DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Bleacher Bums Forum
HTML https://bbf.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Archives
*****************************************************
#Post#: 481559--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: davep
Date: October 24, 2023, 4:16 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Comparing this year's Cub's team to previous year's Cub's teams
is not entirely useful, since last year was the only year with a
Cubs DH.
However, comparing this year's Cub's team to the rest of the
teams in the league is very useful. The fact is that the Cubs
scored more runs than all but two other league teams. Every
team can profit a better offense, but offense was not their
major problem.
When you take into account that the Cubs had a very good
defense, the major problem seems to have been pitching, and
primarily relief pitching. It would be interesting to see how
they performed after taking a lead into the seventh inning,
compared to the rest of the league.
#Post#: 481562--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 24, 2023, 5:38 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Cubs were 2nd in scoring in NL in both 2016 and 2017; 4th in
2018; and 5th in 2019. To finish 3rd this year without getting
into the 6-team playoffs is kinda discouraging. 7th best in
runs allowed.
#Post#: 481563--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 5:41 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> …….the major problem seems to have been pitching, and
primarily relief pitching. It would be interesting to see how
they performed after taking a lead into the seventh inning,
compared to the rest of the league.
>
--- End Quote ---
Cubs were #6 in bullpen ERA (3.85) in NL, narrowly behind #4
team (3.80). Cubs were about .35 better than DBacks bullpen but
the latter peaked at the right time and Cubs faltered at the
wrong time.
Timing and context are a big deal. A long season is fluid and
not static. DBacks made a critical deadline trade, got lucky
with a late waiver claim, got a boost from a Sept call-up, and
got a big turnaround from a poorly performing pre-all star break
reliever. Cubs didn’t. So, it’s complicated.
#Post#: 481564--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Playtwo
Date: October 24, 2023, 5:46 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
The Cubs also seemed to score a lot of "meaningless" runs.
These inflated their run differential but didn't impact winning
as much as more timely scoring would have. So I would argue
that there is plenty of room for their offense to improve. The
pitching overall was pretty average so that also needs to
improve. I can't wait to see how Hoyer maneuvers to improve the
2024 club.
#Post#: 481565--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 24, 2023, 6:24 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Question: Where do we get best stats for team defense? Cubs
were built to be defensively excellent. How good were they,
actually?
Per ESPN stats, the Cubs allowed 72 unearned runs.
*2nd worst in league, only Giants worse with 78.
*8 teams in the NL allowed 52 or fewer. Median was 52 unearned
runs, so we're 20 worse than median, 38% higher than the median.
Obviously there is lots more to defense than errors and unearned
runs. And errors are assigned by human beings. But 20 unearned
runs about median, that's a bunch of runs. Maybe we saved 80
other runs, beats me.
Just curious whether our team defense really was close to as
good as the reputation thinks, or the intentions for the season
anticipated.
#Post#: 481566--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: craig
Date: October 24, 2023, 6:37 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Playtwo link ---
>
> The Cubs also seemed to score a lot of "meaningless" runs.
These inflated their run differential but didn't impact winning
as much as more timely scoring would have. So I would argue
that there is plenty of room for their offense to improve. The
pitching overall was pretty average so that also needs to
improve. I can't wait to see how Hoyer maneuvers to improve the
2024 club.
>
--- End Quote ---
I assume every team has some big-scoring games that factor into
their totals and raise the runs-per-game average. So maybe we
were no different? But yeah, it seemed to me that Cubs this
year had an uncommon number of big blowout wins with 10+ runs
that padded the run differential. Would be curious to see data
on whether our number of extreme-scoring games was inordinately
high?
#Post#: 481568--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 7:47 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Winning a bunch of blowout games historically is a common
feature of otherwise excellent teams. It’s a very good feature
to have, and is not typically an indication of something going
array.
Marlins went 33-14 in one-run games. Won 84 games even though
outscored by 57 runs.
I would much rather replay the season, hypothetically if had to,
with the club winning a bunch of blowout games than trying to
repeat a 33-14 one-run record. There’s just a lot of randomness
and luck in baseball. Weird stuff happens with no real
explanation, such as Astros being way better on road than at
home all season and in post-season.
We all want rational and definite explanations for events. Much
is explainable but sometimes have to live with the anomalous and
unexplainable. That’s baseball!
#Post#: 481569--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 8:12 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Question: Where do we get best stats for team defense? Cubs
were built to be defensively excellent. How good were they,
actually? …..
>
--- End Quote ---
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) has Cubs #6 in majors in 2023.
Plus value was virtually entirely the excellence of Swanson and
Hoerner up-the-middle.
If PCA ends up with most of the CF games in 2024, Cubs might
have historically outstanding up-the-middle defense.
HTML https://fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved
#Post#: 481570--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 8:20 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Outs Above Average (OAA) has Cubs at #7 in 2023.
HTML https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielding_Team&startYear=2023&endYear=2023&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=hide
#Post#: 481571--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 24, 2023, 8:41 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Swanson and Hoerner had combined 9.8 bWAR in 2023 even with
modest 104 and 102 wRC+ respectively.
Just shows how much overall value they have because of superb
defense .
PCA might do that too if he can contribute at 100 or so wRC+.
That might be a tall order for PCA but can always hope.
All this only accentuates that Cubs need offensive bangers at
other positions. As Sharma article points out, better not to
devote 500 dead PAs to guys you end up releasing.
*****************************************************
Page 17 of 300
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page