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#Post#: 481684--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: October 29, 2023, 10:28 am
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I guess we differ on what constitutes "going all in".
#Post#: 481691--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 29, 2023, 6:50 pm
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Unless the Cubs spend well above the luxury tax or their
prospects significantly outperform their rankings getting above
a .500 team is going to be hard.
I take a lot of heat for not wanting to sign Swanson and this is
why.
#Post#: 481692--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 29, 2023, 7:19 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Unless the Cubs spend well above the luxury tax or their
prospects significantly outperform their rankings getting above
a .500 team is going to be hard.
>
> I take a lot of heat for not wanting to sign Swanson and this
is why.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Signing Swanson is not the problem. He’s a very good player and
one of the reasons we didn’t suck.
The issue for me is giving up prospects of any value (or Morel
and Assad/Wesneski, though I’d bite the bullet) for a one-year
rental. The cost issue is why to me it’s a non-starter to have
both Stroman and Hendricks on the roster at their projected
salaries. We have too many areas we need to improve to pay mid
and bottom rotation starters $40 million.
#Post#: 481698--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 29, 2023, 7:57 pm
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Signing Swanson is not the problem. He’s a very good player
and one of the reasons we didn’t suck.
>
> …..The cost issue is why to me it’s a non-starter to have both
Stroman and Hendricks on the roster at their projected salaries.
We have too many areas we need to improve to pay mid and bottom
rotation starters $40 million.
>
--- End Quote ---
Neither Hendricks nor Stroman is anywhere near a bottom rotation
starter.
Hendricks had an adjusted ERA+ of 120 this season—right in line
with his career ERA+ of 121. That was actually better than Zach
Wheeler (119), among others, and would have been #10 in NL if
qualified for a leader board.
Deeg has been wrong about Hendricks for 10 years running (and
counting), so nothing new here.
Stroman had a 113 ERA+ and that was brought down by his
later-season injuries—was much better than that earlier. Stroman
was 119 ERA+ in 2022 and 133 in 2021. A really good SP.
#Post#: 481710--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 29, 2023, 9:08 pm
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Hendricks was legit bad in ‘21 and ‘22. Injured, but bad. He
was better last year, but the numbers say he was lucky. Lowest
K rate since his rookie year. No doubt helped by having Swanson
and Hoerner behind him, like Assad was. But spending 40 million
on him and Stroman when you have an owner trying be NBA
Reinsdorf is the definition of foolishness.
#Post#: 481722--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 30, 2023, 2:39 am
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Hendricks FIP (3.81) in 2023 was almost identical to his ERA
(3.74). Nothing out of the ordinary at all about the impact of
team defense for him.
Hendricks has had a career of excellence and was again in 2023.
But, for Deeg, a pitcher with a career adjusted ERA+ better than
Warren Spahn, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Hudson, among other notablew,
and a better ERA+ in 2023 than Zach Wheeler is a bottom rotation
starter.
Some things for some people never change.
#Post#: 481723--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 30, 2023, 2:57 am
---------------------------------------------------------
As to Stroman, a one-year commitment at $21 is a good deal for
Cubs, if that happens.
Let’s not forget that, before he got hurt, Stroman had a 2.28
ERA during his first 16 starts, which was third lowest ERA in
NL. He was a legit contender for Cy Young at that time. And that
showing was well in line with his 119 ERA+ in 2022 and 133 in
2021.
Stroman, to his credit, applied for admission to the Deeg Fave
Club but never heard back. Sorry fella, rumor has it: REJECTED!
#Post#: 481731--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: davep
Date: October 30, 2023, 8:45 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Hendricks was legit bad in ‘21 and ‘22. Injured, but bad. He
was better last year, but the numbers say he was lucky. Lowest
K rate since his rookie year. No doubt helped by having Swanson
and Hoerner behind him, like Assad was. But spending 40 million
on him and Stroman when you have an owner trying be NBA
Reinsdorf is the definition of foolishness.
>
--- End Quote ---
Not much point in mentioning Stroman, since whether or not he is
on the Cubs payroll next year depends only upon Stroman. The
Cubs have no say in the matter.
#Post#: 481732--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 30, 2023, 9:06 am
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Meanwhile, Sharma has a column in which he asked several
(anonymous) scouts questions about Bellinger and the Cubs. They
also discussed Soto and Alonso as well. I thought the views of
the scouts were pretty interesting, with a great deal of
agreement between the scouts.
HTML https://theathletic.com/5010527/2023/10/30/cody-bellinger-mlb-scouts-free-agency/?campaign=5888993&source=dailyemail
#Post#: 481734--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 30, 2023, 10:28 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> Signing Swanson is not the problem. He’s a very good player
and one of the reasons we didn’t suck.
>
> The issue for me is giving up prospects of any value (or Morel
and Assad/Wesneski, though I’d bite the bullet) for a one-year
rental. The cost issue is why to me it’s a non-starter to have
both Stroman and Hendricks on the roster at their projected
salaries. We have too many areas we need to improve to pay mid
and bottom rotation starters $40 million.
>
--- End Quote ---
The problem with Swanson is he's a defensive SS with AAV $25.285
million. Happ, Suzuki, Stroman, Hendricks are all fine players.
They have an AAV of with $102 million, for no star players.
That much money for none stars makes builiding a roster with
stars players harder, unless you are going to commit to being
well over the luxury tax.
There isn't a magic bullet that fixes this roster. Rickett's
comitting to spend clost to $40 million more than the luxury tax
is the only hope this team has for the foreseeable future.
Swanson wasn't the reason the Cubs where an 83 win team. That
was Bellinger. Without Belllinger, this team would have been
below .500.
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