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#Post#: 476379--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 16, 2023, 9:40 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> That's really interesting that so few teams involve PD in the
recruitment. It totally makes sense to involve them; why
wouldn't everybody do that? Like Kantro said, players want to
get better and be as good as possible. Seems natural to include
PD guys sharing ideas about how they can help guys improve. And
sure, the more they believe that you can help them to thrive,
the more attractive it would be to sign at a price the Cubs
offer.
>
> I'm trying to think about what you're recruiting against in
different cases. Options are other teams, both before and after
you, or school.
> 1. Maybe for Shaw, you're offering full slot in advance, so
that *if* Anaheim or AZ want him at a sub-slot at pick-13 slot,
he'll say no and take your offer?
> 2. Obviously HS guys have college option. You're recruiting
Melendez against Rice, Hope against UNC.
> 3. Ethan Flanagan's a sophomore; so you're recruiting against
junior year.
> 4. College juniors, I kinda feel like you shouldn't need to
recruit as persuasively, especially if you're willing to offer
slot. Do they really want to go back for senior and come back
with zero leverage next year? Maybe sometimes: maybe Singer
thinks he could pitch himself back into the top 50; or Bowser
thinks he might hit his way into a 2nd-day selection? But most
juniors don't want to go back to school, and few get overslots,
so if on the board when your turn comes, a slow offer would
probably win pretty easily. If you want sub-slot agreements,
though, then I imagine that requires some recruiting
> 5. I wonder how far in advance deals are arranged? Melendez
case, $150 overslot in round 7. Do they work that out during the
20 picks in front of his actual selection? Or were they already
doing their recruitment and explaining their $400K offer in
round 5, and doing their PD pitch? So that he knows to decline
any late-5th round offers or 6th round offers that aren't as
appealing, whether for financial or PD reasons? Or had they
already had that discussion on Monday morning, before day 2 ever
got rolling? With a 4th-round Singer, were you actually setting
your offer and making your PD pitch on Sunday night, so he knows
not to accept any sub-slot offers in round 3?
>
--- End Quote ---
First round talents are probably less likely to give a discount.
It is probably more likely once the bonuses get below $1
million. If I’m a first round guy I want the most money because
that can be life changing money. If you’re talking about a
!500,000 bonus that is still really great, but $450,000 with a
plan to make you better might be a better deal.
#Post#: 476425--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 18, 2023, 10:53 am
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Rosario signed for slot.
#Post#: 476426--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 18, 2023, 11:15 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Rosario signed for slot.
--- End Quote ---
Interesting. Not many HS guys signing for slot after round 2.
#Post#: 476445--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 18, 2023, 2:47 pm
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Jim Callis
@jimcallisMLB
5th-rder Michael Carico signs w/@Cubsfor $400k (pick 149 value =
$416,900). @DavidsonBASE C, monster sophomore year, broke wrist
this spring, solid power & arm strength are his two best tools.
@MLBDraft
#Post#: 476453--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 18, 2023, 5:03 pm
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reb or others, are college junior draftees eligible for the
draft-and-follow process? If Bowser goes back and has a
breakout senior year, could the Cubs still sign him, if they had
the $$?
How about for Flanagan, the draft-eligible sophomore? If he has
a good junior year, would we be eligible to sign him?
#Post#: 476454--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 18, 2023, 5:15 pm
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HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview
Day1+2 signing bonuses are now listed for all but rounds 2-3-4.
Other than $145K superslot Melendez, others are either at slot
or modest below, 10th round JC kid furthest below at $68K
subslot.
Looks like *IF* rounds 2-3-4 sign for slot, after the Melendez
overslot the Cubs would still have ~$400K to spend. I'd assume
TJ wildman Wiggins might be variably underslot, and senior-sign
Rivera also. So I'd think Kantro might have well beyond $400K
in overslot?
Curious how Kantro envisions applying that:
1. All of it on Hope? Or some other left over for other
targets?
2. Some on 4th round Singer?
3. Maybe Flanagan, the UCLA sophomore?
4. Might Kantro like a Day3 college junior enough to superslot
one?
5. Save for draft-and-follow? In case Flanagan, Bowser, or
Grayson Moore go back to school and improve?
#Post#: 476455--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 18, 2023, 5:16 pm
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Think that draft-and-follow applies only to players attending a
JUCO after the draft signing deadline.
Seems highly unlikely that guys at Stanford and UCLA would be
transferring to JUCO.
Doesn’t apply to guys just going back to their 4-year school
after not signing.
MLB used to have a draft in January for unsigned players from
the previous summer draft. Long discontinued.
#Post#: 476458--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 18, 2023, 5:40 pm
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Thanks reb. Yeah, I'd wondered if it was juco only, or if
Stanford, UCLA, and Vanderbilt guys could be eligible. If not,
Kantro isn't saving any $$ for that purpose.
Maybe he really really really likes Hope, and Hope really is
going to get 3rd or 4th round money.
#Post#: 476459--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Deeg
Date: July 18, 2023, 6:04 pm
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Carico is probably the biggest wild card in this draft class.
Murdered weak competition, hit .125 in his only exposure to
better pitchers (only 24 ABs). It's all an educated guess with
him even more than most prospects.
#Post#: 476461--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 18, 2023, 6:40 pm
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Rivera signs for $725,000. Slot is $872,400.
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