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#Post#: 481735--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Dave23
Date: October 30, 2023, 10:29 am
---------------------------------------------------------
That’s a great piece. I especially liked the discussion re:
Bellinger’s “weak contact numbers”, and this comment from Kelly…
Hitting coach Dustin Kelly believed a lot of Bellinger’s soft
contact was due to his focus on just putting the ball in play
with two strikes. Watching Bellinger, you could see him shorten
up with two strikes, trying to do whatever he could to bloop a
single into the short outfield. Presented with this idea, all
four scouts agreed it was real.
“We’ve gone so far down the elevate and celebrate path that
absolutely yes, that’s a skill,” Scout A said. “I don’t want to
sound like Clint Eastwood, a get-off-my-lawn person, but there
are players and teams that are finally doing this again and it
stands out. It is extremely a skill.”
I probably watched 150+ games this season. This is an absolute
fact. With 2 strikes, Bellinger was more than happy to stick the
bat out and poke the ball the other way, with great success
doing so.
#Post#: 481738--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 30, 2023, 11:52 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for link, Ron. Yes, that was an excellent article, and
as you said the perspectives were interesting, and as you said
the level of harmony within their views was surprisingly high.
Dave, agree with your and Kelly's thoughts about the
exit-velocity.
Interesting that none of them thought Soto made sense, given the
prospect cost. We've got a few prospects for a change, but it's
not like we've got such a super-abundant depth that we can
sacrifice a lot for a 1-year Soto. *IF* you can hypothetically
get him for as little as Wesneski and Morel, sure that's fine,
for 1 year and a draft pick. But I don't want to sell the farm
for a 1-year DH rental.
Interesting that one of those scouts preferred Alonso over
Bellinger for 1B.
I kind of agree with Scouts B and D, who talked about both
signing Bellinger and also acquiring/paying one of the other
two. Super tough with Soto: as Boras guy, he's not extending
now, and who knows what it will cost to extend him next winter?
But I can see a logic where you trade for Alonso and try to stay
on the Bellinger chase. *IF* Bellinger runs it till Jan 30 and
you lose him, it's disappointing, but you might still have a
chance to make 2014 interesting. Alonso's cost isn't
Soto-level, so I think it's more plausible to acquire him
without gutting the farm system. If you acquire Alonso in
December, and do spend what it takes to reel in Bellinger in
late January, then suddenly you've got hopes for a lineup that
could be deep and be a HR-strong lineup, in the event that
Alonso bounces back to his more typical .250-.340-.870 type
rates.
My guess is that Ricketts/Hoyer would be willing to jump past
the lux line for this year to cover both Bellinger and Alonso.
Whether Hoyer would want to be signing both to long multi-year
big-dollar deals, that I don't know. If not, that might perhaps
be more Hoyer than Ricketts, though?
#Post#: 481741--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 30, 2023, 12:19 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Dave23 link ---
>
> That’s a great piece. I especially liked the discussion re:
Bellinger’s “weak contact numbers”, and this comment from Kelly…
>
> Hitting coach Dustin Kelly believed a lot of Bellinger’s soft
contact was due to his focus on just putting the ball in play
with two strikes. Watching Bellinger, you could see him shorten
up with two strikes, trying to do whatever he could to bloop a
single into the short outfield. Presented with this idea, all
four scouts agreed it was real.
>
> “We’ve gone so far down the elevate and celebrate path that
absolutely yes, that’s a skill,” Scout A said. “I don’t want to
sound like Clint Eastwood, a get-off-my-lawn person, but there
are players and teams that are finally doing this again and it
stands out. It is extremely a skill.”
>
> I probably watched 150+ games this season. This is an absolute
fact. With 2 strikes, Bellinger was more than happy to stick the
bat out and poke the ball the other way, with great success
doing so.
>
--- End Quote ---
Every time I heard the stathead concern about hard-hit being
down this year, I thought about his k rate being down and his
hits with two strikes. Gotta take that into the whole picture.
#Post#: 481742--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 30, 2023, 12:21 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> Meanwhile, Sharma has a column in which he asked several
(anonymous) scouts questions about Bellinger and the Cubs. They
also discussed Soto and Alonso as well. I thought the views of
the scouts were pretty interesting, with a great deal of
agreement between the scouts.
>
>
HTML https://theathletic.com/5010527/2023/10/30/cody-bellinger-mlb-scouts-free-agency/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail
>
--- End Quote ---
Of course, on one hand, none of those scouts have the headache
Hoyer has of making the money work, and, on the other hand,
they're all smarter than Hoyer.
#Post#: 481743--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 30, 2023, 12:30 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
You can tell Scout B&D won't be working for the Cubs anytime
soon...
“I think the Cubs are a team that has the financial might to
where they ought to sign Bellinger and then trade for one of
those guys,” Scout D said. “That’s their competitive advantage.
They haven’t been willing to flex it as much lately. They have
dollars to spend, they have prospects. Acquire these guys, pay
them and build a really strong team.”
“I would consider signing Bellinger and trading for Alonso
without giving him an extension,” Scout B said. “Now you
lengthen your lineup considerably and you have more power
throughout that lineup. We’ve seen it all in the playoffs the
last several seasons. If you’re going to win, it’s really hard
to get three, four hits in an inning to score. A lot of these
teams are winning because they can hit the ball out of the
ballpark.”
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Thanks for link, Ron. Yes, that was an excellent article, and
as you said the perspectives were interesting, and as you said
the level of harmony within their views was surprisingly high.
>
> Dave, agree with your and Kelly's thoughts about the
exit-velocity.
> I kind of agree with Scouts B and D, who talked about both
signing Bellinger and also acquiring/paying one of the other
two. Super tough with Soto: as Boras guy, he's not extending
now, and who knows what it will cost to extend him next winter?
>
> But I can see a logic where you trade for Alonso and try to
stay on the Bellinger chase. *IF* Bellinger runs it till Jan 30
and you lose him, it's disappointing, but you might still have a
chance to make 2014 interesting. Alonso's cost isn't
Soto-level, so I think it's more plausible to acquire him
without gutting the farm system. If you acquire Alonso in
December, and do spend what it takes to reel in Bellinger in
late January, then suddenly you've got hopes for a lineup that
could be deep and be a HR-strong lineup, in the event that
Alonso bounces back to his more typical .250-.340-.870 type
rates.
>
> My guess is that Ricketts/Hoyer would be willing to jump past
the lux line for this year to cover both Bellinger and Alonso.
Whether Hoyer would want to be signing both to long multi-year
big-dollar deals, that I don't know. If not, that might perhaps
be more Hoyer than Ricketts, though?
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
If the Cubs don't go over the luxury tax in a significant way
the 2024 Cubs are likely going to worse than the 2023 Cubs.
#Post#: 481744--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 30, 2023, 12:43 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://theathletic.com/4949520/2023/10/10/mets-pete-alonso-free-agent-aging/
An article with some scouts talking about Alonso. He's yet
another Boras guy. So I don't imagine he's going to extend with
a team that would trade for him.
He speaks proudly and unrealistically about his defense. Don't
think he's eager to admit his defense should make him a DH only,
so doubt he's eager to sign a contract premised on him being
mostly DH.
*IF* the Cubs hypothetically (prohibitively improbable, of
course...) acquired him and extended both Alonso and Bellinger,
I don't think having Happ-Seiya-Bellinger-Alonso plus PCA, 5
guys for 4 defensive spots, is excessive. With injuries, you
often want a extra guy. With DH, you have a spot for an extra.
Maybe that would be Alonso and/or Suzuki a lot; but might it be
good for Bellinger and Happ to each get a DH-rest-day every 4 or
7 days?
PCA, who knows? Will he ever hit enough to be an asset starter?
If so when? Will he mature into an every-day guy, or more of a
RHP-only platoon guy? Happ and Suzuki only have 3 years left.
So, for example, I could imagine:
*2014, PCA in minors improving his bat.
*2015, PCA in majors as a
situational/part-time/share-time/prove-it guy.
*2016, PCA established and qualified for starting regularly.
But by then, Suzuki and Happ are both expiring. Having one
season where PCA is qualified to start and shares with two
expirings doesn't seem problematic in a world with DH.
#Post#: 481747--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: JeffH
Date: October 30, 2023, 2:33 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Has Craig ever mentioned that he loves the DH?
#Post#: 481748--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: davep
Date: October 30, 2023, 4:29 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I think that the Cubs will go strongly after one free agent this
winter. My hope is that it is Yamamoto. There hitting is
adequate, considering that most of the strength of their minor
system is on the offensive side. Yamamoto might give them a top
of the rotation starter, to hopefully be matched with Horton in
the reasonable future. In my opinion, a much better use of
their money.
Of course, that depends upon the price and length of the
contract.
#Post#: 481749--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 30, 2023, 4:55 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Not much point in mentioning Stroman, since whether or not he
is on the Cubs payroll next year depends only upon Stroman. The
Cubs have no say in the matter.
>
--- End Quote ---
They have the option to trade him. He doesn't have a NTC.
#Post#: 481750--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 30, 2023, 4:56 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> I think that the Cubs will go strongly after one free agent
this winter. My hope is that it is Yamamoto. There hitting is
adequate, considering that most of the strength of their minor
system is on the offensive side. Yamamoto might give them a top
of the rotation starter, to hopefully be matched with Horton in
the reasonable future. In my opinion, a much better use of
their money.
>
> Of course, that depends upon the price and length of the
contract.
>
--- End Quote ---
I don't see the Cubs spening $200 million on a Japanese pitcher,
and that's probably what it's going to take.
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