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#Post#: 476224--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Deeg
Date: July 13, 2023, 12:04 am
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I don�t really see why Shaw would settle for less than slot - he
went basically right in the middle of his projected range.
#Post#: 476226--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 13, 2023, 1:36 am
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In last ten drafts, Cubs have gone exactly at slot first round
several times: Wicks, Howard, Hoerner, Bryant.
Guessing that likely with Shaw. Exactly at slot.
Of course, considerably under slot with Horton, Jensen,
Schwarber.
Slightly under slot with Happ and same with Little/Lange.
Almora in 2012 was $650,000 above slot. Think he was the most
recent above slot first-rounder.
#Post#: 476227--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 13, 2023, 1:38 am
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--- Quote from: CurtOne link ---
>
> Ron, you have no idea how ironic Reb's post is.
>
--- End Quote ---
Ron- It was so ironic that only No-Idea Curt sees the irony.
#Post#: 476234--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 13, 2023, 9:24 am
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Yeah, good chance Shaw is straight slot. As reb noted, Cubs
have done that in 2-of-3 Kantro drafts, and 3 of last 5. And as
deeg mentions,
media rankers generally had Shaw in the teens, with Law and
somebody else as high as 7th and 10th, and one or two others in
low 20's So slot seems very plausible.
8 of 39 first-rounds picks last year signed for slot. 2 in the
10-20 range signed at slot.
I imagine it's always case-by-case. If you like Shaw better
than Teel, Gonzalez, Wilken, or Taylor, take your guy; don't
lose him over $200-400K.
But suppose you like three guys pretty much equally at 13, flip
a coin; then logical to call their agents and ask which will
sign at #15 slot. If one will but the other two won't, then
take the 15-slot-price guy, and free $436K to get somebody
better later. From the agent's perspective, *IF* they believe
that you'll go with somebody else if you insist on slot, how
wise is it to decline a pick? Slot drops by >$200K each from
13>14>15.
In this draft, it doesn't appear obvious that Kantro was
assuming or playing with underslot savings. Other than Rosario
and Melendez, were there any obvious overslots on day 2? Unless
Rosario is a bigger ticket than I expect, doesn't seem like they
were really targeting superslots on Monday knowing they'd agree
to $400K-under on Shaw, or anything like that. So I kinda feel
like the subsequent drafting more than anything else points to a
straight slot for Shaw. Not like taking Ferris and Mule last
year.
#Post#: 476235--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 13, 2023, 9:54 am
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This draft had a couple of tiers. The guys that went 1-5 where
a tier by themselves. After that the guys from 6-20 where in
another tier. The difference between #5 and #6 is a lot greater
than they difference between #6 and #20.
#Post#: 476236--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 13, 2023, 9:56 am
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Hope seems a fun lottery ticket. Didn't I see an 80-grade for
speed? Have the Cubs ever had any player or prospect with an
80-grade in anything? Not even PCA for defense, right? Would
be super-fun to have an 80-speed guy who could be a serious
base-stealer in today's steal-friendly game.
Obviously Billy Hamilton shows speed with no hit doesn't get you
far. But the scouting report also suggested good power, so
speedster + power + big arm, the possibilities seem fun.
If only hitting wasn't so hard and rare! I suspect that *IF*
he'd shown excellent hitting capacity to scouts, then an
80-speed/power/arm dancer wouldn't be hanging out till 3rd day?
Think there was report that in some all-star game, he had 4K's
in 5AB. But hopefully he'll improve and end up being able to
hit enough to be a really good and fun steal.
Curious whether he'll sign for the standard $200-250 3rd-day
superslot, or if Cubs liked him enough to commit 4th/5th round
money for him.
#Post#: 476237--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 13, 2023, 9:58 am
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Kantrovitz on the Cubs weekly podcast said they are going to
start Shaw at SS, but they think he will move to 2B or 3B in the
future.
#Post#: 476238--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: craig
Date: July 13, 2023, 10:21 am
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HTML https://theathletic.com/4686958/2023/07/12/cubs-jaxon-wiggins-mlb-draft/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&access_token=212065&redirected=1
#Post#: 476244--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 13, 2023, 11:55 am
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HTML https://theathletic.com/4687381/2023/07/13/cubs-draft-analysis-prospects/?source=emp_shared_article
Fantastic article by Sharma, it gives info on what the Cubs saw
in Rivera, Rosario, Melendez, Long, Hope and Boswer and in some
cases the plan on what they need to change.
#Post#: 476247--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 13, 2023, 12:38 pm
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Signing deadline is July 25.
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