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#Post#: 462221--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Deeg
Date: October 22, 2022, 7:01 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Nor is there any indication that ownership is thinking that
way. Other than Deeg's long standing and obvious bias.
>
--- End Quote ---
If you live in an echo chamber, sure.
#Post#: 462227--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: brjones
Date: October 22, 2022, 10:05 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Ownership didn't spend ahead of 2019, 2020, or 2021 when the
championship core was still in place. They spent on Stroman and
Suzuki last year. But they filled the rest of the roster with
lightning in a bottle candidates, low ceiling established MLB
players, and a bunch of guys who had two good months in 2021.
They ignored last year's robust shortstop market and finished
with the 14th highest payroll
(
HTML https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022)
despite being the 3rd
or 4th most valuable franchise in MLB.
There's no reason to assume ownership will spend enough to win
in 2023 at this point. Maybe they will. But based on the last
four years, it's up to them to prove they care about more than
maximizing profits.
#Post#: 462232--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 22, 2022, 10:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: brjones link ---
>
> Ownership didn't spend ahead of 2019, 2020, or 2021 when the
championship core was still in place. They spent on Stroman and
Suzuki last year. But they filled the rest of the roster with
lightning in a bottle candidates, low ceiling established MLB
players, and a bunch of guys who had two good months in 2021.
They ignored last year's robust shortstop market and finished
with the 14th highest payroll
(
HTML https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2022)
despite being the 3rd
or 4th most valuable franchise in MLB.
>
> There's no reason to assume ownership will spend enough to win
in 2023 at this point. Maybe they will. But based on the last
four years, it's up to them to prove they care about more than
maximizing profits.
>
--- End Quote ---
The Cubs had the second highest payroll in all of MLB in 2019 I
believe. So hard to complain about their spending that year.
2020 was, shall we say, an unusual year by any standards. 2021
was to a lesser extent affected by the pandemic, and also the
year in which the Cubs seemed to begin transitioning from
relying on the core players. But, yes 2021 and 2022 were years
in which the Cubs reduced payroll substantially.
But as I pointed out earlier, following the 2016 championship
season the Cubs increased their spending from #14 in that year
to #8 in 2017 to #4 in 2018 and #2 in 2019. It was only as
confidence in relying on the core who were about to become free
agents lessened that the spending dropped substantially.
But time will tell whether and to what extent the Cubs' payroll
becomes more what one would expect from a major market team.
#Post#: 462234--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 22, 2022, 11:00 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
As the guy who first suggested Bellinger, I am amused at the
level of discussion. I was thinking about the ways that some
teams come together, and I looked around for a player whose
shine has come off the star. In fantasy for a couple of years,
he was #1 position player, but not anymore. I had then and I
have not now heard any chatter about the Cubs or anyone else
coveting him. I doubt he will be non tendered. The Dodgers may
very well try to fix him themselves, and, IF, they wished to put
him on the market, I'm sure that there are a number of teams
that would outbid the Cubs. So, all those opposed can sleep
tight. The only comment that sort of confused me was that we
would prefer to have a rookie suspect with a high ceiling try to
fill a hole rather than help a player regain his ceiling. Not
sure that's good thinking.
#Post#: 462235--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 22, 2022, 11:22 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
When the Ricketts bought the Cubs, it seems clear that the
purchase was also about developing the area around the ballpark.
The linked piece below from pre-covid 2019 says the Ricketts
claim to have invested over 1/2 Billion $, including renovating
Wrigley itself. Obviously, this investment was intended to
maximize their profits connected to Wrigleyville. As business
folks do, they do this by loans, mortgages, credit—-with the
goal of turning these projects into a cash cow, if successful.
Doubtful if any of this was ever intended to go toward Cubs
player payroll. Payroll depends on revenues directly connected
to the team, attendance, broadcast of games, concessions, etc.
Think most every team operates that way. Maybe Steve Cohen is
doing something different for a couple years, who knows. But,
it's rare.
Then, in 2020, covid hit. Doesn’t take a genius to figure that
whatever earnings expected to be generated via Wrigleyville
projects for the Ricketts were hard hit. But, still have to pay
your creditors, covid or no-covid.
Probably a reasonable inference that these covid-related issues
for the Ricketts had some impact on player payroll. If true,
that bothers me because doubt that profits would have impacted
payroll, so why should credit problems? We’ll probably never
fully know the connection, if any, but it smells bad. So, I get
the frustration about the covid era payrolls. Still, it’s
speculation about how these matters actually connect.
So, now things have settled back into a semblance of normalcy
(for now, anyway). Let’s see where the payroll goes from here.
What is unfortunate is the amnesia and distortion by some about
the Ricketts previous pre-covid payrolls— which were high and
among the very top spenders. And not to mention a World
Championship, which some seem to have forgotten. Sad if anybody
can’t still appreciate that longer than 10 minutes after the
parade.
So, let’s see what happens going forward. An open question.
HTML https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-real-estate/cubs-owners-refinance-wrigley-field-plaza-hotel
#Post#: 462237--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 22, 2022, 11:35 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CurtOne link ---
>
> As the guy who first suggested Bellinger, I am amused at the
level of discussion. I was thinking about the ways that some
teams come together, and I looked around for a player whose
shine has come off the star. In fantasy for a couple of years,
he was #1 position player, but not anymore. I had then and I
have not now heard any chatter about the Cubs or anyone else
coveting him. I doubt he will be non tendered. The Dodgers may
very well try to fix him themselves, and, IF, they wished to put
him on the market, I'm sure that there are a number of teams
that would outbid the Cubs. So, all those opposed can sleep
tight. The only comment that sort of confused me was that we
would prefer to have a rookie suspect with a high ceiling try to
fill a hole rather than help a player regain his ceiling. Not
sure that's good thinking.
>
--- End Quote ---
Sorry, Curt, I posted below about Bellinger month-and-a half
ago. Old story, revised:
[quote author=Reb link=topic=585.msg459713#msg459713
date=1662239504]
Very good chance that Bellinger could be non-tendered this
off-season.
If Dodgers arb him again, no way that he’s worth the $17 or so
you’d have to take on for him via trade. AND trade away guys of
any value to get him? Not going to happen.
If he’s non-tendered, a plausible case could be made for Cubs to
sign him at WAY less than an arb salary for one year (he’s a FA
after 2023 otherwise). Cubs have been terrible in CF this
season——Velazquez and Morel are poor defensive guys in CF,
Ortega is blah as a starter, Davis probably needs bunch of games
at AAA in 2023. Maybe even use Bellinger at 1B. Could see that.
#Post#: 462238--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 23, 2022, 12:01 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: JeffH link ---
>
> Maybe an opportunity to trade for Kelenic with the Mariners?
He's been a disappointment in the majors so far, but he has the
pedigree. He's lost the CF job to Rodriguez.
>
--- End Quote ---
I suppose that’s a possibility.
My thought is to get a short-term CFer who plays the position
defensively very well.
Aside from Bellinger or Kelenic, it seems that Rays likely to
decline club option on Kiermaier. He had hip surgery, so that
depends on a medical assessment by Cubs, if any interest. Sure,
he’s in a decline, but he can catch the ball and hit some and he
figures to have to take a significant pay cut in free agency.
My thought is that Brennen Davis could be a CF factor by June
next year and PCA starts the season in AA and could certainly be
in majors some time in 2024 if all goes well. So, a 1-year
commitment to an outside guy makes some sense. Don’t see a 4-5
year commitment to Nimmo. Sure, Nimmo could slide over to a
corner but his value is in CF and you’d be paying for that if
you sign him.
#Post#: 462247--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 23, 2022, 11:26 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Ortega: .242/.332/367 vs righties
Bellinger: .209/.272/.412 vs righties last year.
You would be sacrificing OBP for power and better defense.
--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> I have no problem with signing Bellinger if the money is low,
and he does not block anyone else.
>
> But if I could ONLY have Canario OR Bellinger enter spring
training with the Cubs, I would choose Canario without
hesitation.
>
--- End Quote ---
The money you pay him doesn’t really matter. It would be a 1
year deal and they Cubs have enough room in the budget that they
could trade for him and give him $17 million for next year. It
wouldn’t limit what they are going to do. It isn’t AAV that
matters it is the years.
#Post#: 462250--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 23, 2022, 1:06 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
The point of signing Bellinger is projecting that he hits better
than .209 against righties.
He’s not getting $17 as a free agent but he’s still going to get
a sizable contract from whatever club projecting improvement. If
we assume he’s the same guy from last two seasons, then have to
pass. He’ll be playing for a club that projects more.
#Post#: 462253--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in ‘23
DIR By: davep
Date: October 23, 2022, 3:39 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Ortega: .242/.332/367 vs righties
> Bellinger: .209/.272/.412 vs righties last year.
>
> You would be sacrificing OBP for power and better defense.
>
> The money you pay him doesn’t really matter. It would be a 1
year deal and they Cubs have enough room in the budget that they
could trade for him and give him $17 million for next year. It
wouldn’t limit what they are going to do. It isn’t AAV that
matters it is the years.
>
--- End Quote ---
I can't believe that any team would be idiotic enough to offer
him 17 million for one year. Money might not mean much to you,
but no GM will bet that much money on a 20 to 1 shot.
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