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#Post#: 481751--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 30, 2023, 5:42 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> I think that the Cubs will go strongly after one free agent
this winter. My hope is that it is Yamamoto. There hitting is
adequate, considering that most of the strength of their minor
system is on the offensive side. Yamamoto might give them a top
of the rotation starter, to hopefully be matched with Horton in
the reasonable future. In my opinion, a much better use of
their money.
>
> Of course, that depends upon the price and length of the
contract.
>
--- End Quote ---
Dave, I think it will depend on what the goal is. Pure rebuild,
maybe tank if things don't all go ideal? Is it like last year,
stay under the lux line, and do the best you can with a lux-line
cap? Or is the priority to win more games, and make the
playoffs, at the expense of jumping the lux line? I think the
latter.
I think they're ready to jump the lux line. Hoyer/Rickets are
tired of tanking and called cheap; both liked the August fun of
winning, being in playoff mix, and having Wrigley popping.
Hoyer/Ricketts want to get better and into the playoffs. Their
time is right to jump the lux line.
I expect they'll be at least *willing* to spend on more than one
significant guy. Or maybe just one, but with spread more
over-lux dollars around (bullpen, 1B, 3B, CF, DH).
*Willing* may not mean *will". They calculate values for
Bellinger and Alonso and Yamamoto, and will be willing to go
beyond lux; but real prices may go nuts and they'll end up
thinking the value isn't right? Or they may be willing, but
players choose other offers, like Senga chose Mets over Hoyer's
significantly higher offer?
If Bellinger leaves and they simply replace him with one salary,
it's dog-paddling. Hard for one salary to outperfom or match
what Bellinger did. That could portend a regression season.
And if you replace Bellinger with Tauchman/PCA, the offense
could regress pretty seriously.
#Post#: 481752--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: October 30, 2023, 6:03 pm
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I don't think the issue is so much that Hoyer is tired of
tanking (though I'm sure he is) but rather that the organization
is in a much stronger position to be able to seriously contend
by adding the right pieces. It shouldn't be prohibitively
expensive to accomplish this (though exceeding the lux will be
necessary). Finding and nabbing the right pieces will likely be
a bigger issue than the willingness to pony up the money (and
prospects).
#Post#: 481756--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: JeffH
Date: October 30, 2023, 7:56 pm
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P2, you can't afford to be this naive. Ricketts won't release
the money and, even if he would, Hoyer doesn't have the guts to
spend it.
The Cubs have once again embraced their place as the worst
organization in professional sports (non-Chicago Bears
division).
It's a sad state of affairs.
#Post#: 481757--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 30, 2023, 8:16 pm
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Yeah, Cubs need to either re-sign Bellinger or get a similar
guy. True.
Aside from that, would prefer to see Cubs use resources to
upgrade pitching, not position players.
To repeat for umpteenth time, Cubs were #6 in majors and #3 in
NL in runs scored. Was not just Bellinger.
Cubs OF as a group was #3 in majors in wRC+. Bellinger at 134,
Suzuki at 126, Happ at 118. Suzuki second-half had slash line of
313-372-566. Suzuki is an impact bat. He’s a legit 2nd best bat
on a WS caliber club.
Look at the Rangers in WS. Rangers have one star position player
and a very good-to-anti-awful guy everywhere else. Suzuki had a
better wRC+ than Semien or Garcia or whoever you consider their
second best position player.
Rangers have guys who can hit at bottom of lineup, a catcher who
can hit some and bat #6, and at least an average guy everywhere.
Got poor production from DH until Garver took over there and
raked. No excuse not to fill DH with a solid bat at some point
in season. Then, in Sept, up comes Even Carter.
Cubs at #6 in runs scored need that Bellinger-type bat, yes.
Suzuki returns as an impact bat. Don’t really need anything else
to have a post-season type group of position players, so long as
anti-awful everywhere (like the Rangers) and would be good to
see a surprise young guy emerge somewhere at some point of
season. That guy could be PCA second-half if could do wRC+ near
100. With his defense, could be 4 WAR player (or more). Then
there’s Matt Shaw. Shaw is a year OLDER than Evan Carter and
could see him a significant factor late in season, like Carter
this season. Who knows, maybe Canario gets in that DH/corner OF
rotation in a major way. Or somebody elsr.
Baseball is fluid and unpredictable. Can’t know or even project
in October 2023 what a lineup may be producing in Sept/Oct 2024.
Anybody who tells you otherwise with certainty is BSing. Get in
the post-season and have your late-season lineup producing and
you have a decent chance to advance over even 100-win clubs who
peak early or have a few cold-producing guys at crunch time. If
you’re not learning stuff from the 2023 post-season, you’re not
paying attention.
#Post#: 481758--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 30, 2023, 8:31 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
If you assume Ricketts won’t go over CBT thresholds, then Cubs
can’t both re-sign Bellinger (or similar guy) and upgrade
pitching in major way.
But, let’s see how that turns out. Remains to be seen.
Way I look at it is that Cubs have been over CBT in past years
under Ricketts. Had top 5 or 6 payroll in MLB. Then, when COVID
hit, Cubs were in process of the Wrigleyville development and
got ambushed with diminished revenues while Wrigleyville loan
payments were payable. Shame on them for this linkage. Didn’t
have to impact player payroll this way but appears that’s what
probably happened. Ricketts even substantially cut Cubs
staffing. Boo.
But, different situation now. Cubs won 83 games and a 84-win
club is playing in WS.
Cubs probably need a $250 payroll at some point in 2024 season
to do what should be done, right near the 2nd CBT level. Let’s
see. I have no idea what Ricketts will do.
#Post#: 481759--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 30, 2023, 8:37 pm
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Would love to see Cubs explore a trade for Glasnow. Yeah, I
know, has never exceeded 120 IP in any season and one-year left
on contract at $25.
But, wow, this guy is lights out when healthy and rocking. TOR
guy. Glasnow-Steele-Stroman-Hendricks-Taillon. That could be
best rotation in NL with some luck.
#Post#: 481760--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 30, 2023, 8:42 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> I don't think the issue is so much that Hoyer is tired of
tanking (though I'm sure he is) but rather that the organization
is in a much stronger position to be able to seriously contend
by adding the right pieces. It shouldn't be prohibitively
expensive to accomplish this (though exceeding the lux will be
necessary). Finding and nabbing the right pieces will likely be
a bigger issue than the willingness to pony up the money (and
prospects).
--- End Quote ---
Yeah, I think they have enough skeleton pieces now, and have
prospects that are graduating and approaching. Most of the lead
prospects are in the high minors or have already kinda
graduated, so the time is right to try harder and spend harder.
I do think Hoyer is tired of waiting, so while perhaps he should
wait another year, I doubt he wants to. I think Ricketts is
tired of being called cheap, and I think as a fan, he thought it
was fun to be winning and having Wrigley popping in August. So
I think he's kinda ready to spend and try to get better and take
the next step in the rebuild. But yeah, I kinda feel like to
really take the next step, he'd be kinda willing to add both two
asset players, AND deepen/improve the bullpen.
Bring back Bellinger, sign somebody else who's good, strengthen
the pen, and let it rip.
Bellinger seems to make so much sense, actually. His age
appeals, and he doesn't project to age terribly. CF/1B, what
could be a better fit for two positions that are biggest
cavities? He likes it here. He's a good chemist. Hard to
really find a guy who'd be a better fit for where we're at.
#Post#: 481761--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 30, 2023, 8:50 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I think we could argue that maybe it's still a year too early,
that without Bellinger we're not really that close; and that we
don't really have rookies very ready. PCA isn't ready, Horton
isn't really quite there yet, Amaya, Shaw, Ballesteros, Caissie,
Canario, Brown, Horton, Little, none of these guys are ready to
be trusted with much responsibility yet. A year from now, we
might have a way better idea of what we've got, and some of
those guys might be much more ready to be solid decent or
perhaps even asset contributors, to take over a position for
cheap and let the money flow for those positions uncovered.
And I think a year from now, assuming some of those guys get a
year closer to majors or regular role, without all flopping, I
think some of those guys might have much stronger trade value.
reb would like Glasnow; don't think Canario or Caissie or Brown
are guys who could be the main guy in a Glasnow trade. But a
year from now, maybe we really can have huge trade power?
But yeah, I think Ricketts will want to jump the lux line and
get rolling now, and then have those prospects be trade-deadline
value to add more help where needed, if the season is going
well.
#Post#: 481762--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 30, 2023, 11:01 pm
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Ricketts’ and Jed’s comments on the CBT sound eerily like
Reinsdorf and AKME. Maybe he’ll go back into the tax, maybe
not. Maybe he got his championship and now it’s all about
making Dad as much money as possible. Anyone who assumes the
Cubs will spend in a manner commensurate with their resources is
taking an awful lot on faith. They might - at some point - but
the proof is in their actions, not their words.
#Post#: 481764--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 31, 2023, 12:41 am
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Segar 169, Garver 138, Siemen 124, Garcia 124, Carter 180
I like Suzuki a lot, it would be fantastic if the second half
Suzuki shows up for a whole year. The Cubs still need a lot
more hitting than Suzuki and Happ to be good on offense.
Suzuki wouldn’t have even been the second best hitter on the
Dbacks. Carroll and Marte both out hit him. The Dbacks
winning 84 games in the NL West is a lot harder to do than the
Cubs winning 83 games in the Central.
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