
Buster has said on his podcast how nothing comes out from the
Ohtani group. Closed-lips. And nothing is going to come out from
the Hoyer group. Everything I have read about Ohtani is media
speculation.
Sometimes, folks reading stuff from the media have difficulty
distinguishing between what is speculation and what is
source-based reporting.
I suspect that what will happen is that 10 minutes before a
formal announcement, Rosenthal or somebody else will get a
heads-up source-based scoop about Ohtani. Before that, it will
all be speculation.
#Post#: 482547--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: November 16, 2023, 3:17 pm
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I wasn't trying to really push that, and yeah, *IF* he can't
throw much, agree it's not good for him or for defense. Almost
certainly a dumb idea.
I was just kinda looking for some *unique* attraction that Hoyer
might maybe offer that perhaps other teams couldn't. Dodgers
aren't going to sit Freddie to give Shohei starts at 1B; but
with us having no 1B, we could allow for that. Even just the
possibility, *if* he wanted to and *if* his doctors said it was
fine. I don't know the comeback path, but I thought that
sometimes within 6 months guys were throwing long-toss and
stuff. So maybe tossing it back to the pitcher, or long-tossing
it to 3B wouldn't be beyond his scope? But assuming it isn't
safe to throw to 2B, or he doesn't want to, there would be no
attraction to even mention it.
Anything else *uniquely* appealing about the Cubs that Hoyer
would be able to showcase or use to separate us? Other than
outbidding the world?
Maybe signing Yamamoto, has there ever been a team with two
Japanese TORP guys? Or Imanaga, has any team ever had two
Japanese rotation starters at all, even if the second wasn't a
star?
#Post#: 482548--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: November 16, 2023, 3:47 pm
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Dumb question. Imagine the following. How close would this
take us to or over the lux line?
1. Imanaga rotation
2. Hoskins 1B
3. Chapman 3B
4. Relief help.
5. Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF
Q's:
1. Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take
us over?
2. Is that perhaps even more than Hoyer is willing to spend,
and even that is too much? He'd rather back off with a 3B more
in the Candelario-level price range? Or Gibson-cost rotation
guy versus Imanaga?
3. Blue, might that be the kind of pool of players that Hoyer
might be shooting for, do you think?
4. *IF* that was the winter action, would we be
disappointed/frustrated? Or OK with that, and take our chances
with the unpredictabilities of baseball?
5. Would that kind of a winter really surprise you? Or is that
kind of what you really expect, and signing any of Ohtani,
Bellinger, Yamamoto, or Hader would be a big and pleasant
surprise, but more pipe dream than actual expectation?
#Post#: 482550--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Playtwo Date: November 16, 2023, 3:53 pm
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I really hope they're able to snag one of Ohtani/Bellinger/Soto.
It's hard to see how they maintain or improve the offense
otherwise.
#Post#: 482551--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CurtOne Date: November 16, 2023, 4:09 pm
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Sorry if this sounds convoluted, but sometimes it can harm more
than hurt to be too close mouthed. Getting to know your
opponents ' thinking can be advantageous and denying rumors you
yourself started can help stir the pot. I often wonder how
often teams allow things, true or not, to slip out.
#Post#: 482553--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: November 16, 2023, 5:04 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=630.msg482544#msg482544
date=1700168740]
My sense is that at least 90% (and probably higher) of trade/FA
sources are on the players side. ...It’s the agents/players
wanting to drum up interest, right?
Last year, it was kind of obvious that Cubs were in on the FA SS
market. Lots of agents, presumably, spreading the word on that.
..[/quote]
Yeah, Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson agents can all confirm
Cubs have talked. At one point there was speculation that they
might even sign two of them, with Bogaerts sliding to 3B. Would
be curious if agents for Snell, Gray, and Montgomery have been
asked and what they'd say.
#Post#: 482554--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: November 16, 2023, 5:05 pm
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Kind of a funky FA scenario where both league Cy Youngs are
available, but neither is the top pitcher on the market.
#Post#: 482555--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: Reb Date: November 16, 2023, 5:08 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=630.msg482548#msg482548
date=1700171228]
….Imagine the following. How close would this take us to or
over the lux line?
1. Imanaga rotation
2. Hoskins 1B
3. Chapman 3B
4. Relief help.
5. Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF
Q's:
1. Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take
us over? …..
[/quote]
RR has Cubs at estimated $186-190 AAV 2024 currently, including
“player benefits” and the like.
Figure $20 Chapman, $18 Imanaga, $15 Hoskins, $10 for, say,
bullpen Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson.
That’s, say, $190 plus $63= $253.
First level CBT is $237. Second level CBT is $257.
#Post#: 482558--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: CurtOne Date: November 16, 2023, 5:35 pm
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"Dumb question. Imagine the following. How close would this
take us to or over the lux line?
1. Imanaga rotation
2. Hoskins 1B
3. Chapman 3B
4. Relief help.
5. Roll with Tauchman/PCA/Canario/Morel for CF
Q's:
1. Would that take us right to the lux line, or actually take
us over? "
Might get Hoyer to the unemployment line.
#Post#: 482559--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove
By: craig Date: November 16, 2023, 5:56 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=630.msg482555#msg482555
date=1700176129]
...Figure $20 Chapman, $18 Imanaga, $15 Hoskins, $10 for, say,
bullpen Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson.
That’s, say, $190 plus $63= $253. First level CBT is $237.
...[/quote]
Yeah, so that kind of distribution of non-star,
not-super-exciting acquisitions might be the way the money goes.
I'm guessing some of those prices are maybe a little high?
Senga was $14 last year, and he was much better guy than
Imanaga. But yeah, I could easily envision working with a group
of signings of that kind of style, no stars, not much long-term
guarantee.
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