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#Post#: 462108--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 20, 2022, 12:30 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> So if I'm understanding, then stacking seasons above lux line
has no impact on draft picks, only on financial tax levels.
Yes?
> -Hoyer could go $39 over lux every remaining CBA season, and
the only consequence would be financial, no draft factor?
> -And the 10-back draft factor doesn't matter whether it's 1st,
2nd, or 3rd year over the lux line.
>
> I don't think Hoyer is going to go $40 over the lux line this
winter, so non-factor.
>
> Under old CBA, it seemed like even Yankees tried to avoid the
triple-lux, and would try to restart the lux count. Are the
penalties less now, and triple-luxing will be routine instead of
exceptional? I ask because if triple-lux is still a big deal,
Hoyer may prioritize staying under the line this year to defer
approach of triple-lux?
>
--- End Quote ---
It had more to do with MLB’s revenue sharing. Teams that were
repeat offenders had to pay a tax on big market teams that would
have gotten revenue sharing but had to refund it (White Sox,
Blue Jays, A’s). It was around $100 million that was refunded.
The A’s are revenue sharing recipients again so that decreases
the amount a lot and I’m not sure it is even still in the CBA
about repea offenders getting taxed.
HTML https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax
Here is the penalties.
For $19 million over it is over $5 million dollar difference
between year 1 and 3.
For $39 million over it is over $10 million dollar difference
between year 1 and 3
Now the Steve Cohen tax has bite, but the difference for a
repeat offender is still small. If you were $80 million over the
last $20 million would cost and addition $16 million in year 1
and $22 million in year 3.
#Post#: 462136--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: ticohans
Date: October 20, 2022, 4:53 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> A difference is that we don't already have guys stepping
towards arbitration. Once Bryant and the young guys hit
arbitration, the inflation path was severe even without adding
new talent. Right now, it seems like other than Hoerner, there
aren't any imminent arbitration-inflation guys? Keegan and
steele, soon enough I guess, IF they remain good. But if cats
like Mervis and Canario and PCA and Wicks do become part of the
next good team, there remains a 3-year window before those kinds
of guys even start the arb spiral.
>
--- End Quote ---
This is a big part of why I'm so adamant on spending
significantly this winter.
Further, not only are we going to have very little arb inflation
over the next few years, but as I've mentioned previously, we
continue to see big contracts cycle off the books the next two
years.
While frustrated with how Ricketts has controlled spending the
past few years, like others on the board, I'm willing to give
the ownership the benefit of the doubt this winter.
But I need to see ~$90M added to the current payroll to feel
like ownership is making good on its word.
#Post#: 462138--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: October 20, 2022, 5:48 pm
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tico, I agree with your analysis. Your ~$90 would leave them
~$10 below lux; the $75-90 Jeff has suggested could leave $15-25
sub-lux. With Heyward and Hendricks $35 coming off, there could
still be solid spending space entering 2024 and beyond.
#Post#: 462140--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 20, 2022, 7:03 pm
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Would be helpful if Hoyer could pull off a major trade to get
impact or significant guy instead of having to rely entirely on
FA market.
But, hard to see how Cubs match up from the major league roster.
Happ only a year away from free agency, which reduces his trade
value; doesn’t seem to make sense to trade Hoerner or Steele,
etc. Doesn’t seem like Morel or Velazquez would get you much in
return.
Would love to get, say, Pablo Lopez, but Marlins had a huge ask
for Lopez at trade deadline—insisting on Gleyber AND Oswaldo
Peraza from Yankees. So, hard to see anything like that.
Wouldn’t shock me if maybe Cubs put together a package of
prospects for the right guy, especially as that might help with
the 40-man roster crunch. Presumably, Hoyer will be open to a
variety of ways to get better in 2023.
#Post#: 462146--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: JeffH
Date: October 21, 2022, 7:16 am
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Maybe an opportunity to trade for Kelenic with the Mariners?
He's been a disappointment in the majors so far, but he has the
pedigree. He's lost the CF job to Rodriguez.
#Post#: 462150--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: guest405
Date: October 21, 2022, 7:35 am
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The path to us being good again soon is an easy one and its
paved in green.
Dont trade away the prospects we've accumulated.
Just fill our holes via free agency.
We're the Cubs not the Royals.
People want to play here.
And BTW...
Bring back Rizzo.
#Post#: 462157--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 21, 2022, 12:46 pm
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Dusty for Cardinals GM
#Post#: 462158--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: ticohans
Date: October 21, 2022, 12:54 pm
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--- Quote from: JeffH link ---
>
> Maybe an opportunity to trade for Kelenic with the Mariners?
He's been a disappointment in the majors so far, but he has the
pedigree. He's lost the CF job to Rodriguez.
>
--- End Quote ---
I like the idea, and that Kelenic is a lefty, but can he
actually play the position? Would be hesitant to commit serious
prospect resources to the trade if he's just going to need to
move off the role.
#Post#: 462159--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: JR
Date: October 21, 2022, 1:05 pm
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Kelenic sounds like a younger Clint Frazier to me.
Seriously it is amazing how a guy like Kelenic can seem so
promising in the minors, come up to the majors and be a
completely overmatched whiff machine. By the way modern
baseball hitting philosophies and approaches stink.
#Post#: 462160--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: ticohans
Date: October 21, 2022, 1:25 pm
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HTML https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-admire-some-of-the-strongest-arms-in-baseball-infield-edition/
Fun article on best infield arms, including one of our own, and
one of our top FA acquisition targets...
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