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#Post#: 462061--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: JeffH Date: October 18, 2022, 7:06 pm
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[quote author=Deeg link=topic=612.msg462056#msg462056
date=1666136537]
Speaking of, just for gits and shiggles, let’s assume the Angels
actually do trade Ohtani. What, realistically, would you offer
for him as a one-year rental?
My personal opinion would be, nothing. I’d wait and hope he
makes it to FA at which point I think it’d be almost impossible
to overpay for him, given both his ridiculous value on the field
and the revenue his presence generates for the club. But if you
were going to do it, who would you be willing to give up?
[/quote]
Ohtani strikes me as one of the few players who might sign an
extension with a team that trades for him, assuming he has a
good experience and believes in the organization's commitment to
winning (no jokes, please).
An outfielder, a shortstop, a starting pitcher, and a reliever.
Davis/Alcantara/Canario/Caissie, Hernandez/Howard/Made,
Brown/Kilian/Devers, Leeper/Leigh/Correa/Sanders
#Post#: 462062--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: JeffH Date: October 18, 2022, 7:09 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=612.msg462058#msg462058
date=1666136867]
Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024. He may opt out, but I'd not
assume so.
If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and
productive 2023 season.
[/quote]
I think Stroman will try to use the opt out to get an extra year
tacked on (2025, his age 34 season).
#Post#: 462063--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: CUBluejays Date: October 18, 2022, 7:20 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=612.msg462048#msg462048
date=1666126191]
Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up
WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?
[/quote]
Super science. Honestly if you look at the ZIPS projections from
last year the Dodgers and Braves were the only National League
teams with more than 90 wins. The Cardinals had an 88 game
projection and the Phillies had 83. I think that team would
fall somewhere in that range. That team could be above 90 wins,
but it also could struggle.
I listened to the CHGO Cubs podcast with Brendan and Corey and
they were talking about Jed on the Score. Jed talked about
reducing variance in the outcomes games. Basically you are
talented teams that can blow out teams and reduce 1 run games.
Trying to get to that team in one off-season is going to be near
impossible so the error range is going to be large for the Cubs.
The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4,
Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3
(in 26 IP).
That is what the Cubs need to build, not a team with a bunch of
solid players. You need some stars and then surround them with
really good players.
When I look at the farm Alcantara and maybe PCA OR Davis if they
hit their 1% projection could be the stars. Without drafting
near the top of the draft, the Cubs haven’t shown the ability to
get a star later. That leaves IFA and even if the Cubs are
signing Wander Franco that is 3 years away. It leaves free
agency as the only viable option for getting a star.
Judge scares me so that really leaves Soto and Ohtani as a
possible target. Having a clean finachial sheet is the only way
that happens and allows you fill holes on the team that
prospects don’t fill.
#Post#: 462064--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 7:39 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=612.msg462063#msg462063
date=1666138828]
The 2016 Cubs had
Bryant 7.9, Rizzo 4.9, Fowler 4.1, Russell 3.6, Zobrist 3.4,
Baez 2.7, Willson 2.5.
Lester 4.2, Hendricks 4.2, Arrieta 3.5, Lackey 2.9, Chapman 1.3
(in 26 IP).
[/quote]
The only individual contribution outlier from my 2023 proposed
roster vs the team leaders you've posted is Bryant at 7.9 WAR.
If our SS acquisition has a good year, he comes pretty close to
that number, most likely. I don't see the compositions as being
enormously different.
#Post#: 462065--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 7:42 pm
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Just read that 2023 lux tax threshold is $233M. That's $3M less
than my proposed team budget :)
#Post#: 462066--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: craig Date: October 18, 2022, 8:51 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the
superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way?
#Post#: 462067--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: Reb Date: October 18, 2022, 9:11 pm
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[quote author=ticohans link=topic=612.msg462065#msg462065
date=1666140167]
Just read that 2023 lux tax threshold is $233M. That's $3M less
than my proposed team budget :)
[/quote]
CBT tax base also includes player benefits and Cubs share of $50
M pre-arb bonus pool.
That totals about $18.
So, a $230 AAV payroll is $248 CBT payroll.
#Post#: 462068--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: Deeg Date: October 18, 2022, 9:51 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=612.msg462066#msg462066
date=1666144300]
Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the
superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way?
[/quote]
If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s
the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they
won’t have the budget.
Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win
championships. Look at the surviving teams. Look at
objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers.
Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.
#Post#: 462075--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: davep Date: October 19, 2022, 8:59 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Deeg link=topic=612.msg462068#msg462068
date=1666147865]
If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s
the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they
won’t have the budget.
Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win
championships. Look at the surviving teams. Look at
objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers.
Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.
[/quote]
How many stars are currently playing in baseball?
#Post#: 462076--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: CUBluejays Date: October 19, 2022, 10:36 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=ticohans link=topic=612.msg462064#msg462064
date=1666139954]
The only individual contribution outlier from my 2023 proposed
roster vs the team leaders you've posted is Bryant at 7.9 WAR.
If our SS acquisition has a good year, he comes pretty close to
that number, most likely. I don't see the compositions as being
enormously different.
[/quote]
The Cubs made the NLCS the 3 years Bryant was above 7 WAR. They
haven't since he stopped.
[quote author=craig link=topic=612.msg462066#msg462066
date=1666144300]
Blue, I suspect Hoyer and Hawkins may think that while the
superstar way is a good way, that perhaps it's not the only way?
[/quote]
Hoyer has talked about how they don't have a Bryant in the
system and the current farm isn't what the farm was in 2014.
[quote author=Deeg link=topic=612.msg462068#msg462068
date=1666147865]
If they go another route it won’t be because they believe it’s
the best way to succeed, but because they’ve been told they
won’t have the budget.
Stars, surrounded by judiciously chosen role players, win
championships. Look at the surviving teams. Look at
objectively the best team in baseball for years, the Dodgers.
Winning without stars is strictly a unicorn.
[/quote]
Agree with second part. The first part is their are only really
2 stars that are possibly coming up that make sense. Ohtani and
Soto. They could just not get them.
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