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#Post#: 462030--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 12:46 pm
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Hey Craig, yes, you've landed on the correct interpretation:
there is no excuse for the 2023 Cubs - who have at least top 5
resources in the game, banked salary from 2022, play in the
terrible NL Central, and multiple serious needs that can be
addressed via FA - to spend just ~$190M in 2023.
The White Sox spent nearly $210M in 2022. I cannot envision any
valid reason for any Cub team to ever spend less than the
Southsiders.
#Post#: 462033--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 1:26 pm
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[quote author=JeffH link=topic=612.msg461990#msg461990
date=1666034653]
2023 payroll summary. All values AAV. Subject to change with
trades, of course.
Players under contract:
Seiya Suzuki $17,000,000
Yan Gomes $6,500,000
David Bote $3,000,000
Marcus Stroman $23,666,667
Kyle Hendricks $13,875,000
Jason Heyward $23,000,000
Subtotal $87,041,667
Players eligible for arbitration (mlbtraderumors.com estimates):
Ian Happ $10,600,000
Nico Hoerner $2,200,000
Nick Madrigal $1,100,000
Rowan Wick $1,500,000
Codi Heuer $800,000
Subtotal $16,200,000
Non-tenders - Rafael Ortega, Franmil Reyes, Steven Brault, Alec
Mills, Brad Wieck
Note - The arb eligible bucket could get bigger with Happ and/or
Hoerner extensions.
Players under auto-renewal control (assume seven such players on
the opening day roster at $800,000 each):
Subtotal $5,600,000
Running total = $108,841,667
That accounts for 17 of 26 roster spots.
$75-$85 million for 9 spots?
One OF, one IF, one C, two SP, two RP? Maybe one more
auto-renewal player and one veteran free agent on a minor league
deal?
[/quote]
For the sake of argument, assume Contreras accepts the QO and
adds $19.65M to the above. Here's how the 2023 roster begins to
come together:
C: Contreras - $19.65M
1B: Wisdom - $800K
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
SS:
LF: Happ - $10.6M
CF:
RF: Suzuki - $17M
BN: Yan - $6.5M
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K
(Heyward - $23M)
SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K
Including Heyward's money, that's about $130M in 2023 MLB
payroll commitments.
#Post#: 462034--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 1:38 pm
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Curious how the board feels about the likelihood of Contreras
accepting QO? Would more than double is 2022 salary, give him
the opportunity to prove out this higher level of offensive
output, and enter 2024 FA market without QO hanging around his
neck, still "just" 31 years old...
#Post#: 462036--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: CUBluejays Date: October 18, 2022, 1:52 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I think he's made it clear he wants to be somewhere where he
feels wanted, and that clearly isn't the Cubs.
#Post#: 462039--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 1:56 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=ticohans link=topic=612.msg462033#msg462033
date=1666117604]
For the sake of argument, assume Contreras accepts the QO and
adds $19.65M to the above. Here's how the 2023 roster begins to
come together:
C: Contreras - $19.65M
1B: Wisdom - $800K
2B: Hoerner - $2.2M
3B: Morel - $800K
SS:
LF: Happ - $10.6M
CF:
RF: Suzuki - $17M
BN: Yan - $6.5M
BN: Bote - $3M
BN: Madrigal - $1.1M
BN: McKinstry - $800K
BN: Higgins - $800K
(Heyward - $23M)
SP: Steele - $800K
SP: Stroman - $23.67M
SP: Hendricks - $13.88M
SP:
SP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Wick - $1.5M
RP: Heuer - $800K
RP: Sampson - $800K
RP: Thompson - $800K
RP: Alzolay - $800K
RP: Hughes - $800K
Including Heyward's money, that's about $130M in 2023 MLB
payroll commitments.
[/quote]
Bookmark $30M for SS, $25M for SP1, $20M for CF, $10M for SP2,
$10M for RP1, $5M for RP2. Would take 2023 payroll to about
$230M ($23M of which is the sunk cost of Heyward's salary). That
$230M number would have been 6th highest in 2022.
$30M at SS gets you one of the Big 4
$25M at SP1 gets you in the Senga-or-equivalent range
$20M at CF gets you Nimmo
$10M at SP2 gets you in the Smyly-or-equivalent range
$10M at RP1 gets you in the Robertson-or-equivalent range
$5M at RP2 gets you a 2022-Givens-type
#Post#: 462040--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: CUBluejays Date: October 18, 2022, 2:16 pm
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What would that team project to win?
Going forward that locks in around $92 million in payroll in SS,
Nimmo, SP, Suzuki. You still don't have a super star or legit
ace on the team. Is it a playoff team, especially in the weak
NL Central, there would be a pretty decent shot. The question
is how do you take that team and this farm system and make a
World Series contender?
I think a better approach would be SS (Corerra would be my guy),
then a bunch of 1-2 year deals. You still maintain financial
flexibility for the future and the product wouldn't be that much
worse.
#Post#: 462041--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 2:23 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Putting together some (hopefully) reasonable WAR projections
around this roster:
C: Contreras - 3 WAR
1B: Wisdom - 1.5 WAR
2B: Hoerner - 4 WAR
3B: Morel - 2 WAR
SS: Big 4 SS - 5 WAR
LF: Happ - 3 WAR
CF: Nimmo - 3 WAR
RF: Suzuki - 3 WAR
BN: Yan - 1 WAR
BN: Bote - 1 WAR
BN: Madrigal - 1 WAR
BN: McKinstry - 1 WAR
BN: Higgins - 0.5 WAR
SP: Senga - 3 WAR
SP: Steele - 3 WAR
SP: Stroman - 3 WAR
SP: Hendricks - 1.5 WAR
SP: Smyly - 1.5 WAR
RP: Robertson - 1 WAR
RP: Givens - 0.5 WAR
RP: Wick - 0.5 WAR
RP: Heuer - 0.5 WAR
RP: Sampson - 1 WAR
RP: Thompson - 1 WAR
RP: Alzolay - 1 WAR
RP: Hughes - 0.5 WAR
That results in about 47 team WAR. For context here are the 2022
team WAR leaderboards:
1) LAD - 63.5
2) HOU - 56.5
3) NYY - 54.7
4) NYM - 51.7
5) ATL - 51.5
6) TOR - 48.1
7) STL - 46.2
8 ) PHI - 44.3
9) SDP - 40.8
10) CLE - 40.5
#Post#: 462042--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 2:34 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=612.msg462040#msg462040
date=1666120608]
What would that team project to win?
Going forward that locks in around $92 million in payroll in SS,
Nimmo, SP, Suzuki. You still don't have a super star or legit
ace on the team. Is it a playoff team, especially in the weak
NL Central, there would be a pretty decent shot. The question
is how do you take that team and this farm system and make a
World Series contender?
I think a better approach would be SS (Corerra would be my guy),
then a bunch of 1-2 year deals. You still maintain financial
flexibility for the future and the product wouldn't be that much
worse.
[/quote]
If I remember correctly, I believe a 0 WAR team would average
about 47 wins. Add my projected 47 WAR on top of that, and
you're looking at 94 wins, if my projections are reasonable.
It's certainly an extremely competitive roster, especially in
the NL Central.
Regarding payroll flexibility, keep in mind that in 2024, there
is still a TON of money coming off the books: $23M for Heyward,
$23M for Stroman, $20M for Contreras, and $10M for Happ. That's
$76M dollars. And then looking ahead to 2025, the only major
contracts on the books would be Top 4 SS, Suzuki, Nimmo, and
Senga. Plenty of roster space for maturing prospects and $$$ to
sign players to extensions while still pursuing FA's at those
positions where our farm system isn't able to produce.
Finally, I'd suggest any of the Big 4 qualify as "superstar,"
with Swanson admittedly lagging the other 3.
#Post#: 462043--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: ticohans Date: October 18, 2022, 2:40 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Assuming all the above is reasonable from a salary and WAR
projection perspective (big if's!) that means the Cubs go into
2023 with ~#6 overall payroll, the ~6th overall best team, and
still have lots of financial flexibility in 2024 and beyond.
#Post#: 462044--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
By: craig Date: October 18, 2022, 2:49 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=ticohans link=topic=612.msg462030#msg462030
date=1666115216]
...: there is no excuse for the 2023 Cubs - who have at least
top 5 resources in the game, banked salary from 2022, play in
the terrible NL Central, and multiple serious needs that can be
addressed via FA - to spend just ~$190M in 2023.
The White Sox spent nearly $210M in 2022. I cannot envision any
valid reason for any Cub team to ever spend less than the
Southsiders.
[/quote]
"...multiple serious needs that can be addressed via FA..."
Good post. No excuse to not be willing and not to try.
The hesitation I have, and have expressed before, is whether FA
really both can and will address as many of the needs as we
want?
1. What if guys we want don't want us? Bogaerts has deep roots
by now in Boston. What if Hoyer offers him $270 but he'd rather
stay in Boston for $220? Turner is in a fun city with a nice
group of players, and their great team hasn't won a title yet
with him on it, right? What if he'd rather stay and achieve the
WS goal in LA, for $180, even if Hoyer offers $240?
In those hypothetical cases, should Hoyer just offer $280 and
overpay by so very much that Bogaerts or Turner can't say no?
2. Pitchers? What if Rodon doesn't want to come here for
whatever reason? Who knows? Or if the Cub scouts don't really
see Senga as being that good?
There really aren't all THAT many ideal targets at the positions
we need most. 2B or 3B, like nobody, right?
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