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#Post#: 463301--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 13, 2022, 5:07 pm
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--- Quote from: JeffH link ---
>
> Each player is strong in different areas. Which skillsets age
the best?
>
--- End Quote ---
A very pertinent question. I’d worry the most about Turner,
TBH. Not only is his baserunning a big part of his value but a
lot of his SLG is speed-driven.
#Post#: 463302--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: guest405
Date: November 13, 2022, 5:23 pm
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I'd take Turner over any of them.
#Post#: 463324--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: ben
Date: November 13, 2022, 7:22 pm
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Here's a pertinent part of The Athletic article by Mooney and
Sharma about why Hendricks is working on velo:
"In those years (2018 and 2019 - great years for Hendricks),
Hendricks averaged around 86.6 mph on his sinker, barely above
the 86.5 mph registered this past season. Since then, however,
his changeup has gotten firmer and the average gap between the
sinker and the changeup has gone from around 8 mph to 6.5. That
may seem minimal, but for a pitcher with very little margin for
error, it can be disastrous."
#Post#: 463329--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2022, 7:34 pm
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The last reports I have heard were that Hendricks has not yet
begun pitching, so perhaps the work he is doing is more along
the lines of building up his core than his arm strength.
#Post#: 463347--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 13, 2022, 10:18 pm
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For me, the years to look at closely with Hendricks are 2019
compared to 2021.
2019 was his most recent quality full season. ERA was 3.46 (and
exactly his career ERA too). Unlike all of his other good
seasons (with exception of 2015)—featured by Hendrick’s ERA
being dramatically better than his FIP—his 2019 FIP (3.61) is
close to his ERA. So, think 2019 is a good representation of
“good” Hendricks.
2020 was the shortened Covid season and 2022 was also a
shortened season for Hendricks and one where he was probably
pitching hurt when he was pitching, at least part of that
season.
So, 2021 is a good representation of “bad” Hendricks. In 2021,
he had a 4.77 ERA and similar FIP (4.89).
Thing is that Hendricks sinker and 4-seam velocity was actually
slightly HIGHER in the bad Hendricks season than the good
Hendricks season: 2021: sinker at 87.3, 4-seamer also at 87.3.
2019: sinker at 86.7 and 4-seamer at 87.2.
So, beats me how loss of velocity explains anything.
Sharma notes that change-up is faster in 2021 than 2019 (80.0 to
78.6), which is true, and manifests as less of a difference
between the change and harder stuff. This is probably a factor
of sorts but my view is that this is small potatoes compared to
loss of command overall.
Very hard to see command in the Statcast data, so think Sharma
just ignored that. It has strike zone location charts of base
hits but where Hendricks is getting hurt comparing 2019 to 2021
is slugging. His iso was .148 in 2019 but zoomed to .203 in
2021, with slugging going from .397 to .481. Don’t see how can
do an analysis of Hendricks without delving into pitch location.
Also, His 4-seam slugging went from .302 to .642 (!!) and
curveball slugging from .239 to .455. So, his 3rd and 4th best
pitches have gone from useful to poor. Think that’s something
to ponder.
For me, it’s command, command, command with Hendricks. Sure,
even a guy throwing 96 can be helped going up to 99, so ditto
for Hendricks if he can go up a tick or two. But, he has to put
the ball where he wants much more consistently to be the “good”
Hendricks. Think that is way more important than a slight
improvement in velocity or a bit better separation between
change-up and harder stuff.
#Post#: 463348--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: November 13, 2022, 11:03 pm
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Thanks for those thoughts, reb. I think you're pretty on point,
that it's been more about location of stuff rather than
movement/velocity/shape.
I do wonder, though as regards the change? Seemed like in
Hendricks prime, his change was a killer pitch, it was really,
really good. As you've noted, reb, a pitcher really likes to
have a signature, plus, killer pitch. What I'm wondering, is
whether Hendricks's change hasn't been as much of a killer in
the recent bad years? Is there a way to evaluate and quantify
that? If so I'm not sure why, or how to remediate.
#Post#: 463352--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 14, 2022, 12:36 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> Thanks for those thoughts, reb. I think you're pretty on
point, that it's been more about location of stuff rather than
movement/velocity/shape.
>
> I do wonder, though as regards the change? Seemed like in
Hendricks prime, his change was a killer pitch, it was really,
really good. As you've noted, reb, a pitcher really likes to
have a signature, plus, killer pitch. What I'm wondering, is
whether Hendricks's change hasn't been as much of a killer in
the recent bad years? Is there a way to evaluate and quantify
that? If so I'm not sure why, or how to remediate.
>
--- End Quote ---
There’s a Runs Above Average stat which measures pitch value,
and fwiw it confirms the change was Hendricks’ best pitch during
his best seasons, and has been really bad the last two. But all
of his pitches have graded out badly the last two seasons. He
was good in the COVID season throwing roughly the same velocity
on his pitches as he did in 21-22, with very different results.
#Post#: 463355--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: November 14, 2022, 12:59 am
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Linked below is Hendricks’ Statcast page.
As we can see, 2018 was the most recent season when Hendricks’
change was a “killer” pitch. In 2019–his most recent good full
season—it was a good pitch, but no longer elite. But, he still
had a nice 2019 season with his repertoire of four pitches.
Don’t think it is now realistic that Hendricks will get back an
elite change-up. What he needs is better command of his overall
repertoire.
As I noted earlier, his curve—which we don’t think much
about—has been ineffective during his decline. Ditto for the
4-seamer. This has hurt him quite a bit.
I think this is all a by-product of a decline in command that is
impacting more than one pitch and more than the Sharma theory
that it is the velocity difference between sinker and change.
HTML https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-hendricks-543294?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
#Post#: 463359--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: November 14, 2022, 8:12 am
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Thanks for data on Hendricks change.
1. Totally agree, reb, that command is huge and is the biggest
issue. Bigger than tweaking the velocity of his fastball or
change. It's a given that his command needs to get better or
he's not going to be useful. Hendricks has made more mistakes
in recent years, and his mistakes are pretty mashable.
2. But assuming his command did improve significantly... The
idea I was exploring is whether re-optimizing the change should
be the priority in terms of stuff and pitch shape? If he had
one pitch that he could improve stuff-wise, might that not best
be his change, the pitch that used to make him excellent?
3. Reb, *IF* it's a given that his best pitch can never get
back to being elite, I wonder how realistic it is that he can
ever get back to being above average again? *IF* we presume
that the plus pitch that made him good will never be plus again,
that makes me pretty cautious about what his upside might be?
So, I guess I'm maybe hoping that there is still quite a bit of
upside-potential to his change, and that *if* he can
hypothetically recover *both* overall command AND a really plus
change, that he might still have a shot to be an asset rotation
guy, one that could still help a playoff contender? Rather than
being a liability guy that only a tanking team wants in its
rotation?
#Post#: 463362--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: November 14, 2022, 9:45 am
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One more post re Hendricks and the Sharma/Mooney article (link
HTML https://theathletic.com/3862765/2022/11/13/cubs-kyle-hendricks-offseason/
"The Cubs understand that relying on Hendricks to be “The
Professor” again next season would be foolish. They’re also not
ruling out a return to the form that once made him one of the
game’s most reliable pitchers. There’s an acceptance that he’s a
wild card. They’re looking at what he could give them —
potentially a lot or a little — as a bonus."
Assuming Mooney/Sharma are correct in capturing the Cubs view,
this seems wise. At the same time, it's also a very difficult
position to be in? The last two seasons, they intended to
compete as best they could with the guys they added, some of
whom were "wildcards", and they ended up being deep in the
standings by July.
Part of that being awful in the front half was sorting through
has-been vets, and losing a bunch of games before realizing the
wildcards weren't going to work.
*2021, they thought Arrieta might be a veteran who could give
them something. It took them a while to realize the answer.
Trevor Williams, Alec Mills, Zach Davies, they probably all
qualified under the "wild-card" status... Bote and Sogaard too.
While determining the wild cards weren't working you've already
lost the season.
*In 2022, Simmons and Villar and Heyward probably all qualified
as wildcards,
"can't-count-on-them-but-maybe-they'll-be-productive?" guys.
Eventually they pulled the plug, but it took a while.
So, I'm thinking this will be challenging with Hendricks. Given
the respect and tenure that he's earned, I can imagine them
giving him a pretty extended chance if he's supposedly healthy.
Camp and exhibition-game stats are short and few and not
trusted. If he gets through camp with a 4.8 ERA in his 14
innings, are they going to take his job away? If it's May 10
and he's made 5 starts at 4.8-ERA, but he then has one
5-inning-1-run start where he looks a little sharper, will that
then guarantee him another 3-4 starts?
I guess I'm kinda thinking that Ross and Hottovy are going to be
in a tough spot, and there may be some temptation to be kinda
slow to pull the plug, if it hypothetically turns out that he's
mediocre but not horrific.
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