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#Post#: 476302--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 15, 2023, 5:03 pm
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--- Quote from: chgojhawk link ---
>
> I don't think Kantro was in charge of the Cubs draft back in
2019 but I know something similar happened with the Cubs 3rd
round pick. The Cubs called Matt Cronin and talked to him about
being their 3rd Round selection. They offered him roughly 33%
of the Slot for that pick. Cronin didn't accept the offer. The
Cubs took Michael McAvene and signed him for under slot, but for
more than they offered Cronin.
>
> I was pretty disappointed at the time as I liked Cronin more
as a prospect than I did McAvene. Cronin is struggling this
year, but he has been the better minor league pitcher thus far
(for whatever that is worth). Both have had some injury issues
and neither seems to be a MLB prospect any longer. Of course
with Pitchers that can change quickly.
>
--- End Quote ---
Yeah, seems like Cronin would have been the better pick.
But, doubt that Cronin was offered only 33% of slot. Cronin came
into draft a top 75 overall prospect by both MLB Pipeline and
BA. Cubs slot at #3 (pick #103) was $565,600 and McAvene signed
for $500,000. Cronin went to Nats at pick #123 and signed for
slot at $464,500.
So, would make little sense for Cubs to offer Cronin under
$200,000 and think any chance he would go for that.
Cronin was rostered by Nats before this season to protect from
Rule 5, so was on good path to majors, unlike McAvene with Cubs.
Think cronin is injured now, so who knows. Both were reliever
prospects draft time, so makes sense that Cubs considered both
as kind of interchangeable at #3.
With McAvene and Burl Carraway not-so-hot as very high picks,
maybe Cubs have altered their former interest in drafting a pure
reliever first two or three rounds.
#Post#: 476305--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 15, 2023, 5:46 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
By the way, if watching Cubs/ Red Sox, Cubs #5 pick in 2011
draft has pitched in both games of this series, lefty reliever
Tayler Scott.
Cubs 2011 draft was pretty interesting——the Javy Baez draft.
Think this was one of those drafts when MLB had slotting but no
penalties for a club exceeding their total draft pool.
So, Dillon Maples in round 14 got $2.5 M——almost as much as
Javy’s 1st round money ($2.625).
Cubs also spent $375 on Gretzky’s kid and a whopping $1.275 on
Dunston’s kid.
Believe it or not, Dunston Jr. is still playing! He’s in
independent Atlantic League, I guess still trying to get to
majors.
#Post#: 476310--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: JeffH
Date: July 15, 2023, 7:19 pm
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
> ...lefty reliever Tayler Scott.
--- End Quote ---
Scott is a righty.
#Post#: 476339--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: chgojhawk
Date: July 16, 2023, 1:42 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
>
> Yeah, seems like Cronin would have been the better pick.
>
> But, doubt that Cronin was offered only 33% of slot. Cronin
came into draft a top 75 overall prospect by both MLB Pipeline
and BA. Cubs slot at #3 (pick #103) was $565,600 and McAvene
signed for $500,000. Cronin went to Nats at pick #123 and signed
for slot at $464,500.
>
> So, would make little sense for Cubs to offer Cronin under
$200,000 and think any chance he would go for that.
>
> Cronin was rostered by Nats before this season to protect from
Rule 5, so was on good path to majors, unlike McAvene with Cubs.
Think cronin is injured now, so who knows. Both were reliever
prospects draft time, so makes sense that Cubs considered both
as kind of interchangeable at #3.
>
> With McAvene and Burl Carraway not-so-hot as very high picks,
maybe Cubs have altered their former interest in drafting a pure
reliever first two or three rounds.
>
--- End Quote ---
Cronin's dad is a friend of mine. We were texting during the
draft. I asked if they had heard from the Cubs and he went on a
rant. We aren't close friends and I wouldn't have been at the
top of his texting partners on Matt's draft day, but I asked the
question that touched an unintended nerve. Matt and his dad
both had the Cubs in his top group of teams they were hoping for
as the dad spends time in Chicago for work and Matt was a Cubs
fan. Add in that the Cubs were in the midst of a decent run of
success and the Cubs were highly desirable.
#Post#: 476341--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 16, 2023, 2:22 pm
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Yeah, don’t doubt that Cubs didn’t meet Cronin’s price tag, but
Cubs are not going to top out at $200,000 for a top 75 guy they
like and then offer a similar (or lesser) guy $500,000 at the
same spot. Think the dad fibbed/exaggerated to you about the
offer amount. But, interesting story about the draft process and
the jockeying that goes on. Thanks for sharing.
#Post#: 476347--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 16, 2023, 2:48 pm
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Yeah, that's an interesting account, and gives a good feel for
some of the process. I agree with reb, that Cubs were probably
trying an underslot on Cronin as they ended up doing with
McAvene, but that 1/3 is probably hyperbole. I could imagine
two hypotheticals: Cubs liked Cronin and McAvene and gave Cronin
first shot at the deal they ended up offering McAvene. Cronin
declined, ended up going later, and ended up settling for less.
Or, perhaps Cubs liked McAvene better, price being equal; and
offered Cronin first but only at a lower deal than they got
McAvene at. When Cronin wouldn't say yes for less than McAvene,
they pullled off of Cronin and just went with the more expensive
McAvene.
McAvene obviously never turned into anything, but I thought he
was a very promising guy prior to his arm going bad (again.).
I'm always hesitant to fault scouting when a guy fails due to
injury. Who knows what he'd been without the arm damaged?
Post-injury McAvene has JAG velocity if that; he had big
velocity before.
#Post#: 476353--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 16, 2023, 6:20 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote ---
> The #Cubs today announced they have agreed to terms with seven
players from the 2023 #MLBDraft, including first-round selection
INF Matt Shaw.
>
> Along with Shaw, the Cubs have agreed to terms with C Michael
Carico (fifth round), OF Alfonsin Rosario (sixth round), OF
Brett Bateman (eighth round), 1B Jonathon Long (ninth round),
RHP Luis Martinez-Gomez (10th round) and 3B Brian Kalmer (18th
round).
--- End Quote ---
HTML https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1680605557328150529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1680605557328150529%7Ctwgr%5E2b3f5baf4567982022e272b50596a7a8ac361fce%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnorthsidebaseball.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fcubs%2Fstatus%2F1680605557328150529%3Fs%3D4626t%3DW37ISIrjUHdGm-Y3K3j6Aw
#Post#: 476362--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 16, 2023, 7:20 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> …….I could imagine two hypotheticals: Cubs liked Cronin and
McAvene and gave Cronin first shot at the deal they ended up
offering McAvene. Cronin declined, ended up going later, and
ended up settling for less. Or, perhaps Cubs liked McAvene
better, price being equal; and offered Cronin first but only at
a lower deal than they got McAvene at. When Cronin wouldn't say
yes for less than McAvene, they pullled off of Cronin and just
went with the more expensive McAvene….
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Guessing it’s the former because would think club would first
contact the guy they liked more. Then, if no-go, go to Plan B.
Interesting case of human nature. Player turns down more money
from Cubs than he ended up having to agree to later, elsewhere,
after falling from round 3 to round 4. Oops!
Then, the Dad blames the Cubs to friends and acquaintances and
fibs about amount Cubs actually offered. People do that kind of
thing all the time to save face or what have you.
#Post#: 476363--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 16, 2023, 7:22 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> He also mentioned they try and use player development plans to
get a lower signing bonus during those calls.
>
> Kiley McDaniel mentioned on the draft that only about 4 teams
bring their player development people into the draft. It would
appear that the Cubs are one of the 4.
--- End Quote ---
That's really interesting that so few teams involve PD in the
recruitment. It totally makes sense to involve them; why
wouldn't everybody do that? Like Kantro said, players want to
get better and be as good as possible. Seems natural to include
PD guys sharing ideas about how they can help guys improve. And
sure, the more they believe that you can help them to thrive,
the more attractive it would be to sign at a price the Cubs
offer.
I'm trying to think about what you're recruiting against in
different cases. Options are other teams, both before and after
you, or school.
1. Maybe for Shaw, you're offering full slot in advance, so
that *if* Anaheim or AZ want him at a sub-slot at pick-13 slot,
he'll say no and take your offer?
2. Obviously HS guys have college option. You're recruiting
Melendez against Rice, Hope against UNC.
3. Ethan Flanagan's a sophomore; so you're recruiting against
junior year.
4. College juniors, I kinda feel like you shouldn't need to
recruit as persuasively, especially if you're willing to offer
slot. Do they really want to go back for senior and come back
with zero leverage next year? Maybe sometimes: maybe Singer
thinks he could pitch himself back into the top 50; or Bowser
thinks he might hit his way into a 2nd-day selection? But most
juniors don't want to go back to school, and few get overslots,
so if on the board when your turn comes, a slow offer would
probably win pretty easily. If you want sub-slot agreements,
though, then I imagine that requires some recruiting
5. I wonder how far in advance deals are arranged? Melendez
case, $150 overslot in round 7. Do they work that out during the
20 picks in front of his actual selection? Or were they already
doing their recruitment and explaining their $400K offer in
round 5, and doing their PD pitch? So that he knows to decline
any late-5th round offers or 6th round offers that aren't as
appealing, whether for financial or PD reasons? Or had they
already had that discussion on Monday morning, before day 2 ever
got rolling? With a 4th-round Singer, were you actually setting
your offer and making your PD pitch on Sunday night, so he knows
not to accept any sub-slot offers in round 3?
#Post#: 476365--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 16, 2023, 7:35 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> ....Player turns down more money from Cubs than he ended up
having to agree to later, elsewhere, ...
--- End Quote ---
Similar to the "Gutierrez effect"!
*Many CBA's ago, big-league FA's had a deadline by which to
either sign, be offered, or no longer be able to sign with the
original club. It was fairly early in the free agent season,
~Dec 10.
*Ricky Gutierrez declined a Cubs offer, ended up signing for
barely half of what the Cubs had offered.
*Shawon Dunston had a good offensive season at age 32 (.788 OPS,
hit .296, and OBP of .317, some of his top Cubs numbers...).
Declined a Cubs offer, and signed with San Fran for less than
half what his last year with Cubs had paid.
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