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#Post#: 463641--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: November 19, 2022, 12:44 pm
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Per fangraphs, Candelario seems to be not bad defensively at 3B.
He was a .273 OBP guy last year, so almost as bad an auto-outer
as Bellinger, and worse than Wisdom.
I admit I'm kinda leery of assembling auto-out guys plural.
Hitting in Wrigley April is hard for everybody, so for guys who
are auto-outs to start with, I think debuting in Wrigley April
is risky. Both an invitation for a guy to have a .150-OBP in
April and lose all of their confidence; and an invitation for
Ross to stick with an auto-out for way too long, under the
"nobody-hits-in-April, I won't pull the plug till end-of-May"
logic. Having a guy like that is one thing; but if you start to
collect a volume of them (Wisdom, Candelario, and Bellinger?),
I'm a little nervous!
But yeah, good-version Candelario could be way better than
bad-version-Wisdom, given that Wisdom is himself the risky kind
of guy who could pretty easily drop 50 points off his BA/OBP and
100 points off his slugging in any given season.
#Post#: 463643--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 19, 2022, 6:08 pm
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--- Quote from: CurtOne link ---
>
> Deeg, most Cub GM's in the past 25 years have loved LIAB's.
Of all the LIAB's out there, Bellinger is the most appealing to
me. One LIAB, one major league trade, one top FA acquisition.
Bring up a couple of kids, and let's go.
>
--- End Quote ---
The problem comes if we sign him as our first option in CF,
which is what seems most likely. It's not like Bellinger is
going to sign some minor league deal - it's probably going to
take $8-10 million, and maybe two years. A LiAB as insurance is
one thing - signing one instead of bringing in a relative sure
thing is something else. Not all bad contracts are long-term.
But if it's him or Kiermayer? Sure, the better of two bad
options.
Of all the non-tenders our there Candelario makes the most sense
for the Cubs, and seems the most likely to be a major-league
average or better regular next season.
#Post#: 463649--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 19, 2022, 9:11 pm
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What options are there really for CF?
Free Agency you have Nimmo and Judge as better players, but the
Cubs don’t seem interested. Are you going to trade prospects for
a CF? Bellinger gives some lefty power and you can platoon him
Morel.
You could pay Bellinger $20 million for 1 year and it wouldn’t
limit anything the Cubs do this year.
#Post#: 463651--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 19, 2022, 9:18 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> What options are there really for CF?
>
> Free Agency you have Nimmo and Judge as better players, but
the Cubs don’t seem interested. Are you going to trade prospects
for a CF? Bellinger gives some lefty power and you can platoon
him Morel.
>
> You could pay Bellinger $20 million for 1 year and it wouldn’t
limit anything the Cubs do this year.
>
--- End Quote ---
You can't just say "the Cubs don't seem interested" and leave
that lying there like a dead skunk in the middle of the road.
They should be interested in Nimmo.
I'd certainly see if you could get somebody like Fletcher for
Wisdom and a B prospect, then sign Candelario for 3B. No,
Fletcher isn's a sure thing either by any means, but I think
he's likely to outproduce Bellinger or (Goc help us) Keirmaier.
#Post#: 463652--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: November 19, 2022, 9:48 pm
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I don't think that anyone, especially the Cubs, would pay
Bellinger 20 million for one year. The Dodgers. who know him
best, are not interest at a much lower price. As far as the
Cubs are concerned, even if he performed far beyond reasonable
expectations, he would leave the team before he actually could
have a positive impact.
#Post#: 463653--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: JeffH
Date: November 20, 2022, 8:46 am
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> I don't think that anyone, especially the Cubs, would pay
Bellinger 20 million for one year. The Dodgers. who know him
best, are not interest at a much lower price. As far as the
Cubs are concerned, even if he performed far beyond reasonable
expectations, he would leave the team before he actually could
have a positive impact.
>
--- End Quote ---
Winning games is always a positive.
#Post#: 463655--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: November 20, 2022, 10:35 am
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Winning more is always a positive. But winning pennants and
World Series is much more of a positive.
When you have a bad team, spending money to become a short term
mediocre team is pretty much wasted unless it also gives long
term value.
There is no way that the Cubs are going to spend enough money
this winter to become a top tier team. They made a move in the
right direction last winter when they signed Stroman and Suzuki.
It appears that they will advance that plan this winter with a
couple more long term free agent signings. If this goes well,
and they have more reliable information on what they can expect
from their farm system, and what short term moves can propel
them to the top tier, that is the time to spend big money on the
short term.
In the meantime, the money is better spent on mid-range free
agents such as Candelario or Abreu. Bellinger also fits into
that catagory, if you are talking 8 - 10 million per year, but
no poorly performing flier is worth 20 million per year, just on
spec.
#Post#: 463656--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: JeffH
Date: November 20, 2022, 11:30 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
> When you have a bad team, spending money to become a short
term mediocre team is pretty much wasted unless it also gives
long term value.
--- End Quote ---
I think you are mostly talking about "on the roster" value. My
comment was directed more toward the nebulous "learning how to
win". Winning is a habit and so is losing. Winning is good for
the kids, both in the minor leagues and with the big club.
#Post#: 463660--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: November 20, 2022, 12:26 pm
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Winning is indeed a habit, for teams that have the talent to do
so. That is why I advocate building a dynasty rather than a
current team. Eptein started out talking that way, and then
destroyed the team by short term efforts to take advantage of
the "window". I would prefer a longer view.
#Post#: 463672--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: November 20, 2022, 3:35 pm
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Dave, reference to Bellinger at $20 was hyperbole, not meant
literally. Under the perspective that the Cubs have plenty of
money and could pay Bellinger $20, who cares about the cash.
Nobody is going to pay Bellinger $20M for this season. Whatever
he gets will not be prohibitive; whether he's able to justify
whatever he gets is a kind of blind guess.
He'll need to make a big step forward to make himself into a
Patrick-Wisdom level player offensively. Some people think he
might do that, but who knows? And some people think he might
improve **much** more than that. Who knows? But for those who
think he might possibly hypothetically have those kinds of
improvements, he's a LIAB candidate.
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