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#Post#: 481573--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 24, 2023, 9:22 pm
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rWAR gives too much credit to defense.
The Cubs had an ok offense. The lack power and that limits
there ability to be great. They were 14th in the majors in ISO.
Being a contact heavy team makes it hard to score runs against
better pitching.
The Cubs ranked well in runs scored and runs prevented and they
where in a bad division that is going to juice there numbers
some. Being a contact, low power team on offense and a pitch
to contact, low strike out pitching staff isn’t how you build a
World Series team. It gets you .500 in a bad division to sell
tickets and make your owner some money. How Hoyer fixes this is
a really interesting question and I don’t know that he can..
Brealow was apparently offered the Red Sox GM job.
#Post#: 481577--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 11:00 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> rWAR gives too much credit to defense……
>
--- End Quote ---
Actually, Swanson does better under fWAR than he does under
bWAR.
WAR likes Swanson a whole lot, period, using whatever version
you prefer.
As to Hoerner combined with Swanson, a very negligible
difference between bWAR (9.8) and fWAR (9.6).
#Post#: 481578--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 11:15 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
>
> ..The Cubs had an ok offense. The lack power and that limits
there ability to be great. They were 14th in the majors in ISO.
Being a contact heavy team makes it hard to score runs against
better pitching….
>
--- End Quote ---
Cubs had a higher ISO than DBacks.
Cubs hit more homers than DBacks.
Cubs had a higher slugging % than DBacks.
We should all learn something from what just happened in NL.
#Post#: 481579--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 11:29 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
>
> ….The Cubs ranked well in runs scored and runs prevented and
they where in a bad division that is going to juice there
numbers some. Being a contact, low power team on offense and a
pitch to contact,low strike out pitching staff isn’t how you
build a World Series team. It gets you .500 in a bad division
to sell tickets and make your owner some money. How Hoyer fixes
this is a really interesting question and I don’t know that he
can..
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Cubs pitchers had more Ks this season than DBacks.
You get to WS by having good pitchers who are healthy at the
right time and rise to the occasion.
The notion that a particular type of club is doomed to .500 in
the years ahead is belied by all these clubs excelling in 2023
who lost 100+ games just two seasons ago.
Some folks think they can see the baseball future. They can’t.
Delusional if think so, especially in light of a 84-win team in
World Series.
Where are the Braves and Dodgers? If can’t be in their class,
not a WS team I suppose.
Hey, it’s Baseball. Be good at the right time. Mix in some good
fortune and good luck and a good clubhouse and play the game.
It’s unpredictable. If don’t appreciate that, you still have
stuff to learn about baseball.
#Post#: 481585--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 25, 2023, 10:56 am
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> Winning a bunch of blowout games historically is a common
feature of otherwise excellent teams. It’s a very good feature
to have, and is not typically an indication of something going
array. ...
--- End Quote ---
For sure, and PR and I both know that. It is possible, though,
given the randomness of baseball, that the Cubs might have a
randomly inordinate number of huge-scoring blowout games? Or
maybe every team with a good offense has a bunch like that, and
the Cubs were very normal?
OK, I just did a quick check on the Cubs and the 6 NL playoff
teams, for games with ≥10 runs, and games with 14-20 runs
*For ≥14-run games, only Braves and Phillies had more than
2 games with 14-20 runs (5 and 4). The Cubs had 6!!! Four of
the playoff teams, including the mighty Dodgers, only reached 14
runs twice.
*For ≥10-run games, only the Braves and Dodgers had more
than 11 ten-run games (20 and 19). Cubs had 24!!!
Cubs 24/6
Braves 20/5
Dodgers 19/2
Phillies 11/4.
Brewers 10/2
D-Backs 10/2
Marlins 11/2
#Post#: 481586--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 25, 2023, 11:18 am
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I also checked games with ≤3 runs scored, and number of
wins within those games.
Cubs 64/13
Braves 37/9
Dodgers 50/15
Phillies 61/17
Brewers 69/14
D-Backs 61/15
Marlins 73/18
Not sure I see anything very unexpected there.
*Braves and Dodgers obviously had the fewest ≤3-run games
(37, 50), but the other playoff teams all had >60, as did the
Cubs.
*Cubs and the Brewers had the worst winning percentage in those
≤3-run games, at ~20%. The other teams all won ~25-30% of
their ≤3-run games.
#Post#: 481587--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 25, 2023, 11:22 am
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Thanks for info on team defense rankings, reb. Helpful. Very
good top ten, not quite top five or extraordinary #1.
#Post#: 481590--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 25, 2023, 12:48 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> ...Marlins went 33-14 in one-run games. Won 84 games even
though outscored by 57 runs.
>
> I would much rather replay the season, hypothetically if had
to, with the club winning a bunch of blowout games than trying
to repeat a 33-14 one-run record. ....
>
> We all want rational and definite explanations for events. ...
--- End Quote ---
This may be irrational and naive. But a hypothetical theory is
that good/deep bullpen is variably helpful for winning close
games. That theory is hardly novel; has Saber analysis
long-past disproved that?
Craig Counsell has had a lot of terrific bullpens, and Brewers
have sometimes seemed to win a lot of close games and outperform
Pythag? I wonder if he won't seem quite as smart if he someday
doesn't have premier bullpens?
#Post#: 481591--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 25, 2023, 12:48 pm
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Not sure how easy it is to assess the link between relief depth
and W/L in close games.
1. Most managers have their use-when-winning and
use-when-losing guys.
(With a deep pen that can be pretty flexible, of course: if a
use-when-winning guy has pitched a lot and needs a rest, a
manager with a deep pen can easily draw from his use-when-losing
guys as needed to keep his use-when-winning guys fresh.)
2. If you lack bullpen depth, but your use-when-winning guys
are fine, maybe your close-game W/L can still be fine even if
use-when-losing guys are bad? Losing after 6, use-when-losing
guys make a small deficit grow, such that the loss doesn't list
as a "close game"? So maybe close-games W/L is relatively
un-compromised by a shallow bullpen, perhaps even enhanced?
3. And maybe close-games W/L isn't helped much by a deep
bullpen? If you'e only down by 1 or 2 runs after 6, if your
use-when-losing guys are still pretty good, maybe they only
allow 0-1 more run over the last three innings, and keep it
close. But assuming the opponent's use-when-winning guys shut
your offense down, you still end up losing the game. But now it
lists as a close-game loss, whereas had use-when-losing guys
pitched badly, it might have listed as a non-close loss?
#Post#: 481593--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 25, 2023, 1:22 pm
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Marlins were #21 in bullpen ERA at 4.37. Cubs bullpen was 3.85.
Marlins still had extraordinary record in one-run games. Go
figure.
Cubs bullpen was bad first couple months of season. Then, in
June, it turned around. Cubs had #2 bullpen ERA in majors in
June. Top form.
When Alzolay, Marryweather, Leiter, Fulmer were all in good form
together—and that lasted for about 75 games—Cubs had a playoff
caliber bullpen. Probably needed to supplement at some point and
didn’t really happen.
Hurt quite a bit that nobody jumped up from Iowa to make a real
impact. Cam Sanders had the stuff but not the command. Duffy
never got a chance—presumably never looked all that good. Luke
Little did okay but never really used for important role. Cuas
was okay. By end of season, injuries decimated bullpen and
wasn’t playoff caliber bullpen anymore.
DBacks had totally different timing of their bullpen peak and
they rebuilt their bullpen in important ways late and here they
are.
Huge part of DBacks success, of course, was getting terrific
performances by two rookie position players. Go figure again.
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