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#Post#: 481402--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 18, 2023, 10:55 pm
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Seems like only a few years ago there was talk of multi-inning
relievers. Josh Hader in 2018 and 2019 was 81/55 and 76/61
IP/G. Counsell some dumb pre-analytic fossil? I vaguely recall
Ross talking about such a thing, including during and after
Covid season. But Cubs never really went that way, much.
Keegan got used multi-inning a fair bit, and this year Assad did
before he pitched his way into the rotation.
reb, I have no objection to the 1-inning-usage plan. I think it
works well, situationally. When you've got a sufficiently deep
bullpen. The Cubs didn't this year, that's why I'm really
interested in how they build the pen moving forward. Getting a
good and deeper pen could be one key pathway to improving the
team next season.
You made one comment with which I have some issue: "The primary
issue isn’t whether multi innings in one game or solo innings
several times is healthier. The primary issue is what’s more
conducive to winning." Seems to me that having Adbert, Leiter,
and Fulmer all become too unhealthy to to pitch efffectively,
that ended up being non-conducive to winning? Seems to me that
keeping guys healthy enough to be effective is VERY much
relevant to winning. The key Cub relievers didn't hold up this
season, for whatever reason.
My view is that you want to have a crowd of relievers good
enough to split up the innings without either blowing many wins
or burning out the relievers. During the summe stretch where
the Cubs were good, Ross largely relied on
Fulmer-Leiter-Merryweather-Adbert in game when we were winning.
One can blame Ross for not having the courage to use other guys;
or blame Bellinger for hitting too much during that period and
causing too many leads and too much use of the use-when-winning
relievers; or blame Adbert/Leiter/Fulmer for being unable to
handle the load that many good relieves on other teams to
endure; or blame Palencia and Wesneski and Kay for not being
good enough to earn more trust. Beats me.
I just think we really want to get better and deeper in the
bullpen, and if we do it could be good for both winning and
health. Sure am hoping the guaranteed guys Hoyer signs are more
productive than Fulmer and Boxberger were. And sure am hoping
that some of the options guys who won't have guaranteed
contracts or roster spots will step up and be good whenever they
do get chances.
#Post#: 481403--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 19, 2023, 12:43 am
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Craig- There was nothing unusual about the usage of Alzolay,
Leiter, Fulmer, (and Merryweather) compared to the usage of
other relievers on other clubs around MLB. I looked at that in,
I think, late July comparing innings and appearances to other
relievers. Did a post on that.
The issue with the Cubs guys above was the absence of track
record—like any other position when you don’t know if the sample
size is too small to be predictive. Effective relievers all
around baseball had very similar appearances and innings.
Without a track record, just don’t know if the player is going
to hold up. Cubs relievers didn’t hold up. Yes, more of a
injury/health matter with an untested reliever than an untested
2B but don’t think it was overwork in the general sense for a
good reliever. If pitching effectively, going to be worked
aggressively all around MLB.
Leiter is a particularly interesting case. Never read or heard
an explanation from anybody as to why the splitter disappeared.
Not just ineffective but kind of abandoned the pitch. Did the
grip cause him pain? Something else? Think probably a very
specific matter peculiar to Leiter rather than “overwork” of
innings or appearances.
Some of this bullpen stuff is just luck. DBacks called up a
lefty rookie in Sept who pitched great. Picked up a guy on a
waiver claim who was terrific last month of season. Ginkel was
awful first-half and very good second-half. Maybe Cubs could
have acquired Sewald at trade deadline (instead of DBacks
getting him) if willing to include Canario in a deal instead of
sending Velazquez-for-Cuas. Maybe that’s fortunate in long-run
or maybe cost Cubs a post-season run. Who knows. In any case,
Boom, DBacks have a bullpen and Cubs don’t in Sept.
#Post#: 481405--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 19, 2023, 1:07 am
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I would not use Rob Deer as a comp for Canario but the name came
up and worth emphasizing how hard it is to have a 14 WAR career,
as Deer did.
Also would not describe Canario a “five-tool guy.” That kind of
description typically is reserved for elite prospects, not a
prospect ranked #21, 14, 14 in Cubs system by Fangraphs, BA,
Pipeline.
For one thing, very exuberant to say that Canario had a
particularly good hit tool—big part of being a “five-tool guy.”
He’s a .264 lifetime hitter with high Ks and seems unlikely to
ever hit for average. His game is power, which is a big deal.
That’s the allure. We’ll see how it manifests.
#Post#: 481406--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 19, 2023, 1:25 am
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[quote author=davep link=topic=628.msg481377#msg481377
date=1697642664]
……In my opinion, the Cubs made a big mistake when they left a
slumping Tauchman in center during the last portion of the
stretch run, rather than putting Canario out in center for the
last several weeks. Canario is the kind of player that can have
a hot streak that will carry a team, even though his long term
potential may be limited. His kind of power can be intimidating
when one swing of the bat can change the course of the entire
season……
[/quote]
Tauchman had a .377 OBP over the final four weeks of the season
and a .395 OBP over the final two weeks. He did what he was
asked to do: get on base. Canario would have supplied more power
but it would have been an odd decision at the time to opt for an
untested rookie over a guy who was consistently getting on base.
Tauchman had 2.3 bWAR for the season in 108 games. So, he was
basically a 3 plus WAR guy over a full season, an above average
regular.
Not saying going to do that again in 2024. Maybe a good 4th
OFer, I don’t know. Maybe a legit regular or platoon guy. But,
in any case, Tauchman was a solid guy in 2023 and got on base
during crunch time, albeit without power.
#Post#: 481413--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 19, 2023, 7:49 am
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=628.msg481400#msg481400
date=1697685740]
..Canario is a completely different sort of player. Basically,
a five-tool guy - with the ceiling and floor being dependent on
how well the hit tool holds up. He has plus speed and a
plus-plus arm, can handle all three OF positions and according
to the scouts is above average at either corner. He can steal
bases and generally help you with his speed on the
basepaths....[/quote]
HR's are hits and are an efficient way to score. But 5-tool is
kinda hyperbole... for a guy who doesn't seem to have the "hit"
tool. Obviously lots of 4-tool guys who never make it without
hitting. If he hits enough to mash, his corner defense should
be nice and he runs well. I don't get the sense that either
defense or speed are exceptional. Never attempted more than 31
steals in any season, and his career SB/CS success rate is
below-average. My sense is that his defensive jumps/instincts
may be unexceptional, which may explain why he's rarely been
projected as a big-league CFer.
#Post#: 481415--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 19, 2023, 8:24 am
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He was 23/26 in steals last season and basically ordered not to
try this season. He's plenty fast and the defense at the
corners is above average. Yeah, he'll go as far as the hit tool
takes him, but he has diverse enough skills to succeed as a
player without following the Rob Deer model.
#Post#: 481418--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 19, 2023, 10:13 am
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I wonder what the Cubs internally think of Canario's CF defense?
Obvoiusly they don't project him as an asset there for years.
But, we're kind of in a spot with the PCA situation, hoping he's
ready soon but knowing he's not ready yet, and not being sure
how long it might take to be ready.
So, what do we do with CF?
1. Go and pursue a Damon Buford and give him a guaranteed
contract, even if you hope he's replaced by July?
2. Go with Tauchman, and take your chances? He had a career
year at age 32 with .252 average, .377 slugging, and 100 OPS+,
and the bWAR that reb notes. Bring him back and assume more of
the same? If so, will you get it? Getting to 83 wins involved
a lot of lucky magic for the Cubs, but I admit some fear that
Tauchman might revert to the guy who was OPS+ of 56 and 84 his
previous two big-league seasons.
3. Go with Canario-Tauchman, and take your chances? Hope that
Canario breaks out and goes Morel, and that his defense is
anti-awful enough to be playable for a few months, even if PCA
is the long-term defender?
4. RESIGN BELLINGER!!! This seems the ideal solution. He can
help to improvise. If Canario breaks out, Bellinger can play
1st. If Tauchman is doing OK, Bellinger can play 1st. If both
guys are terrible, Bellinger can play center and you can
improvise at 1B.
Seems like bringing Bellinger back would be so helpful for
staffing CF, and adapting to the uncertainty of when PCA is
ready, if ever.
#Post#: 481419--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 19, 2023, 11:04 am
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Part of me worries that the Cubs might relapse a fair bit
offensively.
1. Bellinger had a big year; either he won't be back, or if he
is he probably won't match that season?
2. Tauchman had a probably fluky-decent year. Probably will
relapse?
3. Morel was out of his mind for a while early, he might never
have a stretch like that again.
4. Gomes was shockingly solid and got so many clutch hits; he
could well regress.
5. Swanson was pretty good for a while, but was awful late:
might he be less of the former and more of the latter going
forward?
6. Wisdom was out of his mind for a while early; he'll likely
never have a stretch like that again, either.
7. Candelario had a great first week, but was mostly an easy
out during his Cubs time. If we bring him back, might he be the
.243/.739 guy he's been over his career? Or maybe even worse,
more like the .217/.633 guy he was in 2022?
Even as is, the offense kinda overachieved. 6th in runs, while
being 11th in slugging and average, and 15th in HR. Very easy
to imagine not getting as many runs even if they did reproduce
those 11th/11th/15th underlying numbers. And assuming some
reversion to the mean for individuals who had surprising years,
and/or losing Bellinger, lots of ways to imagine we won't be
top-6 in runs again.
Or maybe it will sustain or improve. No Mancini or Hosmer, and
you replace them with Alonso, who posts a career-average .870
OPS or better, while Bellinger also returns and doesn't regress
at all? Maybe 3B, DH, and 1B are all better? Maybe Suzuki
thinks it's August all season? Maybe Canario explodes, PCA
improves as a hitter and is perfectly respectable if/when he
gets a chance, and maybe as ben envisions, maybe Morel takes
another step and is as good or even better offensively? Heh
heh, in the mostly remotely improbable world, imagine *IF* Morel
hypothetically played regular 3B, Bellinger CF, Alonso 1B, and
Canario DH, this would NOT be a 15th-in-HR's offense! :):). (Or
shift Canario to CF, Bellinger to 1st, and Alonso to DH....).
Heh heh,that kind of roster might be up near or even beyond the
Phillies and Dodgers in HR's, maybe only 2nd to Atlanta. A team
with Morel at 3B and either Alonso at 1st or Canario in center
might be pretty bad defensively, of course....
#Post#: 481427--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 19, 2023, 4:52 pm
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Hoyer's doublespeak is vibing like he doesn't expect Bellinger
back.
#Post#: 481428--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: davep Date: October 19, 2023, 4:54 pm
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Not doublespeak. Realism.
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