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#Post#: 481431--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: CurtOne Date: October 19, 2023, 6:01 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=628.msg481397#msg481397
date=1697679250]
No, not just successful teams. EVERYBODY.
We have an analytically-based industry and everybody does this
thing the same way. What does that tell us?
In the pre-analytic days of yore, a lot of stupid stuff was done
industry-wide. That happened because decisions were not data
driven.
Sure, it’s possible that some club will figure out something on
some component of baseball that isn’t widely accepted today… and
others will follow. Analytics are not static. But, kinda doubt
will happen with bullpen usage. But if that happens, it will
because of new data or new rules that put beauty of the game
ahead of winning (such as restrictions on shifts). It won’t
happen just because some fans think multiple relievers in a game
is effectively a search for the “one that sucks that day.”
[/quote]Everyone? I don't think all the teams have the depth in
their bullpens to pull this off. And what about the teams that
were doing this to their doom? The Dodgers, the Rays, the Mets,
the Cubs?
Fullmer, btw, is out for 2024. How many more arms will be
ruined with this philosophy?
#Post#: 481436--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 19, 2023, 7:55 pm
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[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=628.msg481431#msg481431
date=1697756517]
Everyone? I don't think all the teams have the depth in their
bullpens to pull this off. And what about the teams that were
doing this to their doom? The Dodgers, the Rays, the Mets, the
Cubs?
Fullmer, btw, is out for 2024. How many more arms will be
ruined with this philosophy?
[/quote]
Too bad, hadn't heard that Fullmer was out for next year. Too
bad for him.
#Post#: 481437--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 19, 2023, 7:56 pm
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[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=628.msg481431#msg481431
date=1697756517]
Everyone? I don't think all the teams have the depth in their
bullpens to pull this off. And what about the teams that were
doing this to their doom? The Dodgers, the Rays, the Mets, the
Cubs?
Fullmer, btw, is out for 2024. How many more arms will be
ruined with this philosophy?
[/quote]
Yes, everyone uses relievers this way.
You mention Dodgers, for example. Dodgers had third best bullpen
ERA in majors and post-season bullpen ERA was excellent.
Fulmer first had serious injury history as a starting pitcher.
Pitchers get hurt. Who knows why these days.
If you know why they get hurt, you will make a fortune offering
your services to major league clubs. Send a resume.
#Post#: 481438--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 19, 2023, 8:28 pm
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Cub four main starters averaged 5.5 innings per start. Some of
the other guys covering the other 54 starts averaged less. So
on averge, 3.5 innings for bullpen to cover each game. More
than half of the innings are covered by relievers.
That's a lot of relief innings to cover. If you hypothetically
had the same 8 relievers all season, uninjured, they'd want to
average 70 innings each.
Steele was our only starter with >154 innings, and our big-four
averaged 150. So if an average stay-healthy reliever is
supposed to pitch ~70, each guy is handling almost half the
innings of a starter.
The importance of having a deep, effective bullpen shouldn't be
underestimated. We had too many ineffective relievers this year
who were not trustworthy. Given the unpredictability of
reliever effectiveness, it will be hard to ensure having a deep
and effective pen next summer. But that's a significant area of
potential improvement for the team, and significant improvement
there could make a huge difference. Both internally and
externally. It's not probable, but in a rebuild you'd like to
think that young guys like Palencia, Wesneski, and Little might
improve and become useful and desirable, or have a Ben Brown
become useful.
This point is not at all relevant to Curt's argument that
starters should and could pitch deeper; or that relievers should
be used in >1-inning outings; or that more multi-inning usage
would reduce injury.
#Post#: 481439--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: CurtOne Date: October 19, 2023, 9:57 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=628.msg481437#msg481437
date=1697763373]
Yes, everyone uses relievers this way.
You mention Dodgers, for example. Dodgers had third best bullpen
ERA in majors and post-season bullpen ERA was excellent.
Fulmer first had serious injury history as a starting pitcher.
Pitchers get hurt. Who knows why these days.
If you know why they get hurt, you will make a fortune offering
your services to major league clubs. Send a resume.
[/quote]Reb, I've looked you most of my life ever since my
mother told me not to jump off a cliff or a bridge just because
everyone was doing it. I often wondered who the first guy to do
such a thing. It was YOU!
I agree most teams are doing something on this order, but not
all. And they all are certainly doing it the extreme some
managers like Ross have done. When owners and managers start
realizing it's costing them too much in money, personnel, and
wins, it will be modified.
#Post#: 481440--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 19, 2023, 11:07 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=628.msg481403#msg481403
date=1697694183]
Craig- There was nothing unusual about the usage of Alzolay,
Leiter, Fulmer, (and Merryweather) compared to the usage of
other relievers on other clubs around MLB. I looked at that in,
I think, late July comparing innings and appearances to other
relievers. Did a post on that.
The issue with the Cubs guys above was the absence of track
record—like any other position when you don’t know if the sample
size is too small to be predictive. Effective relievers all
around baseball had very similar appearances and
innings....[/quote]
I remember that, reb, and I know it's true.... Overall, for the
season...
I'm not sure the composite appearance/innings quite represents
the summer usage, though? Nobody had concerns that Adbert or
Merryweather might be getting overworked in the spring, when the
Cubs lost a lot.
It wasn't until the summer that they started winning... a lot.
Adbert didn't take ove as close till June, and wasn't used
heavily before summer. None of the guys deeg was worried about
were arguably overworked until the wins started rolling in. So,
I'm curious whether the level of usage those guys had during the
season's prime is common to every team, or whether maybe they
really were used more relentlessly?
Adbert pitched 27 times within two months. Project that over 6
months, that would be 81 games. Maybe every team has some guys
pitching that often for a while, just not every month, I dont
know. But mighty Atlanta only had AJ Minter in >61 games, at
71. Baltimore only one >65, Cano at 72. Tampa only one guy
over 57 (Poche, 66). Dodgers maxed at 68. Brewers 73. Twins
71.
So, nobody is having guys AVERAGE > 12 appearances per month, or
>3 per week. Adbert going 27 times in two months is exceeding
anybody's average. And he'd not proven he was resilient for
that level in past; plus he's had his share of injuries.
I'm not arguing that the usage was eggregious or responsible for
the injuries. I am arguing that we want a deeper pen so that
guys wouldn't need to be going 27 times in two months.
#Post#: 481441--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 20, 2023, 12:48 am
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Craig- Alzolay pitched in 58 games. If he had stayed healthy,
figure another 8 or so games in September. That’s 66.
66 relief appearances would have tied him for #42 in majors in
relief appearances. Cuas had 70 appearances, for example.
Alzolay had 14 appearances in August. Maybe Ross could have
eased off on one or two of those. But, don’t see a big deal
there, overall. Effective relievers see a lot of action.
But, even as of September 1, Alzolay, at 55 appearances, was
tied for #51-56 in majors in most relief appearances as of that
date.
Leiter had 60 appearances as of that date, tops for Cubs
bullpen.. That put him at tied for #10-18 in most relief
appearances in majors but #33 in most relief innings.
#Post#: 481447--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 20, 2023, 10:21 am
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Reb, You are restating your previous fact/argument: that
games/season over the composite season, no Cubs were heavily
used. Which I have already agreed to. Adbert wasn't used
heavily in September, nor April or May, so his composite was
very modest. So just looking at the 6-month full season, no
issue.
But looking at smaller-window, local time period is where the
question lies.
*Aug 3-September 1, a 30-day period, Adbert had 15 games.
*Merryweather had 14 (adding in Aug 2).
Do other relievers routinely stack 14 or 15 games per month?
The answer is no.
1. Max for other teams is 60's or barely 70 game per season,
which over a 6-month season would average
≤12-games-per-month. No teams have guys AVERAGE the load
that Adbert and Merryweather threw 8/2-9/1. *IF* you prorated
their 8/2-9/1 usage over full season, you'd be getting 84 and 90
games; nobody in the modern era gets even close to that. (Even
Mike Marshall only cleared 80 games 3 times, once at age 36!
The great ex-Cub Willie Hernandez only touched 80 games once, in
his Cy Young season.).
2. So, nobody these days *averages* what Alzolay and
Merryweather carried 8/2-9/1. They did 15 and 14; nobody
averages more than 12 games-per-month.
Like I said, I'm not sure it had any cause-effect, or that it
was egregious, given that neither had been heavily used during
the spring.
But yeah, nobody uses their guys with average >12 games/month,
or >3 games/week, on average. Adbert and Julian were used very
heavily in August.
I'm not saying it was wrong, or egregious, or caused them any
problems, or will impact their future careers or contributions
to Cub success. Just that it was very heavy usage for that
wonderful winning-winning-winning month.
#Post#: 481454--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 20, 2023, 11:56 am
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Even though other teams max their guys at ≤72 appearances
= ≤12-per-month, that doesn't mean every month is the
same. Minter (71) and Poche (66) might have *averaged*
≤12/month, but might they have had individual months with
13-17 games?
So, my next question is how often other teams have guys go 14 or
15 games in a month, or more, like Cubs did with Julian and
Adbert.
Summary:
1. in looking at 8 teams, I didn't find anybody with ≥16
games in a month.
2. I found two guys who got 15 games in a 31-day month, Clay
Holmes and Mayza. But Adbert's 15-in-30-days was unsurpassed in
the teams I checked.
3. In looking at 8 teams, I found 9 guys who pitched 14 games
in a month. A couple of guys did it twice.
4. Dodgers only let one guy hit 13, and that only once.
(Gatorol). Tampa only one 14 (Adam) and only one 13 (Poche).
5. Baltimore rode their guys hard. Four guys had months with
13 or more, Perez and Cano twice. Cano actually hit 14 not once
but twice.
Thoughts:
1. 14 games in a month once in a while is allowed by most
non-Dodgers teams.
2. 15 is very rare, but at least two other pitchers besides
Adbert did it this year, and if we looked at the other 22 teams,
there might be a handful more.
3. So I don't feel like Ross's usage of Adbert + Julian was
egregious or way beyond common practice. Pushing the edge, yes.
But doesn't seem crazy ridiculous, or a fireable offense, or
anything like that.
4. I would personally suggest for future that Ross avoid having
guys hit 14 games within a 30-day period
5. I would suggest that Hoyer assemble a deep and talented
bullpen such that sharing some of the load will be less scary?
Even if they have an 18-win month, I'd like to have a great
month like that without using any relievers in more than 13 of
those games.
6. *IF* you're going to be going with 14 or 15 games in a
month, I'd recommend doing that with somebody with history as a
durable rubber-arm. Rather than with guys like Adbert and
Merryweather who haven't pitched heavily like that in past, and
who have injury histories.
#Post#: 481458--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 20, 2023, 1:14 pm
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Craig- True, Alzolay had the most appearances in the 8/3 to 9/1
period at 15 appearances. Thirty relievers had 13 or 14
appearances. Alzolay was 13th in relief innings, however, in
that period.
Cuas had 15 appearances from 9/1 to 10/3 (end of season). Bryan
Shaw had 18 appearances.
Here’s 7/1 to 8/3 (previous 30-day period taking into account
all-star break). Six relievers had 15 appearances and 18 had 14
appearances. Pretty routine.
HTML https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&startdate=2023-07-01&enddate=2023-08-03&team=0&stats=rel&sortcol=5&sortdir=default&pagenum=1&pageitems=50
From June 1 to August 3, Elvis Peguero of Brewers had 30
appearances. He did 15 appearances a month for two months in a
row!
Just don’t see a big deal as to Alzolay compared to other
effective relievers.
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