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#Post#: 480874--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: ben Date: October 5, 2023, 8:49 am
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And, yes, I know Alonso will be a free agent after '24, but
Stearns/Mets will have ALL the MONEY they need (from Steve
Cohen) to pay any great player in '25 and beyond.
#Post#: 480877--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: davep Date: October 5, 2023, 8:52 am
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I like Happ. He is a very good player. But as a left fielder
only, he is quite easily replaced. And the strength of the farm
system then and now, is in outfielders. It is a shame that
Hoyer gave in to the pressure from media and fans, and extended
his contract, rather than trade him at peak value to the team.
And giving him a no-trade contract was horrible.
In my opinion, the third base position HAS to be given to Morel.
The Cubs have been so in love with the concept of making him a
Zobrist supersub that they have never given him a chance to
learn one position well. They forget that Zobrist supersubs are
so valuable because they are so rare. Most players are unable
to constantly change positions day to day and still maintain
consistant offensive production, let alone play each position at
a high skill level, and it seems like Morel falls into that
category.
Morel showed substantial improvement in power in 2022, and had a
breakout year in that category in 2023, showing that it probably
wasn't a "career year" kind of thing. He now has the power
profile that you want (and we currently need) at third base, and
has the athletic ability to do well at third base, given time
and experience. I remember the weeping, moaning and gnashing of
teeth when we got Aramis Ramirez from the Pirates. How could we
ever play that "butcher" at third base? Ramirez was never a
particularly good defensive third baseman, but his combination
of offense and defense made his acquisition a great one for the
Cubs. I think moving Morel to third would result in similar
value to the Cubs.
#Post#: 480878--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 5, 2023, 9:01 am
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I think the Cubs are hoping Shaw is the everyday third baseman
by the end of 2024.
#Post#: 480884--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: ben Date: October 5, 2023, 1:09 pm
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IF Shaw is the guy Cubs want to be at 3b long term (and he
appears to have terrific offensive upside), what about Cubs
working with Morel at 1B?
He certainly has the glove to play 1B and, though it would
largely waste his arm, his athleticism would help him some
there, too.
He'd likely develop into being better at 1B than Alonso and,
before too long, he's likely to become as good or better at the
plate.
Save the Alonso FA money for pitching...we certainly need more
quality pitching big time!
#Post#: 480885--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: ben Date: October 5, 2023, 1:17 pm
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And DaveP, I agree with your comparison of Morel potential to
Aramis Ramirez. No Brooks Robinson, but became solid there and
was a plus hitter!
As Ramirez matured, he worked harder and got even better results
into his late 20s, which I think there's a very good chance
Morel will do, too.
For what it may be worth: Morel's 21-y.o. younger brother,
Rafael (solid in low A this season), may develop into a MLB
prospect/player, also. Power, speed and may have some
positional versatility (as Christopher).
#Post#: 480892--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 5, 2023, 4:29 pm
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I'd be fine trying Morel at 1B. Baez actually played there a
bit when the Cubs were giving him the Morel treatment and he was
really spectacular (but his natural defensive gifts are off the
charts).
I'm not sold on Morel as a hitter TBH. If somebody was willing
to overpay for him I'd consider it.
#Post#: 480895--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 5, 2023, 5:42 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=628.msg480877#msg480877
date=1696513958]
…In my opinion, the third base position HAS to be given to
Morel. The Cubs have been so in love with the concept of making
him a Zobrist supersub that they have never given him a chance
to learn one position well. They forget that Zobrist supersubs
are so valuable because they are so rare. Most players are
unable to constantly change positions day to day and still
maintain consistant offensive production, let alone play each
position at a high skill level, and it seems like Morel falls
into that category…….
[/quote]
Cubs pretty much abandoned the notion of Morel as a “supersub”
in 2023. Think that’s an old story. When Hoerner was on IL,
Morel played some 2B as a fill-in. Never really in any OF
rotation. Overwhelmingly a DH. That’s what he was in 2023.
Best way to get a fix on what Cubs think about Morel defensively
is to look at what Cubs ACTUALLY are doing with Morel lately.
He was the Iowa 3B to open the season and then Cubs moved him
off of 3B. He then played OF at Iowa. That happened when Cubs
needed help at 3B. If Cubs thought he had a chance at 3B, then
why move him off 3B?
Cubs didn’t really need help in OF but that’s where he was moved
to at Iowa. Really can’t ignore that Cubs moved Morel off 3B.
Since the call-up, he’s been mostly a DH of course. Morel had 4
token starts at 3B since the call-up. Three of those four 3B
starts were in early July when Wisdom was on IL and Mastrobuoni
was in minors.
So, I pose this question: If 3B “has to be given to Morel” then
why did Cubs pull him off 3B at Iowa this season and then not
play him at 3B in majors thereafter hardly at all??
Doesn’t that tell us something important?
Cubs have tried to develop Morel at 3B in minors. 153 game
starts at 3B. That’s way more games at the 3B position in minors
than any other position he played there. Evidence is
overwhelming that Cubs don’t like him at 3B.
#Post#: 480925--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: ben Date: October 6, 2023, 6:56 am
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Those are good points, Reb, and I'll agree it's quite possible
Morel will never be able to play MLB 3b (Cubs say he didn't
master the 3b arm stroke).
However, what's also true is that he played the vast, vast
majority of his MiLB 3b innings as a pre-pandemic teen (909 of
his 1032 3b innings) before 2020 (in which he didn't play).
He was rushed to the majors and played most of his MiLB innings
at 5 other positions (1032 mostly pre-pandemic innings at 3b,
1145 other positions, including 227 at SS).
My theory is that, most guys who can play decent SS and have a
strong arm, can - with good development - get the 3b arm stroke
down.
Maybe Morel will be an outlier and just can't do it, but my best
guess is Cubs will work him there unless they feel they must put
Shaw there...if so, work Morel at 1b...where he likely could
become pretty solid. (with his infield background)
Development is hard to guess - some can adjust, some can't. But,
unlike Deeg and others, I think Morel's bat has significant
upside and he can do other things.
I'd say we'd be potentially making a huge mistake to include him
in a package with uber-sharp Stearns for '25 free agent Alonso,
who hits prodigious HRs (but so does/will Morel most likely).
#Post#: 480964--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 7, 2023, 1:19 am
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[quote author=ben link=topic=628.msg480925#msg480925
date=1696593379]
……Development is hard to guess - some can adjust, some can't.
But, unlike Deeg and others, I think Morel's bat has significant
upside and he can do other things. I'd say we'd be potentially
making a huge mistake to include him in a package with
uber-sharp Stearns for '25 free agent Alonso, who hits
prodigious HRs (but so does/will Morel most likely).
[/quote]
Ben- Putting aside the issue of Morel’s defensive position, I
get the enthusiasm for Morel’s offense. After all, he slugged
.500 or so for the season (albeit boosted by his fantastic first
50 PAs) and had a nice final month (.886 OPS). His wRC+ (119)
was identical to Kyle Schwarber.
His lack of defensive value in 2023, however, resulted in a bWAR
of only 1.2 and 1.4 fWAR. That’s in only 429 PAs, so we could
prorate for a full season to 2 WAR——an average regular
(Schwarber was 1.4 fWAR and 0.7 bWAR in 720 PAs).
As Schwarber’s WAR numbers show, bad defense or little or no
defensive value really limits that player’s measurement of
value. But, Morel can run a bit, can throw from the OF, and will
still be 24 for almost 1/2 of next season. If I was a club that
had a spot in RF for him, I’d be very interested in him as a
regular.
As a player with multiple years of control, I can appreciate the
argument that Morel should not be traded for a rental. Perhaps
Cubs would be doing Morel a favor trading him somewhere to play
RF but if he slugs .500/119 wRC+ again, he’s a legit DH bat too.
#Post#: 480965--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 7, 2023, 3:00 am
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I think Morel’s greatest value is to a team that will play him
regularly at 2B. That’s not us. So if that team is out there
and making an offer, I’d certainly pick up the phone.
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