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#Post#: 462161--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: craig Date: October 21, 2022, 1:55 pm
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I'm open to anything. I kinda hate rehashing the 2016 success,
but they had successful conversions on all kinds of talent
acquisition.
* The big FA splurges with Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Lackey (and
later Hamels and Darvish).
* The less pricey FA pickup with Jason Hammel, who provided
solid 170 and 166 good innings in 2015 and 2016 (3.7 and 3.8
ERA's).
* Rizzo was obviously a prospect-for-prospect trade. That was a
pure baseball trade, nothing $$-related at all.
* Arrieta the high-ceiling-wildman take-a-shot who turned out
wildly good.
* Hendricks, the low-ceiling-soft-tosser who turned out
shockingly good.
* Fowler, kind of a mixture of trade/salary-pickup and then
surprise FA re-sign. (I often think of that offseason as
Heyward-Zo-Lackey.
* Hector Rondon via Rule 5, he was terrific in 2015 (30 saves,
1.0 WHIP, 1.7 ERA)
* Chris Coghlan was a +115 OPS+ guy in 2015, he was huge regular
contributor during the second-half surge. Scrap-heap
reclamation.
So just a beautiful variety of talent-acquisition approaches
taken, and a bunch of them turned out really good, at least for
a while, and particularly so during the 2015 breakout leading
into the 2016 magic. Obviously they made some other efforts
too, that didn't always work great. (Mike Olt, Ian Stewart...).
But they hit on a lot of the pickups. Whatever Hoyer and
Hawkins do, they've got to click on a bunch of the moves they
make.
If they were to do some prospect-for-prospect, and they picked
up a 3B prospect who turned into a good player, that would be
super cool.
#Post#: 462162--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: JeffH Date: October 21, 2022, 1:57 pm
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tico, I've never seen anything to suggest that Kelenic can't be
a long term CF.
JR, in Kelenic's defense, his K rates are bad, but not
"overmatched" by modern day standards. His biggest problem is
that he's just not hitting the ball hard.
#Post#: 462163--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: craig Date: October 21, 2022, 1:59 pm
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[quote author=JR link=topic=612.msg462159#msg462159
date=1666375548]
Kelenic sounds like a younger Clint Frazier to me.
Seriously it is amazing how a guy like Kelenic can seem so
promising in the minors, come up to the majors and be a
completely overmatched whiff machine. By the way modern
baseball hitting philosophies and approaches stink.[/quote]
I admit some fears for Brennen and Canario along these lines.
Internally, I wonder which the Cubs believe in more strongly?
*IF* they had some trade for a guy they really believed in, but
they had to include Brennen or Canario to get that guy, I wonder
which one they'd be more willing to send?
#Post#: 462164--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 21, 2022, 2:00 pm
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Fangraphs has 45 ratings on both his fielding and arm, and his
defensive metrics at the major league level are inconclusive, at
best. That's why I ask. If he could be counted on for at least
an average CF, I'd be very interested.
#Post#: 462165--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: JeffH Date: October 21, 2022, 2:09 pm
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The thing about Clint Frazier is that he was never really that
great in the minor leagues.
#Post#: 462166--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: guest405 Date: October 21, 2022, 2:27 pm
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I'd trade Davis before Canario.
#Post#: 462167--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 21, 2022, 2:48 pm
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Seems like most expect Contreras to decline QO. Also, Senga
contract expectations seem closer to $15M/yr than $20. With
these things in mind, revamping my offseason wish list. FA adds
in bold.
C: Gomes - $6.5M
<b>1B: Abreu - $18M</b>
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
<b>SS: Correa - $35M</b>
LF: Happ - $10.6M
<b>CF: Nimmo - $20M</b>
RF: Suzuki - $17M
BN: Wisdom - $800K
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K
SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
<b>SP: Senga - $15M
SP: Smyly - $10M</b>
<b>RP: Robertson-type - $10M
RP: Givens-type - $5M</b>
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K
Brings payroll to $200.45M, about in line with 2022 Braves, and
still less than 2022 White Sox.
Assume Abreu is a 1+1 or 2 year deal. If Mervis emerges at the
MLB level, he's not blocked, and there will be 1B/DH AB's for
him and Abreu to share, if needed.
If Hoerner and/or Morel regress, the presence of Wisdom, Bote,
Madrigal, and McKinstry provide a ton of flexibility.
At SS, we've got the money to get the best, so go sign Correa.
CBJ gets their superstar.
Taken altogether, that IF defense rivals the 2016 crew while
offering league-average-or-better offense at every position,
with ample depth to cover injury/underperformance.
For OF, none of the prospects will be ready to start at the ML
level in 2023, and the trio of Happ, Nimmo, and Suzuki should
provide excellent defense and well-rounded offensive skills. If
all 3 stay healthy and productive, Davis missed a lot of time in
2022 and wouldn't hurt for more AAA AB's. Neither would Canario.
In a best case scenario where everyone is healthy and the
prospects all hatch, Happ gets a QO next winter and walks, and
the Cubs figure out how to balance OF AB's between Davis,
Canario, Nimmo, Suzuki. It's a problem I'd love to have.
For the rotation, yes, there are bigger names out there than
Senga and Smyly, but it seems all the Verlander/DeGrom types are
likely to resign with their current teams. I'd certainly be open
to the idea of reallocating the Nimmo $$$ to Rodon, if someone
can make a compelling argument that results in a better 2023
team. However you put the pieces together here, I think the Cubs
would have a very capable rotation, with enough depth and BP
quality to maximize the group of mostly #3 SP-types.
#Post#: 462168--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: JeffH Date: October 21, 2022, 2:55 pm
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Not bad, but forget Smyly and Nimmo and get Bogaerts instead.
#Post#: 462169--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 21, 2022, 3:03 pm
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What would your rotation be, Jeff? Who takes Smyly's spot?
#Post#: 462170--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: CUBluejays Date: October 21, 2022, 3:06 pm
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I'd swap out Nimmo for a short term CF, and that would be a
fantastic off season for me.
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