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#Post#: 481818--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 31, 2023, 8:19 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> ...I don’t see where Cubs individually over-performed
offensively in 2023. Of course doesn’t necessarily mean no
falloff from 2023 guys to 2024. It’s baseball. My point is not
to retain the status quo but that there may well be internal
upgrades for 2024 in the system already.
>
> As to 2023 #3 NL runs scored, DH and non-Bellinger 1B was poor
and could be upgraded. Swanson and Happ actually were better
offensively in 2022. Maybe can be bit better in 2024. Gomes was
very close to career norm and no Barnhart in 2024. Hoerner maybe
bit better with bat in 2024? I’m looking at Shaw seriously for
Sept and post-season, presumably 3B. PCA (inc. defense) as high
WAR guy later in season. Maybe pleasant surprise from Canario or
Mervis or deadline acquisition(s).
>
> No reason for 2024 downgrade other than unpredictability of
baseball. Works both ways.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
There's possibility to improve internally, yes. I do think some
downturn is somewhat more probable, though? One framework is to
ask whether if a guy's output chnages, whether it's more likely
to drop or to rise.
1. Gomes maybe wasn't far above career norm, but it's not super
common for 36-year-olds to perform above career norm. Lots more
likely to drop than rise.
2. Bellinger at .881 OPS, hard to sustain that. Drop more
likely than rise.
3. Morel, .821 OPS, hard to sustain that. Drop more likely
than rise. Also, there's a book on him now.
4. Tauchman, hard to sustain what he did. Drop more likely
than rise.
5. Suzuki, .842 OPS. Drop more likely than rise.
Hoerner, I'd think maybe more likely to rise than to drop? I
might think that for Happ, too? But those seem relatively
unlikely to change much.
#Post#: 481820--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 31, 2023, 8:27 pm
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I don't necessarily agree Suzuki is more likely to drop,
considering how good his second half was. Maybe he just figured
out MLB.
Bellinger is the toughest nut to crack. With his injuries and
massive production swings and those deeply cautionary contact
numbers, he's an extremely hard guy to project. Which makes him
a huge risk/reward FA.
#Post#: 481823--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 31, 2023, 8:47 pm
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Gomes was 95 wRC+ but Cubs were 82 wRC+ at catcher in 2023——of
course because of Barnhart.
Amaya was 94 wRC+ and maybe improves a bit in 2024? So, don’t
see a likely offensive downgrade at the position in 2024 without
automatic out Barnhart.
DH is kind of similar but more so. Morel was 119 wRC+ but Cubs
were 89 wRC+ at DH because of awful PAs by others. Big
opportunity for a team upgrade there.
Here’s an idea. Sign free agent Mitch Garver, who is unlikely to
be a big ticket. Seems like Morel is in some demand around
baseball and could be traded for a nice piece. Replace him at DH
with Garver (123 career wRC+), who could also be used as a
fill-in catcher if Amaya falters some.
#Post#: 481824--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 31, 2023, 8:54 pm
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Will be very surprised if Suzuki doesn’t al least maintain his
overall 2023 offensive production.
Had a lengthy adjustment process to MLB and then hit his stride.
Of course baseball is a constant adjustment process between
pitchers and hitters but really like his chances to look similar
to the second-half Suzuki of 2023.
#Post#: 481829--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 1, 2023, 1:30 am
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Jim Bowden has his FA contract projections out.
Has Candelario at 2/$15. That seems WAAAAAY too low.
Matt Chapman is more appealing than Candelario, yes, but Bowden
has Chapman at 6/$127 and Candelario at 2/$15. Weird.
FWIW Bowden has Bellinger at 6/$144. Perhaps the BBF moderators
can accept on behalf of Hoyer if he’s vacationing somewhere now
and not taking calls. If that’s Bellinger’s current market
value, Boras is going to keep Bellinger out there well into next
year waiting for more.
#Post#: 481846--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 1, 2023, 2:36 pm
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If the Cubs are willing to go over more than 3 years in a row,
then they have no chance at being good again. Delaying spending
1 year will just make guys like Swanson closer to decline.
#Post#: 481849--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: November 1, 2023, 3:00 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> If the Cubs are willing to go over more than 3 years in a row,
then they have no chance at being good again....
--- End Quote ---
I think you mean "unwilling", not "willing"? Otherwise I'm very
confused.
#Post#: 481850--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: davep
Date: November 1, 2023, 3:34 pm
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If it will take being over the luxury tax limit for more than
three years to be good again, they I guess they won't be good
again.
#Post#: 481851--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 1, 2023, 3:38 pm
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Anybody who thinks they have a handle on Cubs 2026/2027 payroll
needs should immediately apply for a high-paying job in MLB.
You are prescient and should be in high demand.
#Post#: 481853--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: November 1, 2023, 4:00 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> If it will take being over the luxury tax limit for more than
three years to be good again, they I guess they won't be good
again.
>
--- End Quote ---
Dave, I don't know that I understand the CBA super well, so my
thoughts might be flawed.
But I don't think the penalties on 3-repeat are as severe as in
the previous CBA. Less severe financially; much less severe in
terms of draft-choice penalty.
Again, my perception might be flawed. But my understanding is
that part of the CBA negotiation involved reducing the level of
penalty that disincentivized big-market teams from spending over
lux and staying over lux.
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