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#Post#: 462045--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 3:07 pm
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[quote author=craig link=topic=612.msg462044#msg462044
date=1666122560]
In those hypothetical cases, should Hoyer just offer $280 and
overpay by so very much that Bogaerts or Turner can't say no?
[/quote]
Yes, absolutely. The Cubs have the resources, flexibility, and
depth of talent to overpay if that's what it takes. This is one
of the advantages of being a big market team, and "overpaying"
should not be viewed as an automatic negative.
[quote author=craig link=topic=612.msg462044#msg462044
date=1666122560]
2. Pitchers? What if Rodon doesn't want to come here for
whatever reason? Who knows? Or if the Cub scouts don't really
see Senga as being that good?
[/quote]
If we don't pick up either Rodon or Senga, the pitching question
does get tougher, to be sure. I'd be happy to sign any of
DeGrom, Verlander, or Kershaw to a short term deal, but think
it's likely all 3 stay with their current teams on new deals.
Bassitt and Anderson are two intriguing options that lack the
headliner stuff of a Rodon, but would still legitimately profile
as +3WAR SP pickups. So it's not Rodon, Senga, or bust, but the
quality of options does begin to fall apart after the
Bassitt/Anderson tier. LIAB injury pickups include Severino,
Thor, Eovaldi, Heaney, etc.
[quote author=craig link=topic=612.msg462044#msg462044
date=1666122560]
There really aren't all THAT many ideal targets at the positions
we need most. 2B or 3B, like nobody, right?
[/quote]
Given the positional flexibility of Wisdom, Hoerner, and Morel,
if the Cubs don't land one of the Big 4, they could absolutely
sign someone in the Abreu-Rizzo-Mancini-Bell 1B class and
reshuffle players around the diamond as necessary. Obviously
preferable to sign one of the Big 4 SS and go from there, but
the Cubs still have options if they don't.
#Post#: 462047--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: CUBluejays Date: October 18, 2022, 3:26 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=ticohans link=topic=612.msg462042#msg462042
date=1666121675]
If I remember correctly, I believe a 0 WAR team would average
about 47 wins. Add my projected 47 WAR on top of that, and
you're looking at 94 wins, if my projections are reasonable.
It's certainly an extremely competitive roster, especially in
the NL Central.
Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there
is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward,
$23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's
$76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major
contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and
Senga.
Finally, I'd suggest any of the Big 4 qualify as "superstar,"
with Swanson admittedly lagging the other 3.
[/quote]
I wouldn't suggest that any of the 3 SS at the top are
superstars adding $30 million to the future payroll for multiple
years won't limit the ability to add an acutal superstar or at
least another near SS.
Yes there would be payroll coming off, but you have to replace
them (except for Heyward), so it isn't really a net savings.
Maybe you can replace Happ with a prospect and that gets you
some extra money. It is really hard to just spend your way to a
good team.
I don't think you can just add up projected WAR to get a
projection. That team, just ball parking it would be right
around the Cardinals and somwhere between 84-88 projected wins.
It is a good team, getting to the next level is a lot harder
with the 4 guys signed long termed and Suzuki taking up a big
chunk.
Instead
C: Gomes/Hedges
1B: Abreu
2B: Hoerner
SS: Corerra
3B: Widom/McInstry/Morel
LF: Happ
CF: Bellinger (Grisham)/Morel
RF: Suzuki
SP: Stroman/Hendricks/Steel/Smyly/FA 1 year
RP: Britton/FA 1 year
They only long term payroll is Corerra. I wouldn't be opposed
to Senga, but I've seen him projected as more of a 3/4 vs TORP
guy. I really rather let the Cubs go bargin shopping there.
Long term payroll: $47 million. And I really don't see much of
a difference in how that team would project. The Cubs are still
spending money and the team might be viewed as an option for
Ohtani/Soto with payroll to add.
#Post#: 462048--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 3:49 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=612.msg462047#msg462047
date=1666124777]
I wouldn't suggest that any of the 3 SS at the top are
superstars adding $30 million to the future payroll for multiple
years won't limit the ability to add an acutal superstar or at
least another near SS.
[/quote]
Slight disagree, but I understand what you're saying here.
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=612.msg462047#msg462047
date=1666124777]
Yes there would be payroll coming off, but you have to replace
them (except for Heyward), so it isn't really a net savings.
Maybe you can replace Happ with a prospect and that gets you
some extra money. It is really hard to just spend your way to a
good team. [/quote]
$23M from Heyward is savings straight to the bottom line.
On replacing Stroman, I think we need to consider the rotation
as a whole. Essentially, I'm hoping that moving into the 2024
season, we can comfortably slot Steele into Stroman's spot, and
that one of Thompson, Killian, Wicks, Wesneski, etc., can be
counted on as a Steele replacement. There is absolutely real
savings opportunity here as our minor league pitching talent
evolves.
If Contreras doesn't accept the QO, there is immediate savings
at C this year. And if he does, I don't imagine the Cubs will be
looking to earmark $20M for a starter there in 2024. Either this
year or next, a good amount of this $ will fall to the bottom
line.
And if one of the Davis, Canario, PCA, etc., group isn't ready
to take over Happ's spot in 2024, that will be extremely
disappointing.
In short, I disagree - I think there are meaningful savings
opportunities with the money coming off next year.
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=612.msg462047#msg462047
date=1666124777]
I don't think you can just add up projected WAR to get a
projection. That team, just ball parking it would be right
around the Cardinals and somwhere between 84-88 projected wins.
It is a good team, getting to the next level is a lot harder
with the 4 guys signed long termed and Suzuki taking up a big
chunk.
[/quote]
Yes, it's probably a little more complicated than just adding up
WAR, but how are you "ball parking" 84-88 wins?
#Post#: 462049--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: CurtOne Date: October 18, 2022, 3:59 pm
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What if they don't want us? Great question. Lester, of course,
had a special relationship with Theo. Others? We
overpay...Heyward, for example. What do our coveted players
see? A team that came in second in most competitions, and who
didn't try too hard to keep its super stars. Or we trade them,
Yu. Our FA record is not impressive.
#Post#: 462053--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: Deeg Date: October 18, 2022, 5:48 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CurtOne link=topic=612.msg462049#msg462049
date=1666126742]
What if they don't want us? Great question. Lester, of course,
had a special relationship with Theo. Others? We
overpay...Heyward, for example. What do our coveted players
see? A team that came in second in most competitions, and who
didn't try too hard to keep its super stars. Or we trade them,
Yu. Our FA record is not impressive.
[/quote]
I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him. They’re known
here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there
doesn’t hurt. Most importantly even if they have to “overpay”
to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could
live with. On Rodon, not so much.
The question is, do they want him? Who knows what their
scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no
Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin with.
#Post#: 462056--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: Deeg Date: October 18, 2022, 6:42 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of, just for gits and shiggles, let’s assume the Angels
actually do trade Ohtani. What, realistically, would you offer
for him as a one-year rental?
My personal opinion would be, nothing. I’d wait and hope he
makes it to FA at which point I think it’d be almost impossible
to overpay for him, given both his ridiculous value on the field
and the revenue his presence generates for the club. But if you
were going to do it, who would you be willing to give up?
#Post#: 462057--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: davep Date: October 18, 2022, 6:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I think the Cubs are going to go after one of the four
shortstops, and have a reasonable chance (perhaps75%) of getting
one of them. I think they will also go after Senga or Rodon,
and have a reasonable chance (perhaps 50%) chance of getting one
of them. If they do get both positions, I highly doubt that
they will spend much money for a center fielder. Perhaps Abreu,
if they can get him for 10 - 12 million, but other than the
usual middle of the pack relievers, that is going to be it for
the winter as far as large investments are concerned. At the
trade deadline, when their needs are more firmly defined, they
might try to plug another hole.
But under no circumstances do I expect to see them bring in so
much talent this winter that they can enter the season as a top
tier competitor for the World Series.
I hope they sign Contreras to a long term contract.
#Post#: 462058--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: craig Date: October 18, 2022, 6:47 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=ticohans link=topic=612.msg462042#msg462042
date=1666121675]
...Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024,
there is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for
Heyward, $23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for
Happ. That's $76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the
only major contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki,
Nimmo, and Senga. ...[/quote]
Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024. He may opt out, but I'd not
assume so.
If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and
productive 2023 season.
#Post#: 462059--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: craig Date: October 18, 2022, 6:57 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Deeg link=topic=612.msg462053#msg462053
date=1666133322]
I think if the Cubs want Senga, they’ll get him. They’re known
here, have some history with Japanese players, Seiya being there
doesn’t hurt. Most importantly even if they have to “overpay”
to get him, an overpay on Senga is the sort of overpay PTR could
live with. On Rodon, not so much.
The question is, do they want him? Who knows what their
scouting says - other than someone like Ohtani or Yu, no
Japanese player coming over is a sure thing to begin
with.[/quote]
Agree. Don't think there is any reason why the Cubs wouldn't
have a fair chance to compete for Senga, *if* they want him.
But as you say, do they? And *if* they both want him and pay
what it take to get him, will that scouting be vindicated? Who
knows.
#Post#: 462060--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 7:01 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=612.msg462058#msg462058
date=1666136867]
Stroman has a $21M deal for 2024. He may opt out, but I'd not
assume so.
If he does, it will probably mean that he's had a healthy and
productive 2023 season.
[/quote]
$21M is essentially the value of the qualifying offer. Barring
massive injury, I think the Cubs would be glad to see Stroman
renew for a single year at a QO price, and then be eligible for
a QO the year after.
Getting multiple single-year contract options on a solid #3,
athletic pitcher, who is only 31, is a great deal of value and
flexibility for the team.
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