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#Post#: 462078--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: JeffH
Date: October 19, 2022, 1:05 pm
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Further calculations reveal that the Cubs will be able to add
just a shade over $100 million to the 2023 payroll (AAV basis)
without hitting the luxury tax threshold.
#Post#: 462092--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: October 19, 2022, 5:10 pm
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When do draft penalties kick in for going over lux?
#Post#: 462097--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: JeffH
Date: October 19, 2022, 7:09 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> When do draft penalties kick in for going over lux?
>
--- End Quote ---
When you go $40 million over the threshold.
#Post#: 462098--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: October 19, 2022, 7:23 pm
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Has anyone ever lost draft choices because of going over the
threshold?
#Post#: 462099--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: guest405
Date: October 19, 2022, 7:35 pm
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HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/10/19/now-a-report-out-of-japan-is-connecting-the-chicago-cubs-to-kodai-senga/
#Post#: 462100--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 19, 2022, 8:55 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Has anyone ever lost draft choices because of going over the
threshold?
>
--- End Quote ---
The penalty is not a “lost” draft pick.
Penalty is moving back 10 places in first round (unless pick is
1-6, in which case move back with 2nd pick)
In 2022 draft, Dodgers moved back to #40 from #30.
Looks like Mets, Dodgers, Yankees all moving back 10 spots in
2023 draft.
#Post#: 462101--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: October 19, 2022, 9:26 pm
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So if I'm understanding, then stacking seasons above lux line
has no impact on draft picks, only on financial tax levels.
Yes?
-Hoyer could go $39 over lux every remaining CBA season, and the
only consequence would be financial, no draft factor?
-And the 10-back draft factor doesn't matter whether it's 1st,
2nd, or 3rd year over the lux line.
I don't think Hoyer is going to go $40 over the lux line this
winter, so non-factor.
Under old CBA, it seemed like even Yankees tried to avoid the
triple-lux, and would try to restart the lux count. Are the
penalties less now, and triple-luxing will be routine instead of
exceptional? I ask because if triple-lux is still a big deal,
Hoyer may prioritize staying under the line this year to defer
approach of triple-lux?
#Post#: 462102--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: October 19, 2022, 9:45 pm
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I do assume that long-term spending capacity has to factor in.
tico and deeg reason that we have resources to go huge. But it
would be nice for Hoyer to kind of guesstimate how high he'll be
able to go in 24-25-26-27. (Even if he's thinking $280 and we
think he should be spending $380, or whatever...).
After 2015, Theo identified Heyward as a Superstar and used his
resources to get him. I assume Theo knew pretty reasonably what
he'd have to work with in the ensuing years, and wasn't going to
get budgeted to $250 and $280 and $310. But he did it anyway,
accepting that he'd be tied up financially. Had he been right,
history would look diffeerent. But with Theo going all in on
superstar-Heyward, and not-young Lackey and Zobrist, he ended up
financially tied.
A difference is that we don't already have guys stepping towards
arbitration. Once Bryant and the young guys hit arbitration,
the inflation path was severe even without adding new talent.
Right now, it seems like other than Hoerner, there aren't any
imminent arbitration-inflation guys? Keegan and steele, soon
enough I guess, IF they remain good. But if cats like Mervis
and Canario and PCA and Wicks do become part of the next good
team, there remains a 3-year window before those kinds of guys
even start the arb spiral.
#Post#: 462104--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: October 19, 2022, 10:39 pm
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--- Quote from: DUSTY link ---
>
>
HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/10/19/now-a-report-out-of-japan-is-connecting-the-chicago-cubs-to-kodai-senga/
>
--- End Quote ---
I'd think Ross and the Cubs have already kinda learned a lot
about the transition involved for Suzuki, and they already have
Toy available for translation. No draft-pick lost. It just
makes so much sense. But as deeg noted, it all depends on how
the Cubs scout him.
I admit I'm something of a believer in guys with good stuff but
with control and command. I'm optimistic that Senga could be
pretty solid?
#Post#: 462106--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 19, 2022, 11:16 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I'd think Ross and the Cubs have already kinda learned a lot
about the transition involved for Suzuki, and they already have
Toy available for translation. No draft-pick lost. It just
makes so much sense. But as deeg noted, it all depends on how
the Cubs scout him.
>
> I admit I'm something of a believer in
>
--- End Quote ---
It just seems like a very Cub move. It fits their recent
history.
I don’t know what the Cubs scouting on Senga says, obviously.
Based strictly on my amateur’s eye, if the number is close to
what’s being bandied about (5/$75) I’d be in favor. I think
there’s a better chance he overperforms that than the opposite,
and even if he crashes out it’s not a franchise-crippling deal.
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