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#Post#: 476098--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 10, 2023, 2:04 am
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Fangraphs chat:
Q: Comp: Matt Shaw – Ian Kinsler?
A: Eric A Longenhagen: oooh, I kinda dig that
#Post#: 476100--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: craig Date: July 10, 2023, 7:49 am
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=624.msg476088#msg476088
date=1688962264]
Maybe he saves some money to get something better later
on.....[/quote]
I'd imagine Wiggins would come in variably sub-slot.
Not sure with Shaw; Cubs have traditionally been relatively
slot-ish with their 1st-rounders, last year being an exception.
(And even last year, they didn't pay massively sub-slot even for
Horton.). But yeah, could imagine a conversation at #13, "Heh,
we'll pay #16 slot value, wanna take that secure?" Might not
have gone at 14 or 15 if they'd chosen elsewhere, and might not
have gotten full slot there even if so?
Still, even if they do come in a little sub-slot at 13 and 68,
it's not like those slot values are that massive that coming in
10% sub-slot is saving you a ton, or anything... But yeah,
seeing what they do today may provide some insight into whether
or not either or both should be sub-slots last night.
#Post#: 476101--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: craig Date: July 10, 2023, 7:59 am
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I like the Shaw pick. I know nothing, but like:
1. Hit-first over field-first. We don't need 8 defensive
shortstops.
2. College over teenager. I'm a little fearful of Ed Howard
and Cristian Hernandez, big-ticket teens that don't hit. And I
think scouting which teenagers will actually hit is hard.
3. Shorter guy with shorter levers. I'm cautious on long-lever
guys (Brennen Davis, Alcantara).
4. Some of the scouting notes seem pretty solid. All of the
write-ups and metrics seem consistent on good hitting and good
power.
5. I liked a note from Law: "snap-quick hands and immense
wrist and forearm strength". That sounds good.
6. I admit the 3B thing is kinda crucial. I wanted a
plus-hitting guy with some power as a 3B prospect. *IF* Shaw
has enough quickness and arm to play a solid 3rd, that's
different than if he's a 2B/LF guy behind Hoerner.
#Post#: 476102--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: craig Date: July 10, 2023, 8:13 am
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Wiggins turns 22 before Christmas. Horton was HS football,
Wiggins HS basketball guy. I suspect that as with Horton, they
must imagine they can pitch-lab introduce some stuff he didn't
use heavily before.
Blue has wanted going for ceiling over floor, so perhaps with
his fastball there is some untapped ceiling here, and as always
happens with Cubs, (?), he'll emerge as a terrific value.
But man, he seems almost exactly like the kind of pitcher the
cubs should NOT be drafting. Pitch-lab has had some value for
guys adding some velocity. But after some years of pitch-lab,
it seems increasingly evident that pitch-lab has negligible
capacity to fix wildmen. Wiggins seems like exactly the type of
wildman that is beyond the Cubs scope to help much. (Jensen,
Franklin, Palencia, Little, Thompson, Herz, ManRod, Estrada,
Maples, Burl...). Wiggins seems to profile that way?
Mixed reports: Some writeups mention significant vertical drop,
one mentioned 20-inch vertical drop on fastball; others suggest
fastball is straight. So kinda unclear whether the fastball
projects great or not. Cubs must think so, obviously, but given
the Cubs very poor D+D history, it's kinda hard to trust their
judgement.
#Post#: 476103--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 10, 2023, 10:29 am
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While Wiggins has some interesting traits. With his TJS being
in Feb, he might miss a chunk of 2024 as well. The control is
also kinda concerning, but teams like the Dodgers have been able
to fix that. There is upside at least.
As far as the Cubs farm system. The real value is in depth.
That is great when you already have top end talent, but that is
what the Cubs lack. The Pirates/Reds have top end talent.
#Post#: 476104--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 10, 2023, 10:47 am
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HTML https://theathletic.com/4678630/2023/07/10/cubs-draft-matt-shaw/
Cubs viewed Wiggins as somebody who could have been a first
round guy prior to the injury and they think the curve ball
could be a developed into a much better pitch.
#Post#: 476106--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: craig Date: July 10, 2023, 12:03 pm
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[quote]we were really impressed with how he looked prior to that
in the fall and then how he looked in Omaha the same year that
Cade Horton was pitching (in the College World Series). Jaxon
has a mid-to-upper 90s power fastball with good ride up in the
zone. He’s got a power slider. Something that really stood out
to our scouts was the development of his curveball. Talking to
our guys in pitching development, we think there might be
something untapped to explore there potentially.”[/quote]
"Good ride" is interesting observation, given that a couple of
the media reports noted vertical drop; while others have
observed the fastball as "straight" and "true", such that it's
easier to hit than the velocity might suggest. Time will tell.
I imagine that as with many inconsistent young pitchers, the
same guy might be throwing ten fastballs within a given inning
and have a couple with nice ride, a couple with strong drop, and
a handful that are straight and hittable, obviously they won't
all move the same.
I'd guess he'll get some minor-league box-score innings in at
some point next summer, maybe kinda like Drew Gray's schedule?
Between TJ-rehab, plus pretty much being a pitch-lab project
guy, not likely to throw more than 20-40 innings next summer?
Try to really get rolling in 2025? Or maybe my timeline is off,
and he'll be good to go in April?
#Post#: 476107--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 10, 2023, 12:36 pm
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The usual recovery time for a traditional TJS is 12-18 months.
The results long term are better when it is on the 15-18 month
end, so you'd be looking at May-August for returning to action.
That assumes no set backs.
#Post#: 476108--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 10, 2023, 1:03 pm
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Here’s a piece about Wiggins from a local Arkansas site when he
was diagnosed needing TJ. Talks about his pre-injury “Fall
Classic” showing when “looked like a different pitcher” and
more:
HTML https://www.bestofarkansassports.com/arkansas-baseball-jaxon-wiggins-tommy-john-surgery/
#Post#: 476109--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 10, 2023, 1:32 pm
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Round 3 Josh Rivera U of Florida SS Senior
BA:
Rivera has been on the national scouting scene for a long time.
He was a prep standout who showed impressive defensive chops and
pure hitting ability, but after reaching Florida he never quite
figured it out with the bat after dealing with a series of
nagging injuries for many years. Something clicked for him in
his 2023 draft year, as Rivera turned in an exceptional
offensive season and hit .348/.447/.617 with 19 home runs as
well as a 14.7% walk rate and 11.2% strikeout rate. The
6-foot-2, 215-pound righthanded hitter has plenty of bat speed,
showed all-fields power and also hammered 92-plus mph fastball
velocity this spring, to the tune of a .422/.513/.656 line. It’s
a big and aggressive swing with plenty of length to the bat
path, but Rivera has shown a solid ability to manipulate the
barrel to all parts of the zone—and he’s had success expanding
it at times as well. He might need to become more selective at
the next level, but his improved walk and strikeouts rates this
spring offer some encouragement about his approach. Despite a
long finish, Rivera gets out of the box well and runs hard down
the line, turning in above-average or plus home-to-first times,
though he might be more of an average runner overall. He has
solid defensive actions and arm strength at shortstop, with a
chance to stick at the position, though third base or second
could be a landing spot in pro ball as well. Rivera should be a
priority senior sign with day one buzz given his strong season
and prep pedigree.
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