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#Post#: 481766--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 31, 2023, 2:14 am
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I mean, Seiya was .938 2nd half and over 1.000 (comfortably)
Aug-Oct. If he did that for the full season he’d be the best
hitter on almost every team in baseball.
#Post#: 481782--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 31, 2023, 1:19 pm
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Garver was in 1/2 season worth of PAs and Carter in Sept only.
That supports my point: things change during the season and get
roster in place late for post-season. Suzuki exceeded Garcia and
Semien. Almost identical to Marte (127-126).
Only real star on Rangers was Seager—accompanied by bunch of
quality performers and anti-awful regulars. It’s a good formula.
Lots of different ways to be very good—that has been the story
of baseball for over a century. There is no firm formula for
success. Baseball history is fun. Read up.
#Post#: 481793--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 31, 2023, 2:58 pm
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The Rangers had multiple guys producing like Suzuki or Suzuki.
The Rangers had a wRC+ of 114 as a team. Only Bellinger, Suzuki
and Happ exceeded that on the Cubs as regulars. You could add
Morel to the list, but since he only had 80ish more PA than
Garver I'm not sure where that falls on the Reb should we ignore
it list.
The fact of the matter is the last month of the season the
Rangers had 5 guys producing like Suzuki in their lineup. That
is the offense we should be looking to try to build. That is
the type of offense the 2016 Cubs had. Build that. Build
something worthwhile and quit trying to polish turds.
#Post#: 481795--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 31, 2023, 3:37 pm
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Yeah, “the last month of the season.” That’s the point you’re
apparently coming around to. It’s the reality of change in
baseball. It’s fluid.
Ditto for DBacks bullpen. Sometimes it happens with starting
rotation. It's the sheer unpredictability of baseball. Where you
end up at crunch time isn’t necessarily how it may look earlier.
Cubs have guys already in system who can impact late 2024 too.
PCA is a wild card. 200+ PAs at AAA and he may well be an impact
WAR player after the break. Shaw has many of the prospect traits
of Evan Carter. DH is another spot that can be used smartly to
get significant production—maybe it’s a more consistent Morel or
something else, like Canario or even Mervis. Or another guy. All
plausible. Cubs were tied at #25/26 in majors at wRC+ for DH.
Moving into top 10 at DH would be huge lift for overall offense.
Don’t see any disagreement that Rangers only great offensive guy
is Seager. Depth of their offense all through lineup from #1-9
is the key for them.
Other thing to recognize is that position players aren’t just
about offense. Swanson-Hoerner-PCA defense up-the-middle could
be historically great. Other potential gold glove guys at other
positions too. Team defense is a big deal as we saw with 2016
Cubs.
Aside from Bellinger, think key to improving Cubs for 2024 is
pitching. Think internal position player group in organization
has makings of a legit WS club. Once again, Cubs #3 in NL in
runs scored this season. Can choose to pretend otherwise, but
it’s a stone cold fact.
#Post#: 481798--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: davep
Date: October 31, 2023, 4:04 pm
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> I don't see the Cubs spening $200 million on a Japanese
pitcher, and that's probably what it's going to take.
>
--- End Quote ---
They might go 6 or even 7 years for a pitcher this age. I think
that 7 years, 175 million would get him.
#Post#: 481799--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: davep
Date: October 31, 2023, 4:24 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I think we could argue that maybe it's still a year too early,
that without Bellinger we're not really that close; and that we
don't really have rookies very ready. PCA isn't ready, Horton
isn't really quite there yet, Amaya, Shaw, Ballesteros, Caissie,
Canario, Brown, Horton, Little, none of these guys are ready to
be trusted with much responsibility yet. A year from now, we
might have a way better idea of what we've got, and some of
those guys might be much more ready to be solid decent or
perhaps even asset contributors, to take over a position for
cheap and let the money flow for those positions uncovered.
And I think a year from now, assuming some of those guys get a
year closer to majors or regular role, without all flopping, I
think some of those guys might have much stronger trade value.
>
> reb would like Glasnow; don't think Canario or Caissie or
Brown are guys who could be the main guy in a Glasnow trade.
But a year from now, maybe we really can have huge trade power?
>
> But yeah, I think Ricketts will want to jump the lux line and
get rolling now, and then have those prospects be trade-deadline
value to add more help where needed, if the season is going
well.
>
--- End Quote ---
I think you are right that it is still a year too early. As I
read Hoyer, unlike Epstein, he is committed to a long term plan
to remain competitive very long term, rather than weakening the
future for a current benefit.
The Cubs have gone over the luxury tax limit, and will do it
again. But the problem is not with going over the tax limit,
but staying there for more than three years. That is where the
severe limits kick in. Very few teams are willing to do it on a
perminant basis, and I am sure that the Cubs are not one of
them. Nor do I see them stripping the farm system for small
increases in current value that will come back to bite them
later, necessitating a tanking and rebuilding.
As you said, I think they are a year too early to shoot their
wad in an attempt to win it all this year. Horton is probably
not ready. PCA might very well not be ready. And it is much
too early to properly evaluate prospects, almost all of which
have not had even AAA experience. If they can bring in another
foundation piece this winter, they will have done a good job.
Going over the limit this year means that they will have to cut
back either in 2025 or 2026, when they are much more likely to
need the flexibility.
Let's not make the same mistake that Epstein made.
#Post#: 481800--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 31, 2023, 4:48 pm
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"Let's not make the same mistake that Epstein made."
Theo or Jeffrey?
#Post#: 481805--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 31, 2023, 5:54 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
> Yeah, “the last month of the season.” That’s the point you’re
apparently coming around to. It’s the reality of change in
baseball. It’s fluid. ..
>
> ...Aside from Bellinger, think key to improving Cubs for 2024
is pitching. Think internal position player group in
organization has makings of a legit WS club. Once again, Cubs #3
in NL in runs scored this season. Can choose to pretend
otherwise, but it’s a stone cold fact
--- End Quote ---
reb, it was a stone-cold fact... for 2023. 2024 will be a new
season! Who knows? We'd like to get better. But one key is
to not get worse. I think it requires effort to avoid getting
worse.
1. As you note, Bellinger is a variable. Replacing Bellinger
with Tauchman and PCA, it will be hard to hold serve as
3rd-in-runs.
2. If Bellinger returns, there is still risk of regression
towards the mean. Cubs were 8th in HR's and tied with
Washington for 5th/6th in average. If we re-sign Bellinger and
mostly bring back the September lineup, might we still come
variably short of 3rd-in-runs next season?
3. I'd surely rather give that a shot, than to bring it back
without Bellinger!!! With improved bullpen and perhaps also
rotation, coming back with 3rd-in-runs personal could be fun.
Aspiring to playoffs could be variably plausible.
4. It's possible that Morel/Canario/PCA/Amaya/Mervis might
improve, and improve the team. Or a summer trade.
5. But yeah, there's also risk that in bringing the same
personnel back, even with Bellinger, that the offense might
regress.
6. Bellinger, Gomes, Morel, Suzuki, Wisdom, Swanson, Tauchman,
Candelario, we're loaded with guys who might regress to variable
extent.
7. I'd really like to both bring Bellinger back, AND add
another asset bat.
8. And reinforce the bullpen.
9. And reinforce the rotation!
#Post#: 481809--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 31, 2023, 6:21 pm
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Yeah, that’s the thing——allocation of resources.
Of course could add to Cubs offense and the more the merrier
scoring runs and all that. But, bang for the buck. Think it’s
pitching.
I don’t see where Cubs individually over-performed offensively
in 2023. Of course doesn’t necessarily mean no falloff from 2023
guys to 2024. It’s baseball. My point is not to retain the
status quo but that there may well be internal upgrades for 2024
in the system already.
As to 2023 #3 NL runs scored, DH and non-Bellinger 1B was poor
and could be upgraded. Swanson and Happ actually were better
offensively in 2022. Maybe can be bit better in 2024. Gomes was
very close to career norm and no Barnhart in 2024. Hoerner maybe
bit better with bat in 2024? I’m looking at Shaw seriously for
Sept and post-season, presumably 3B. PCA (inc. defense) as high
WAR guy later in season. Maybe pleasant surprise from Canario or
Mervis or deadline acquisition(s).
No reason for 2024 downgrade other than unpredictability of
baseball. Works both ways.
#Post#: 481815--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 31, 2023, 7:53 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> ... If they can bring in another foundation piece this winter,
they will have done a good job. Going over the limit this year
means that they will have to cut back either in 2025 or 2026,
when they are much more likely to need the flexibility. ...
--- End Quote ---
Dave, if they both bring Bellinger back AND add another
foundation piece, that would be very productive. Whether that
be a hitter or a pitcher. But like you, I'm not motivated to
pay a heavy price in prospects for a rental. I'd like to add
talent using the $$ resource, not via a talent-for-talent
exchange.
Dave, I'm not sure how much flexibility would be needed in
25-26? Part of the dream is that the farm produces good players
who become asset starters. Happ and Suzuki contracts go off,
what if prospects are thriving and can replace and upgrade them,
at no cost? What if Stroman and Taillon and Hendricks are
getting replaced by prospects who are both REALLY good but also
really cheap? With an ideally more steady stream of talent
developing, perhaps the budget won't need to go crazy?
I'm also not so sure how awful going over the line is? Suppose
they go over back-to-back-to-back. In 2026, the line is $244.
Imagine they spend $260 in 2026 in their 3rd-straight year over.
The penalty would be $8M. If you've got a good team packing
Wrigley and getting playoff revenue, would an $8M penalty on a
$260 budget be that meaningful of a showstopper? $8M out of
$260 is 3%. Hoyer spent $20.5 to get Trey Mancini and Tucker
Barnhart, I'm not sure an $8M cost in 2026 would be a huge deal.
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