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#Post#: 475922--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 7, 2023, 5:40 pm
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Just take the best middle of the order bat on the board. We’re
woefully short on them at every level.
#Post#: 475924--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 7, 2023, 5:58 pm
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The problem is the good middle of the order bats are going
before the Cubs pick or they are high schoolers.
#Post#: 475926--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 7, 2023, 6:30 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=624.msg475924#msg475924
date=1688770726]
The problem is the good middle of the order bats are going
before the Cubs pick or they are high schoolers.
[/quote]
Then take the high schooler.
#Post#: 475932--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 7, 2023, 7:50 pm
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Of course, nobody can really project very well who is going to
be a good middle of the order bat.
So many examples. One of the latest: Corbin Carroll went #16
overall.
Just have to take the guy you like the most.
Schanuel, the 1B, is said to have “solid” power but not “huge”
power. Guesswork as to how that plays out as a pro. If Cubs take
him, probably means they like his power potential.
#Post#: 475953--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CUBluejays Date: July 7, 2023, 9:22 pm
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Carroll went 16 because he was short, his talent was always
there.
Power is one of the easier things to project, and it got better
with statcast data. Now maybe a team looks at him and they
think with a swing change you can unlock more power.
Carroll coming off his 21 year old season had a 55/60 Raw power
grade and 50/55 game power (present/future). Schanuel coming
off his 21 year old season is 30/50 Raw power, 45/45 game power.
50 is league average. Schanuel’s 90th percentile EV is 106
with the major league average is 103.5. That sounds decent
until you take into account he was in a bad conference with a
metal bat. His plate skills are intriguing, but the bat really
has to play at 1B and without the power it makes it really hard.
#Post#: 475961--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CurtOne Date: July 7, 2023, 11:01 pm
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Cody Bellinger was a 4th round pick. Means at least 90 players
were picked before him.
#Post#: 475964--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Deeg Date: July 7, 2023, 11:16 pm
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What was Piazza, 62nd round?
#Post#: 475965--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: CurtOne Date: July 7, 2023, 11:19 pm
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You have lots of stories of guys like Pujols and Piazza being
picked way toward the end makes one believe there's always
somebody lurking that didn't get scouted properly.
#Post#: 475966--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Reb Date: July 7, 2023, 11:19 pm
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[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=624.msg475953#msg475953
date=1688782939]
Carroll went 16 because he was short, his talent was always
there.
Power is one of the easier things to project, and it got better
with statcast data. Now maybe a team looks at him and they
think with a swing change you can unlock more power.
Carroll coming off his 21 year old season had a 55/60 Raw power
grade and 50/55 game power (present/future). Schanuel coming
off his 21 year old season is 30/50 Raw power, 45/45 game power.
50 is league average. Schanuel’s 90th percentile EV is 106
with the major league average is 103.5. That sounds decent
until you take into account he was in a bad conference with a
metal bat. His plate skills are intriguing, but the bat really
has to play at 1B and without the power it makes it really hard.
[/quote]
Well, Termarr Johnson is 5’8 and he went #4 overall last year.
Recall a guy named Corey Patterson (5’10 same as Carroll) and he
went #3 overall. Put another way, if the projection is very
high, the player can still go very high irrespective of height.
DBacks made a good call on Carroll and that is based mostly on
good scouting and good luck. The notion that “power is one of
the easiest things to project” with a mid-round-one guy in the
draft is overstated——nobody really knows who will hit, power or
otherwise. Sure, when a guy has a few years as a pro already, as
you note with Carroll years after the draft, you can have a much
better idea although still unpredictable. But, on draft day? All
a big question mark and hope for the best, except for maybe the
occasional elite guy(s) that everybody loves.
Maybe Schanuel at #13 is a poor idea. I have no idea. My point
about that is if Cubs pick him at #13, it’s because they are
seeing something that the EV data is perhaps not fully capturing
and they really like him and they have infinitely more expertise
on the matter than you or me. Maybe that would turn out to be a
bad pick or maybe a great pick. That turns on scouting and luck,
not because power is easily projected or not projected.
#Post#: 475972--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2023
By: Playtwo Date: July 8, 2023, 7:42 am
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It's not always poor scouting. Players develop in unpredictable
ways and a youngster who projects to be a career minor leaguer
can change in surprising ways physically and mentally.
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