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#Post#: 481388--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: davep Date: October 18, 2023, 6:17 pm
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Can you spell Hyperbole?
#Post#: 481390--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 18, 2023, 6:40 pm
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Well I know you can, making a comparison like that.
#Post#: 481391--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: CurtOne Date: October 18, 2023, 6:53 pm
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I feel all the love from craig and davep. I just hope somebody
does a more physiological study of whether 2 or 3 innings of
work 2 or 3 times a week is better or worse on the arm than 1
inning throwing as hard as one can 4 or 5 times a week. But I
also hope that Ross learns a fundamental lesson of riding the
hot horse. Period.
#Post#: 481392--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 18, 2023, 7:54 pm
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The primary issue isn’t whether multi innings in one game or
solo innings several times is healthier. The primary issue is
what’s more conducive to winning.
The answer to the latter is abundantly clear. Look at what teams
are doing all over baseball based on their own analytics. It’s
not arbitrary. It’s data-based because that’s what drives
decision-making in baseball these days: Data. Look around. It’s
not just Ross and the Cubs. It’s everywhere.
It’s a myth that clubs are foolishly “searching through your pen
to find the one that sucks that day"” NO— a shorter stint is
more likely to be more conducive to winning than leaving last
inning’s reliever out there for a bunch of innings. If the
latter worked better, teams would be doing it more. They don’t.
Clubs are working with better data than seat-of-the-pants old
school thinking.
Whether this is better for baseball and the fan experience is a
different question. I miss the days of the Starting Pitcher
owning the game and expected to pitch a CG. But those days are
gone, gone, gone.
#Post#: 481393--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: JeffH Date: October 18, 2023, 7:59 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=628.msg481392#msg481392
date=1697676887]It’s a myth that clubs are foolishly “searching
through your pen to find the one that sucks that day"” NO— a
shorter stint is more likely to be more conducive to winning
than leaving last inning’s reliever out there for a bunch of
innings. If the latter worked better, teams would be doing it
more. They don’t. Clubs are working with better data than
seat-of-the-pants old school thinking.[/quote]
Perhaps the multi-inning appearance is so rare these days that
the available data set is essentially meaningless for the
purposes of evaluation.
#Post#: 481394--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 18, 2023, 8:08 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=628.msg481377#msg481377
date=1697642664]
Canario is the kind of prospect that brings out extremely widly
divergent views about their potential. He is the ultimate "Rob
Deer" prospect. Will his 50 home runs per year create more
value than the 200 strikeouts destroy?……
[/quote]
Rob Deer had a nice career. 14.3 fWAR/13.9 bWAR and 110 career
wRC+
If Canario were to have the offensive career that Deer achieved,
guessing that Cubs would be pretty happy with that. Likelihood
that a non-Top 100 prospect ends up with 14 career WAR is low.
I think of Canario as similar to Nelson Velazquez, but with more
upside than Velazquez. Think that Cubs willing to trade
Velazquez for a middle reliever in part because they liked
Canario more. Interesting prospect and will be fun to see how he
pans out. Don’t think he will be traded unless part of a package
for a very significant player, such as Alonso.
#Post#: 481395--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: CurtOne Date: October 18, 2023, 8:17 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=628.msg481392#msg481392
date=1697676887]
The primary issue isn’t whether multi innings in one game or
solo innings several times is healthier. The primary issue is
what’s more conducive to winning.
The answer to the latter is abundantly clear. Look at what teams
are doing all over baseball based on their own analytics. It’s
not arbitrary. It’s data-based because that’s what drives
decision-making in baseball these days: Data. Look around. It’s
not just Ross and the Cubs. It’s everywhere.
It’s a myth that clubs are foolishly “searching through your pen
to find the one that sucks that day"” NO— a shorter stint is
more likely to be more conducive to winning than leaving last
inning’s reliever out there for a bunch of innings. If the
latter worked better, teams would be doing it more. They don’t.
Clubs are working with better data than seat-of-the-pants old
school thinking.
Whether this is better for baseball and the fan experience is a
different question. I miss the days of the Starting Pitcher
owning the game and expected to pitch a CG. But those days are
gone, gone, gone.
[/quote]I don't think your cause and effect thinking is adequate
proof. Because successful teams are doing it does not mean they
wouldn't be just as successful doing it a different way.
You're also discounting injuries that inflict more harm to a
club like the Cubs than a club like the Braves. I love Mark
Twain's quote, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." I
think we're seeing that in baseball these days.
#Post#: 481396--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 18, 2023, 8:21 pm
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[quote author=JeffH link=topic=628.msg481393#msg481393
date=1697677141]
Perhaps the multi-inning appearance is so rare these days that
the available data set is essentially meaningless for the
purposes of evaluation.
[/quote]
Don’t think so.
The one-inning stint in MLB was not as abrupt it may seem today.
There was a transition period when relievers worked more innings
than today.
Notion that something so massive—in how the game is played—is
actually based on insufficient data just seems untenable. It’s
not just a few clubs. It’s everybody. It works. If it didn’t,
we’d see more multi-inning stints again.
Again, doesn’t mean it improves baseball as a game. The shifts
were sound baseball strategy, but hurt the game. Debatable
whether bullpen usage these days is a good thing for the game.
If you like power pitching, guess that it’s better. Not so sure
otherwise, but little doubt that it’s conducive to winning.
#Post#: 481397--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 18, 2023, 8:34 pm
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[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=628.msg481395#msg481395
date=1697678245]
I don't think your cause and effect thinking is adequate proof.
Because successful teams are doing it does not mean they
wouldn't be just as successful doing it a different way.
You're also discounting injuries that inflict more harm to a
club like the Cubs than a club like the Braves. I love Mark
Twain's quote, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." I
think we're seeing that in baseball these days.
[/quote]
No, not just successful teams. EVERYBODY.
We have an analytically-based industry and everybody does this
thing the same way. What does that tell us?
In the pre-analytic days of yore, a lot of stupid stuff was done
industry-wide. That happened because decisions were not data
driven.
Sure, it’s possible that some club will figure out something on
some component of baseball that isn’t widely accepted today… and
others will follow. Analytics are not static. But, kinda doubt
will happen with bullpen usage. But if that happens, it will
because of new data or new rules that put beauty of the game
ahead of winning (such as restrictions on shifts). It won’t
happen just because some fans think multiple relievers in a game
is effectively a search for the “one that sucks that day.”
#Post#: 481400--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 18, 2023, 10:22 pm
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Deer did have a nice career, considering that whenever he played
defense he racked up negative dWAR. But he was basically the
ultimate “three true outcomes” player. He barely hit above
.200, he Kd a ton, and he walked and hit home runs a lot. He
was a liability anywhere with the glove and slow.
Canario is a completely different sort of player. Basically, a
five-tool guy - with the ceiling and floor being dependent on
how well the hit tool holds up. He has plus speed and a
plus-plus arm, can handle all three OF positions and according
to the scouts is above average at either corner. He can steal
bases and generally help you with his speed on the basepaths.
Does Canario strike out? Sure - but he’s at 29.7% in the
minors, where Deer was at 35.9% in a much less K-dominant era.
Not comparable. Typically Canario’s strikeout % has declined
pretty steeply after he adjusts to a new level. We know he has
power, speed, and a cannon arm. What will determine whether he
has a career is the bat on ball ability, and we won’t know that
until we see a lot more of him in MLB. He may well never have
as many career WAR as Deer did and generally be a bust. But he
has the upside to be much more.
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