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#Post#: 475974--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 8, 2023, 9:15 am
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=624.msg475966#msg475966
date=1688789967]
Well, Termarr Johnson is 5’8 and he went #4 overall last year.
Recall a guy named Corey Patterson (5’10 same as Carroll) and he
went #3 overall. Put another way, if the projection is very
high, the player can still go very high irrespective of height.
DBacks made a good call on Carroll and that is based mostly on
good scouting and good luck. The notion that “power is one of
the easiest things to project” with a mid-round-one guy in the
draft is overstated——nobody really knows who will hit, power or
otherwise. Sure, when a guy has a few years as a pro already, as
you note with Carroll years after the draft, you can have a much
better idea although still unpredictable. But, on draft day? All
a big question mark and hope for the best, except for maybe the
occasional elite guy(s) that everybody loves.
Maybe Schanuel at #13 is a poor idea. I have no idea. My point
about that is if Cubs pick him at #13, it’s because they are
seeing something that the EV data is perhaps not fully capturing
and they really like him and they have infinitely more expertise
on the matter than you or me. Maybe that would turn out to be a
bad pick or maybe a great pick. That turns on scouting and luck,
not because power is easily projected or not projected.
[/quote]
Here’s Law’s draft ranking from 2019
4. Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle) -- Carroll gets
raves for his athleticism, speed, feel to hit, and range in
center field, and he has the hand strength and swing to get to
above-average power down the road, with his arm the only tool
that doesn't project to more than average. He's 5 foot 10 and a
bit small, which I keep hearing as a negative, but if he were 6
foot 3 he'd be in the mix to go first overall. Given how many
hitters who are under 6 feet but have the hand and wrist
strength to drive the ball are succeeding in the majors, this
should be a non-issue.
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=624.msg475953#msg475953
date=1688782939]
Now maybe a team looks at him and they think with a swing change
you can unlock more power.
[/quote]
That is a much more efficient way to make your point. I never
discounted that there could be a way he adds more power, just
that something would have to change. His swing as it currently
stands doesn’t project for power. His plate skills are
interesting. I don’t know that I’d want to draft a guy that
high who so much of his value would be based on his bat and the
bat lacks a skill.
#Post#: 475981--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 8, 2023, 1:34 pm
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Thanks for the Law comments. I wonder if DBacks had been picking
#3 or 4, they take someone other than Corbin Carroll. Sometimes,
luck out drafting lower. So many guys drafted middle/late 1st
round turn out better than top of the draft——as in EVERY YEAR.
Luck and (educated) guesswork.
#Post#: 476020--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 9, 2023, 4:44 pm
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Projections for the Cubs are still all over the place.
#Post#: 476021--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 9, 2023, 5:21 pm
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Waldrup the starter from Florida apparently has a cut ride
fastball that the Cubs like and a nasty splitter. He might be a
name to watch.
#Post#: 476022--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 9, 2023, 5:23 pm
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Ah, nasty splitter - the pitch that puts so many surgeons’ kids
through college.
#Post#: 476024--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 9, 2023, 6:08 pm
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Throwing a ball repeatedly over hand with high velocity is an
injury risk. Split-finger fastballs aren’t a risk for arm
injury.
Not saying I want him, just that he has a fastball that the Cubs
like.
#Post#: 476026--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 9, 2023, 6:13 pm
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Skenes goes #1 to the Pirates
#Post#: 476028--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: JeffH Date: July 9, 2023, 6:14 pm
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Someday we will look back on that as a mistake for the ages.
#Post#: 476032--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 9, 2023, 6:38 pm
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5 best guys are off the board. It will be interesting to see
where it goes from here.
#Post#: 476035--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 9, 2023, 6:40 pm
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A’s take Nick Madrigal 2.0, only he can play SS.
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