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#Post#: 463230--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: guest405
Date: November 12, 2022, 8:25 pm
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HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/11/12/jose-abreu-is-a-priority-for-the-cubs-but-its-not-a-slam-dunk-that-they-get-him/
#Post#: 463231--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: November 12, 2022, 8:43 pm
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--- Quote from: Deeg link ---
>
> This whole business about not wanting to do 7 and 8 year
deals, in addition to meaning you have no chance to sign one of
the elite FAs, doesn't even really make sense financially.
>
> Say you're willing to go 5 or 6 years on Bogaerts, but not
willing to go 7-8 for Correa. You're paying them until the same
age, and the extra two years of Correa are in his prime. Why is
the Bogaerts deal better financially?
>
--- End Quote ---
For several reasons.
First, as we found out from the Heyward deal, when it goes
wrong, it hurts you what seems like forever.
Second, as many articles have attested, when you sign someone to
an 8 year deal, you usually only get your value back in the
first three or four years, and expect to lose value after that.
Third, deals that long almost always have opt out clauses, which
causes you to lose them if they do well, and pay for years if
they do badly. See # 1.
Fourth, The addition of one shortstop, no matter how good, is
not going to make the Cubs a top tier team in the next two
years. The top shortstop will stop being worth the money just
as you need him most.
#Post#: 463232--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 12, 2022, 8:51 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> For several reasons.
> First, as we found out from the Heyward deal, when it goes
wrong, it hurts you what seems like forever.
> Second, as many articles have attested, when you sign someone
to an 8 year deal, you usually only get your value back in the
first three or four years, and expect to lose value after that.
> Third, deals that long almost always have opt out clauses,
which causes you to lose them if they do well, and pay for years
if they do badly. See # 1.
> Fourth, The addition of one shortstop, no matter how good, is
not going to make the Cubs a top tier team in the next two
years. The top shortstop will stop being worth the money just
as you need him most.
>
--- End Quote ---
So you'd rather pay the same AAV for a guy from 30-35 than 28-35
because... Well, why exactly? He's not good enough to help you
win in the first place? You don't care about the first two
years because you're not going to win anyway?
#Post#: 463241--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2022, 9:00 am
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No. My goal is to have a dynasty that lasts more than a decade.
Which means that the long run view is more important than the
short run view when building such a dynasty. Signing a player
to a contract that can be a millstone around their neck for
years is a foolish plan. And with the randomness of baseball,
the longer the contract, the greater the liklihood of that
happening.
In the specific situation you mention, the eight years for
Correa create more risk of injury or age-decline than does a 6
year contract for Bogaerts.
The average life expectancy for a man in the United States is
currently about 76 years. However, I am 80 years old, and MY
life expectancy is 89.1 years. The same applies to baseball
life. A player at age 30 has a higher likelihood of playing
well at 36 than does a similar player at age 28. That is the
reason why it might make sense to sign 36 year old Abreu for two
years rather than a similar 30 year old player for 8 years.
#Post#: 463242--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 13, 2022, 9:30 am
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Celine is an age/health based risk. Boegarts 5-6 years would
carry the same risk as Correra’s 7-8. Correra could give you
more good years than Boegarts.
#Post#: 463243--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: JeffH
Date: November 13, 2022, 9:36 am
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Each player is strong in different areas. Which skillsets age
the best?
#Post#: 463244--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 13, 2022, 9:58 am
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Sharma is reporting Hendricks is going to do a Driveline-like
program to up his velocity.
#Post#: 463245--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: November 13, 2022, 10:37 am
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If he can get his fastball up over 100 without losing command,
it might improve his results substantially.
#Post#: 463247--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: craig
Date: November 13, 2022, 11:13 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Sharma is reporting Hendricks is going to do a Driveline-like
program to up his velocity.
>
--- End Quote ---
That is fascinating, and weird. Three thoughts:
1. Health: Health is what Hoyer had emphasized when discussing
his chances. I'd guess his arm-health must be fine if he's
going to a Driveline to boost velocity?
2. Pitch-lab: Seems curious that Hendricks thinks his career
and fastball are better optimized in some Driveline place with
Driveline coaches, rather than by Breslow and Hottovy and their
hand-picked coaches in what I assume would be a super-funded
state-of-the-art Cubs pitch-lab. Shouldn't the cubs have
top-end people and facilities for this? I thought he married a
Chicago girl; does he have a home in chicago? Or does he live
in California, so the quality of the Driveline isn't as
important as proximity to home?
3. Cool: I think it's interesting that he thinks a
velocity-boost is worth pursuing, and that there might be
something in there. Would be fun if he could improve somehow,
and become variably good again, rather than being the liability
he's been for the last couple of years.
#Post#: 463249--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 13, 2022, 11:53 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> That is fascinating, and weird. Three thoughts:
>
> 1. Health: Health is what Hoyer had emphasized when
discussing his chances. I'd guess his arm-health must be fine
if he's going to a Driveline to boost velocity?
>
> 2. Pitch-lab: Seems curious that Hendricks thinks his career
and fastball are better optimized in some Driveline place with
Driveline coaches, rather than by Breslow and Hottovy and their
hand-picked coaches in what I assume would be a super-funded
state-of-the-art Cubs pitch-lab. Shouldn't the cubs have
top-end people and facilities for this? I thought he married a
Chicago girl; does he have a home in chicago? Or does he live
in California, so the quality of the Driveline isn't as
important as proximity to home?
>
> 3. Cool: I think it's interesting that he thinks a
velocity-boost is worth pursuing, and that there might be
something in there. Would be fun if he could improve somehow,
and become variably good again, rather than being the liability
he's been for the last couple of years.
>
--- End Quote ---
1) They pushed things back to make sure he’s 100%
2) The Cubs hired a Driveline guy I think in the last couple of
years. I think this is a Cubs program vs outside program. The
Cubs have been adding velocity to minor leaguers pretty
consistently now.
3) I doubt he’s going to jump 90+, but if the can get him back
to 88-89 it would be huge. That might be too big of an ask
though.
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