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#Post#: 476070--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 9, 2023, 8:29 pm
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I don’t see any “angst” about Shaw, just realistic reasons why
he’s ranked as a mid-teens prospect and not top ten. The only
real complaint I would have is not taking Teel, who should have
been long gone.
#Post#: 476071--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 9, 2023, 8:32 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=624.msg476067#msg476067
date=1688951730]
Unless you have a top five pick, you aren't going to get a high
probability star player. Your best bet is to go after the "very
good" and bring in the superstars through IFA and free agency.
I don't understand the angst about Shaw. The scouting reports
indicate a good contact, good power, and the only knock on him
seems to be that he will not stay at shortstop. But let's be
realistic. If a good contact, good power college player is also
expected to be a good defensive shortstop, he isn't going to be
around at pick 13. At this point, for the Cubs to sacrifice
offense to pick a shortstop is silly, since with Swanson at
short long on a long term contract, and Hoerner able to move to
shortstop without great defensive sacrifice, the last thing the
Cubs need is a "good hitter for a shortstop" who will have to
move to another position that requires greater offensive
ability.
I know nothing about Shaw other than the scouting reports, but
the scouting reports seem to be about what you could expect at
pick 13.
[/quote]
So all the Cubs need to do is spend at the the top of market to
get a star player? That doesn’t seem like something Hoyer is
going to do.
I might have been low on Shaw’s power, but I also think I’m too
high on what Hoerner’s power is. Shaw is a good pick. I
haven’t had an issue with Cubs picks. I just think they
sacrafice ceiling for floor. That’s going to lead to missing on
guys like Javy.
#Post#: 476072--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 9, 2023, 8:44 pm
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I also think it’s important to be as realistic about what
Hoerner isn’t as what he is. He’s got a .714 career OPS
(sub-700 this season). He’s a good player but it’s not like he
was some genius steal of the draft - he’s no star.
#Post#: 476074--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: davep Date: July 9, 2023, 9:12 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=624.msg476070#msg476070
date=1688952549]
I don’t see any “angst” about Shaw, just realistic reasons why
he’s ranked as a mid-teens prospect and not top ten. The only
real complaint I would have is not taking Teel, who should have
been long gone.
[/quote]
There are several valid reason why he was ranked as a mid-teen
prospect. That is why he is a reasonable pick as a mid-teen
pick.
#Post#: 476075--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 9, 2023, 9:13 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=624.msg476074#msg476074
date=1688955135]
There are several valid reason why he was ranked as a mid-teen
prospect. That is why he is a reasonable pick as a mid-teen
pick.
[/quote]
Who and what are you arguing with, exactly?
#Post#: 476076--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 9, 2023, 9:20 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=624.msg476072#msg476072
date=1688953448]
I also think it’s important to be as realistic about what
Hoerner isn’t as what he is. He’s got a .714 career OPS
(sub-700 this season). He’s a good player but it’s not like he
was some genius steal of the draft - he’s no star.
[/quote]
Love OPS but there’s more to player evaluation than OPS. Hoerner
has 6.8 bWAR (6.1 fWAR) in 1 1/2 seasons of 2022 and 2023.
So, he’s currently basically a 4 WAR player for now. That’s very
close to all-star caliber guy, typically considered at 4/5 WAR.
Nico has big assets at defense and baserunning that adds a heap
to his value. Also, very valuable to have a legit SS playing
elsewhere who can slide over to SS if your regular SS gets hurt
(as happening now).
Don’t really see Shaw as a replacement for Hoerner. Will be
interesting to see if Cubs work Shaw some at 3B. In any case,
his value is as a potential IF bat somewhere. Could even move
Hoerner to 3B if Shaw’s bat comes quickly and he’s limited to
2B.
Shaw was MVP at the Cape a summer ago, which is a good
indicator, playing different positions.
#Post#: 476077--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: davep Date: July 9, 2023, 9:22 pm
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You. You seem to be saying that if someone isn't a star, he is
bad. I agree with P2. A team can win without superstars, and
we are not that far away from a very good team. I am impressed
with the job that Hoyer and his team have done given the
disaster that Epstein left behind.
#Post#: 476078--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 9, 2023, 9:25 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=624.msg476077#msg476077
date=1688955741]
You. You seem to be saying that if someone isn't a star, he is
bad. I agree with P2. A team can win without superstars, and
we are not that far away from a very good team. I am impressed
with the job that Hoyer and his team have done given the
disaster that Epstein left behind.
[/quote]
ROFL. I seem to think your perception of what other people are
saying is a bit skewed.
As to how far we are away from being a very good team, I would
say a 75-win team without any likely stars in the pipeline away,
however far that is.
#Post#: 476079--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 9, 2023, 9:30 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=624.msg476074#msg476074
date=1688955135]
There are several valid reason why he was ranked as a mid-teen
prospect. That is why he is a reasonable pick as a mid-teen
pick.
[/quote]
Law has Shaw at #7 overall and I saw some mocks last few weeks
that had Shaw in top 10. So, wouldn’t get too carried away with
mid-teen characterizations. This is a draft with five
exceptional talents at the top and then a sizeable, deep group
thereafter who are kind of similar in value.
In any case, this is part of Law’s scouting report on Shaw:
“Shaw makes consistent, hard contact, and his average launch
angle of 26 degrees puts him right in line for a high Barrel
percentage. He’s walked more than he’s struck out so far this
year, and after hitting 22 homers as a sophomore, he hit 23 this
spring before even getting to the Big Ten tournament…. I think
he’ll be an above-average defender at second, as he’ll show
adequate range at short — it’s his arm that will move him off,
not his hands or feet. Even at second base, he has All-Star
upside because of the bat.
#Post#: 476080--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 9, 2023, 9:44 pm
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Law 7, MLP Pipeline 16, BA 17, Prospects Live 23. Consensus
somewhere around mid-teens. A slot-appropriate pick, not a
reach or a guy who fell, who’ll likely sign for about slot
money. In other words perfectly reasonable and about what you’d
expect picking 13th.
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