DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Bleacher Bums Forum
HTML https://bbf.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Archives
*****************************************************
#Post#: 481245--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 12, 2023, 11:55 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=628.msg481019#msg481019
date=1696782217]
…One of the bigger issues I have is I don’t trust Hoyer/Ricketts
to do what it is going to take to compete with the Braves and
Dodgers. I’m starting to have trouble believing that they even
will do what it takes to overtake the Brewers. I get why fans
could be excited with this team, this year. I just think it is
going to be really hard for the Cubs to bust out of this tier.
Are you going to happy with this team being this for next 5
years? Maybe Hoyer and Tom will surprise me, but I haven’t seen
anything to make me think they will.
[/quote]
Well, we have seen this post-season ONCE AGAIN that
surprises—and just the right timing—leads to teams able to “bust
out of their tier” and win when it counts the most.
Notion that Cubs can’t do this in next FIVE YEARS [!]?
Really? …..when 84-win team that was outscored in 162-game
season sweeps the Dodgers? When club that finished 14 games
behind Braves once again beats them for second year in a row?
How many times does this have to happen to truly appreciate that
baseball is unpredictable? Not just pay lip service to the
notion but actually grasp it and morph it into our thinking?
Cubs had elements this season when Cubs had a similar quality
club as DBacks and Phillies are now. Unfortunately, these
elements happened at different points in season and did not
coalesce late when mattered most. Cubs
Bullpen had extended stretch when Alzolay, Merryweather, Leiter,
Fulmer were all really good, kind of like DBacks bullpen is now.
Starting pitching had a point when Steele and Stroman were legit
top tier CY candidates. Offense was particularly good in late
August when even 7-8-9 lineup spots had Candelario slugging
.490. Madrigal batting .280. Gomes slugging .430 or Tauchman
with .770 OPS. Then, after that, Suzuki started mashing. Defense
was almost always good, until last week of season.
Did not come together, obviously.
As we have just seen, even teams WAY, WAY below Top Tier Braves
and Dodgers sometimes coalesce late. Nobody knows in advance who
that might be. And, don’t know that Top Tier Dodgers might have
pitching problems going into post-season or that Braves might
have a team meeting and “decide” not to hit for a 4-game period.
Just make the post-season, get your ducks in a row at just the
right time, and have a bit of luck.
PRESTO! You are now a Top Tier club.
#Post#: 481248--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Reb Date: October 13, 2023, 1:28 am
---------------------------------------------------------
A note about Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks finished 2023 season with a career adjusted ERA+ of
121.
121 ERA+ is the same as Don Drysdale, David Cone, Jose Rijo.
Below Hendricks and sitting at 120 ERA+ are Carlos Zambrano and
Tim Hudson.
Descending to 119 ERA+ is Warren Spahn.
Then, at 118 ERA+ are Tom Glavine and Bert Blyleven.
117 ERA+ finds Gaylord Perry and Jon Lester.
#Post#: 481259--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: davep Date: October 13, 2023, 10:51 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=628.msg481241#msg481241
date=1697168094]
Reb, I think your read on Hoyer's Morel comments could be true.
Still, I wonder if the length of time he talked about it hints
it might also be otherwise? Hoyer could have avoided the
question, but instead he kinda belabored some of the defensive
qualities Morel does have, and the importance of trying to focus
on a position, and then he circled back to that single-position
point at the end. The very duration of his answer almost seemed
longer than it should have been if he's just trying to talk
around DH-only status. Heh heh, on the other hand, *IF* they
really did see 3B as good fit, why would that be so "hard", and
why would that require much conversation?
Two other long-shot improbable position possibilities for him:
1. Focus on CF this winter. *IF* PCA starts in Iowa, might
Morel compete with Tauchman for stop-gapping that position until
PCA gets recalled? If the hope is PCA is ready by July, you'd
not need to expect elite defense for some several-months
placeholders?
2. Focus on RF this winter? Even apart from the missed
flyball, Suzuki has been pretty slow and not very good in RF.
Could Morel just focus on RF, and perhaps at some point flip
RF/DH roles with Suzuki?
[/quote]
I agree that the Cubs seem to have decided that Morel is best
served by playing ONE position on a regular basis. But I doubt
that they would be foolish enough to move him to CF, a position
that is likely to be filled by PCA before the end of the season.
Given that LF and RF are filled by no-trade players, and that,
barring injuries, SS and 2B are positions where they would not
want to have a defensive downgrade, that really leaves only 3B
nd 1B as realistic possibilities. I could live with either one,
but given that we have at least one prospect with high potential
for 1B (even if with low probability), and none at 3B, I hope
that that 3B is where they finally settle him. As was pointed
out above, the general belief in last off season was that
Madrigal could not possibly handle third base, and shouldn't
even be considered for it, for defensive reasons. Didn't turn
out that way.
#Post#: 481278--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 13, 2023, 9:38 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/chicago-cubs/welcome-to-the-era-of-the-six-man-starting-rotation-r388/
Per this article, the Cubs gave their starters less rest than
any team but the Giants.
"In 2023, the median teams (the Marlins and Rangers) used
starters on what would traditionally be counted as long rest (at
least five days) 102 times. The Cubs only had 73 starts on at
least that much rest. The only team who had fewer was the
Giants, who survived much of the second half by keeping Alex
Cobb and Logan Webb on a regular rotation and filling the other
three days with piggyback starters, openers, and Johnny
Wholestaff."
#Post#: 481373--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 18, 2023, 9:16 am
---------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://theathletic.com/4971344/2023/10/18/jed-hoyer-cubs-prospects-trades/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&access_token=212065&redirected=1
"In their system, the Cubs have four prospects who are viewed as
consensus top-100 prospects in Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton,
Kevin Alcántara and Matt Shaw, while James Triantos, Owen
Caissie and Ben Brown are borderline candidates. Then there are
young emerging talents with top-100 upside like Jefferson Rojas,
Jackson Ferris and Moises Ballesteros. There are depth players
who could help MLB teams soon, like BJ Murray Jr., Pablo Aliendo
and Alexander Canario. There’s more beyond that group as well."
Interesting that Sharma mentioned Canario down in the 4th group
of "depth players" along with Pablo Aliendo. I'm hoping that
doesn't reflect the Cubs view.
#Post#: 481377--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: davep Date: October 18, 2023, 10:24 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Canario is the kind of prospect that brings out extremely widly
divergent views about their potential. He is the ultimate "Rob
Deer" prospect. Will his 50 home runs per year create more
value than the 200 strikeouts destroy?
In my opinion, the Cubs made a big mistake when they left a
slumping Tauchman in center during the last portion of the
stretch run, rather than putting Canario out in center for the
last several weeks. Canario is the kind of player that can have
a hot streak that will carry a team, even though his long term
potential may be limited. His kind of power can be intimidating
when one swing of the bat can change the course of the entire
season.
It is still my hope that PCA begins the season in Iowa, and
Canario plays center for at least a couple of months. I think
it will be good for PCA, and would give the Cubs a chance to do
a true evaluation of Canario at the MLB level. If nothing else,
it could drive up his trade value immensely.
#Post#: 481378--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 18, 2023, 10:49 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I'm really curious how the Cubs will plan for the bullpen, and
obviously curious how whatever they try will work out.
Palencia, Luke Little, perhaps Keegan, Cuas, perhaps even
Estrada, Brandon Hughes, even Burdi, maybe some of those guys
will emerge. In the good-season scenario, I think we'd somehow
end up with a good, deep, and talented bullpen. One where
nobody gets gassed because Ross is OK going with anybody on a
given day because they're all usually pretty good.
In the ideal world:
*Wesneski: More consistent command and composure. Seemed sharp
on occasion, but lacked consistency and command. Late season in
relief, he had some high-velocity fastballs, but seemed to be
overthrowing and getting super-wild. Think he'll need to settle
into better control, both with fastball and the slider, and
he'll need the slider to more consistently be a putaway.
Obviously the biggest thing will be getting more consistent
location so that he's not giving up HR's galore. Will he always
be a HR guy, probably yes. But he'll need to have that be way
less than last year. At this stage, I think he needs to go
all-in on becoming a relief guy, and focusing on his best
pitches that he can best command semi-consistently. I'd hope
that *IF* he could stack some effective outings and
hypothetically earn some trust, both Ross's and his own, that he
could maybe then get used more regularly, stay a little more
grooved in, feel less need to overthrow, freak out a little less
when things don't go well, and become more consistent. Curt
might also like it if he'd frequently get used as a 2-inning
guy.
*Keegan gets his 2022 velocity, command and confidence back.
His fastball becomes competitive enough to be useful, and his
curve gets under command so he can put guys away again.
*Hughes is healthy, and gets his 2022 pretty-goodness back.
*Palencia gets better with his slider, overthrows his fastball
less. He settles in and more reaonably commands all three of
his pitches, the 4-seam riding fastball, the 2-seam groundball
sinker, and the slider, much more consistently. Suddenly his
misses are close enough to be tempting, rather than missing so
badly that hitters don't chase. With some success comes some
confidence and composure. Both his four-seam high-fastballs
work, and his 2-seam sinker/groundball-oriented fastballs work,
and he's locating both of them reasonably well enough so that he
can better trust himself to throw strikes with them.
*Luke Little at age 23 gets a little better and more consistent.
As with Palencia, throws more strikes, and goes completely
haywire less often, and ends up being a pitcher who's really
tough on hitters most of his outings. Shows enough consistency
and composure that Ross gets him into the rotation, rather than
using him only when getting blown out.
*Burdi comes back healthy, and stays healthy. He finally
settles in, and with reasonable frequency is able to locate his
excellent stuff, both his gas and his breaking ball.
*Estrada is healthy and in rhythm, and is throwing high-rise
97-99 again, but now with fastball command; his slider is also
improved and under command and he's fun to have. Kinda same
story as with Palencia, Little, and Burdi, can he throw the
fastball with enough command to work the upper half of the
strikezone? And when he does, can he locate his slider well
enough to get some chase, versus missing so badly that it's just
a giveaway pitch?
*Cuas better settles into using the stuff that he has, and more
consistently locates
Obviously it's MLB and nothing ever goes ideally, much less
going 8/8 with wildmen transforming becoming into
not-excessively-wild men. But, seems to me that *IF* the
bullpen is going to end up being really good, some of it will
involve at least a couple of these guys emerging as useful,
usable guys. Would be nice to have some guys with power arms
that both have the stuff to work the upper half of the strike
zone, but also have the command to do so. More probably wild
stays wild; Wesneski never is consistent and always feeds HR's;
Palencia/Little/Estrada are just wild and will remain too wild
to be good.
#Post#: 481383--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: craig Date: October 18, 2023, 12:35 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
More bullpen:
1. I assume the following are roster locks at the beginning,
health permitting: Alzolay, Assad, Merryweather, Leiter, Smyly.
-Assad was maybe the Cubs ace down the stretch, but Hoyer is
committed to Hendricks-Stroman-Taillon-Steele. So *IF* Hoyer
does add an outside veteran, or *IF* HOyer hypothetically goes
with Wicks, and *IF* hypothetically no vets are DL's, it's
possible that Assad will start in the pen? And wait his turn
until one of the veterans gets hurt or bombs his way out of the
rotation? It could be **really** helpful to have a guy like
Assad available as a do-whatever guy. Having a good pitcher is
useful in any role, and he could be good as a late-inning guy or
a multi-inning guy, or shifting back into rotation.
2. Guaranteeing Merryweather, Leiter, Smyly April spots doesn't
mean they will be good. Merryweather may go haywire at any time
with his control. Leiter could be as bad in the spring as he
was in the late summer. Also possible that *IF* they have lefty
relievers, that Leiter might lose his role: *IF* his splitter
and location sag and two lefties pass him as lefty specialists,
what role is left for him? He's bad against righties. Smyly
might be as HR-prone in relief as was true in rotation.
But, that's how it often works: Hoyer starts with veteran guys
and it takes a while for the bad ones to fail their way out of
the mix and get replaced. We remember Robertson and Martin as
successes, but Norris and Chavez that same year were not.
3. Assad + Alzolay-Merryweather-Smyly-Leiter, that's five guys
already. What will Hoyer do beyond that?
4. I assume two guaranteed-contract veterans. One lefty, one
righty.
*Perhaps of higher cost and quality than the Boxberger-Fulmer
guaranteed signings this year? Or the Daniel Norris-Jesse
Chavez-Michael Givens-Chris Martin-David Robertson group of
2022?
-I'm thinking he will NOT prioritize re-signing Fulmer.
-But, who knows? I don't know who will actually be available,
and I don't know whether Hoyer wants to blitz the lux line; or
if he maybe figures we're still not close enough?
*This year he figured Fulmer and Boxberger were going to provide
stability and reliability, but that didn't work out quite as
they'd envisioned. Maybe he'll spend a little more for some
higher reliability?
5. My guess is he'll add two guaranteed-contract roster locks,
but then leave one spot open for somebody from the
Hughes-Wesneski-Keegan-Cuas-Palencia-Little-Estrada-Burdi to
Iowa, if nobody is injured. And sign some non-roster guys, as
usual, to further expand that pool.
6. I assume the non-roster pursuit will be harder than in past.
When we were in full rebuild mode, with almost no bullpen spots
locked, every non-roster guy had a clear shot. But *IF* we go
to camp with 7 bullpen spots kinda taken
(Alzolay-Merryweather-Leiter-Assad-Smyly-guaranteed
RH-guaranteed LH), I'm not sure Wrigley will be the most open
bullpen for a nonroster guy to crack?
7. *IF* Hoyeer signed **two** guaranteed, potentially good RH
relievers, I'd like that. Woudl rather sign a good 2nd righty
than a gotta-be-lefty lefty who isn't actually very good.
-Having a crowd of good, trustworthy RH guys appeals to me.
-I'd love to have a 4-game winning streak without needing either
Adbert or Merryweather or anybody else to go back-to-back.
-*IF* they didn't sign an external LH reliever, they'd still
have Smyly and Leiter; and hopefully Hughes will be healthy and
good? So Smyly, Hughes, Leiter, that's 3 lefty specialists with
Little at Iowa? Wouldn't need to be a problem.
-*IF* he adds two righties, though, you'd like ones who aren't
super-vulnerable against lefties. Fulmer, for example,
sometimes seemed absolutely weapon-less against lefties. I'd
like righties to be relatively fine if there's an inning with a
lefty or two.
8. For Curt: I wonder if they'll do any more 2-inning relief
next summer? Perhaps their analysis will see that as reducing
the wear a little? Maybe during August Ross would never use
Merryweather back-to-back innings; because what if he needs him
tomorrow, and I've got nobody else I trust? But *IF* you
hypothetically have a larger crowd of trust-worthy guy, maybe
Assad can pitch the 7th and 8th on Monday, and Merryweather the
7th and 8th on Tuesday, Keegan the 6th and 7th on Wednesday with
Smyle facing the lefties in the 8th? If you trust more guys,
can't you extend somebody for a second inning today figuring
you'll still have worthy options tomorrow?
#Post#: 481384--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: davep Date: October 18, 2023, 3:41 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I would go further than Curt. Not only do I not like to take
out a reliever after one good inning, I would like to see some
relievers go three innings, if they show themselves to be good
enough. With Asaad, if he shows good stuff but doesn't make the
roster for whatever reason, use him as a piggyback, finishing a
game in which he comes into the game in the fifth or sixth
inning. With the need for pinch hitters for relievers gone, I
would rather have someone with one good inning start the next,
than keep searching through your pen to find the one that sucks
that day.
#Post#: 481386--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘24
By: Deeg Date: October 18, 2023, 4:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=davep link=topic=628.msg481377#msg481377
date=1697642664]
Canario is the kind of prospect that brings out extremely widly
divergent views about their potential. He is the ultimate "Rob
Deer" prospect. Will his 50 home runs per year create more
value than the 200 strikeouts destroy?
[/quote]
That is one wildly inaccurate description of Canario.
*****************************************************
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page