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#Post#: 42003--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: davep Date: November 8, 2011, 3:06 pm
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"That way if he was a problem in the clubhouse or did not
perform on the field they could release him without absorbing a
major financial blow. "
If the Cubs are going to eat the contract if Zambrano acts up at
the new club, why not just keep him, and eat the contract if he
acts up with his old club.
If the new management get's rid of Zambrano just to get rid of
him, they are no smarter than the old management. Zambrano has
been a successful pitcher, and his value has certainly surpassed
any "chemistry" problems. He isn't worth 18 million per year,
but if they have to eat, say 13 million just to get rid of him,
they certainly won't bet a more valuable pitcher to replace him
for 5 million.
Just keep him, and let his manager earn his money.
#Post#: 42007--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: brjones Date: November 8, 2011, 3:10 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=62.msg42003#msg42003
date=1320786415]
He isn't worth 18 million per year, but if they have to eat, say
13 million just to get rid of him, they certainly won't bet a
more valuable pitcher to replace him for 5 million.
[/quote]
If he pitches how he did in 2011, I'm not sure that's true.
#Post#: 42013--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: CurtOne Date: November 8, 2011, 3:17 pm
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[quote author=davep link=topic=62.msg42003#msg42003
date=1320786415]
"That way if he was a problem in the clubhouse or did not
perform on the field they could release him without absorbing a
major financial blow. "
If the Cubs are going to eat the contract if Zambrano acts up at
the new club, why not just keep him, and eat the contract if he
acts up with his old club.
If the new management get's rid of Zambrano just to get rid of
him, they are no smarter than the old management. Zambrano has
been a successful pitcher, and his value has certainly surpassed
any "chemistry" problems. He isn't worth 18 million per year,
but if they have to eat, say 13 million just to get rid of him,
they certainly won't bet a more valuable pitcher to replace him
for 5 million.
Just keep him, and let his manager earn his money.
[/quote]
I'll repeat what I said a while back. As an administrator I
have NEVER regretted giving a student a second chance. I have
ALWAYS regretted giving a student a third chance.
He who ignores history is doomed to repeat it.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a
different result.
Or having Dutch genes.
#Post#: 42024--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: davep Date: November 8, 2011, 3:57 pm
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[quote author=brjones link=topic=62.msg42007#msg42007
date=1320786606]
If he pitches how he did in 2011, I'm not sure that's true.
[/quote]
No one on the staff won more than a single game more than
Zambrano did. And he had an ERA about equal to Dempster, who
will be on the team next year.
#Post#: 42027--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: davep Date: November 8, 2011, 4:02 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=62.msg42013#msg42013
date=1320787038]
I'll repeat what I said a while back. As an administrator I
have NEVER regretted giving a student a second chance. I have
ALWAYS regretted giving a student a third chance.
He who ignores history is doomed to repeat it.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a
different result.
Or having Dutch genes.
[/quote]
Would you expel a student that was late a third time?
It isn't like Zambrano killed a team member, or voted for Obama.
He had an adolescent fit after ONE game during the year, and
said some stupid things. he can do that once a year forever,
and still be a valuable pitcher. It is extremely unlikely that
the Cubs will have 5 starting pitchers next year that will
outperform Zambrano.
Curt seems to be extremely concerned with a Dutchman's jeans.
#Post#: 42033--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: brjones Date: November 8, 2011, 4:23 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=davep link=topic=62.msg42024#msg42024
date=1320789473]
No one on the staff won more than a single game more than
Zambrano did. And he had an ERA about equal to Dempster, who
will be on the team next year.
[/quote]
Pitching wins are meaningless. All you have to do is look at
Matt Garza's win total compared to anyone else on this team, and
that becomes clear.
All Dempster's peripherals (K%, BB%, HR%) were right in line
with where he had been the last several years. According to
Fangraphs, his fielding independent stats (FIP and xFIP) were
virtually identical to 2009 and 2010, and just a little worse
than 2008. After his awful April, the results matched the
peripherals too. He threw 200 innings. He was about the same
pitcher he has been since 2009, but with terrible luck for the
first month of the season.
In contrast, Zambrano's K% cratered. His HR% skyrocketed. He
hasn't thrown 200 innings in a season since 2007, so I think
it's safe to say his days as a real innings eater are over. To
his credit, his BB% dropped. And his FIP and xFIP both showed
him to be a little unlucky (though not nearly as unlucky as
Dempster). But there were definitely some warning signs in his
peripherals that he should have struggled.
There's no upside to Zambrano anymore. He's a lame duck
mid-rotation starter if everything goes right, but more likely a
back end guy who may erupt at any time. You can find several
back end starters on the market for $5 million or so who haven't
been suspended by their own team 2 years in a row. It's time to
move on. And I'm saying this as someone who has been one of the
few consistent Zambrano supporters on this board for the last
3-4 years.
#Post#: 42035--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: CurtOne Date: November 8, 2011, 4:24 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
"Would you expel a student that was late a third time?"
Oh, good grief. I'm talking about an offense that would
normally lead to suspension or expulsion. I've given second
chances when, perhaps, I should have expelled someone. Third
chances are too many.
He beat up his own catcher. He showed up teammates on the
field. He threw one temper tantrum after another in the dugout.
He murdered several Gatorade machines in cold gatorade. He
walked out on his team. There are class organizations that
wouldn't have tolerated one of those events, much less several.
#Post#: 42037--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: Deeg Date: November 8, 2011, 4:28 pm
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Ask Michael Barrett how trivial Zambrano's tantrums have been.
#Post#: 42043--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: davep Date: November 8, 2011, 4:44 pm
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Teams that get rid of good players because of "temper tantrums"
don't do very well over the long run. And Gatorade machines are
rather cheap. He walked out on his team, as, I remember, did
Sandberg a couple of times.
I don't know what you believe are class organizations, but the
old time Yankees, the St Louis Gas House Gang and the Oakland As
had much more turmoil in their clubhouses, and still played at a
rather high level.
Dennis Rodman created much more controversy with the Bulls than
Zambrano did with the Cubs, and yet added much to the team.
I would expect a little league team to refuse to deal with this
type of behavior. A major league franchaise has to be
reasonable.
#Post#: 42044--------------------------------------------------
Re: Hot Stove 2011
By: davep Date: November 8, 2011, 4:46 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Pitching wins may be meaningless over one season, but hardly
over a long career. How many starting pitchers that have been
in the league more than 5 years have a higher won/loss
percentage than Zambrano?
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