DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Bleacher Bums Forum
HTML https://bbf.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Archives
*****************************************************
#Post#: 456085--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: craig Date: July 18, 2022, 9:29 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Reb link=topic=605.msg456070#msg456070
date=1658124080]
Bastian piece, with Kantrovitz remarks.
HTML https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-take-cade-horton-with-no-7-overall-pick-in-mlb-draft[/quote]
Two interesting sections that caught my eye:
1. "In a pre-Draft meeting with Cubs president of baseball
operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins on
Sunday morning, Kantrovitz presented an “ideal road map” for the
first two rounds. Landing Horton was the primary goal, but the
Cubs were already aiming for Ferris in Round 2."
2. "'The first thing I asked Cade when I called him to
congratulate him,” Kantrovitz said, “was if he remembered when
we came to his house back in high school...'"
Interesting that Horton was allegedly the "ideal-road-map"
intended round-one pick, and that they were also "aiming for"
Ferris round 2. So, they did their work, applied their
best-allocation-of-dollars analysis, and got the players they
wanted. Now, time will tell if they both selected wisely and
get lucky with health and development.
Interesting that Kantro apparently hadn't been in prior
communication. Part of the "ideal-road-map" analysis hinges on
price point for each big ticket. So it's interesting that
Kantro had apparently not been in direct personal communication.
Maybe he didn't with family, but had with agent? Maybe he
didn't with family, but the area scout was tasked with that?
I've just always wondered how some of the pre-communication
goes, since the whole plan for 2nd round and beyond hinges on
how much of the $10M budget will get absorbed by pick #1. I'd
kinda guess that is more complex with Horton. I think Steele
could say $1M, nice round number; Triantos, $2M, nice round
number. But Horton's number is much bigger, plus his
self-perception of fair-price has probably fluctuated wildly
since March.
#Post#: 456086--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: craig Date: July 18, 2022, 9:35 am
---------------------------------------------------------
As 2nd round pick was coming, I'd had Connor Prielipp in view,
the U Alabama pitcher from Wisconsin kind of in view. Thinking
that after Wicks last year, and then Horton this year, then if
they added another high-ceiling first-round-talent college guy,
the rotation could hypothetically be rebuilt very very quickly.
So the decision to go after HS Ferris surprised me some.
Perhaps reassuringly so, that kinda confirms the commitment to
long-term BPA.
#Post#: 456087--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: craig Date: July 18, 2022, 10:29 am
---------------------------------------------------------
The rest of today's picks will provide some insight into
Kantro's price estimations for Horton and Ferris. Hoping he's
still got some $$ left to allocate.
I'm optimistic about the two picks. Risky for sure, no
question. For teams where things work out, some uncertain
players work out well.
Cubs need to hit on some of their players, and avoid the injury
bug too. Teams get built player by player. It would so be cool
if down the line the Cubs are a consistently serious contender
with a high-caliber rotation; and in retrospect we look back at
this gutsy, risky draft as one that generated two consistent
asset rotation starters.
Heh heh, while I'm in Koolaid world, Wicks will also be good and
Gray will bounce back from his TJ and be really good too.
I'm also kind of optimistic that between Kantro's staff and
Hawkins, that perhaps they have a pretty good scouting eye for
pitchers? Gray obviously got injured quickly, but he was a
surprise pick last year, barely top-200 in media rankings, but
Kantro's guys evaluated differently and pre-surgery he appeared
to be a stud. So, maybe they're just pretty good at envisioning
what a guy might do? Wicks seems to have been an intelligent
eval, as well. Little and perhaps Moreno appear to have been
scouting-validated picks, even if Moreno is wild and really just
getting started. Obviously pitchers and injuries go together,
so if you spend your bullets on pitchers, you can't act
surprised if they fail due to injury. But yeah, I'd like to
think that they know how to scout and draft pitchers pretty
welll?
The one obvious mega-bust was Burl. Maybe too overconfident in
the pitch-lab capacity to transform **so** wild a guy?
#Post#: 456088--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: CUBluejays Date: July 18, 2022, 10:31 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=craig link=topic=605.msg456085#msg456085
date=1658154557]
Two interesting sections that caught my eye:
1. "In a pre-Draft meeting with Cubs president of baseball
operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins on
Sunday morning, Kantrovitz presented an “ideal road map” for the
first two rounds. Landing Horton was the primary goal, but the
Cubs were already aiming for Ferris in Round 2."
2. "'The first thing I asked Cade when I called him to
congratulate him,” Kantrovitz said, “was if he remembered when
we came to his house back in high school...'"
Interesting that Horton was allegedly the "ideal-road-map"
intended round-one pick, and that they were also "aiming for"
Ferris round 2. So, they did their work, applied their
best-allocation-of-dollars analysis, and got the players they
wanted. Now, time will tell if they both selected wisely and
get lucky with health and development.
Interesting that Kantro apparently hadn't been in prior
communication. Part of the "ideal-road-map" analysis hinges on
price point for each big ticket. So it's interesting that
Kantro had apparently not been in direct personal communication.
Maybe he didn't with family, but had with agent? Maybe he
didn't with family, but the area scout was tasked with that?
I've just always wondered how some of the pre-communication
goes, since the whole plan for 2nd round and beyond hinges on
how much of the $10M budget will get absorbed by pick #1. I'd
kinda guess that is more complex with Horton. I think Steele
could say $1M, nice round number; Triantos, $2M, nice round
number. But Horton's number is much bigger, plus his
self-perception of fair-price has probably fluctuated wildly
since March.
[/quote]
I believe it is the area scout that does the work on
signability.
This is from Fangraphs
"I don’t know for sure whether the Cubs cut an under-slot deal
with Cade Horton, but based on the pre-draft rumors about them
looking to cut at pick No. 7, and the Jackson Ferris pick in
round two, I’d guess they did. Horton was rumored to be ticketed
for close to $4 million before the draft, which would be a $1.7
million cut. Jackson Ferris, I’m told, was looking for “Top 20
money,” which means about $3.5 million, about $2 million above
slot at his pick."
#Post#: 456089--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: craig Date: July 18, 2022, 11:01 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=CUBluejays link=topic=605.msg456088#msg456088
date=1658158310]
I believe it is the area scout that does the work on
signability.
This is from Fangraphs
"I don’t know for sure whether the Cubs cut an under-slot deal
with Cade Horton, but based on the pre-draft rumors about them
looking to cut at pick No. 7, and the Jackson Ferris pick in
round two, I’d guess they did. Horton was rumored to be ticketed
for close to $4 million before the draft, which would be a $1.7
million cut. Jackson Ferris, I’m told, was looking for “Top 20
money,” which means about $3.5 million, about $2 million above
slot at his pick."[/quote]
Thanks, blue. I guess I'd wondered whether, for a $5M-type
big-ticket franchise-player-wannabe, whether Kantro or Hoyer or
Hawkins might perhaps take that over? Higher stakes than with
guys like Christian Franklin or Luke Little or the biochemist.
But perhaps they still do just leave it to the area scout, even
for Horton.
Obvious that he'll be variably underslot. The Fangraph gossip
that Ferris was wanting top-20 cash, that's informative and not
obvious. Adding two guys your scouts think are top-10/top-20
values, that's really fun. :). Two practical questions are
how far under and over for Horton and Ferris; and how
well-defined those numbers entering today's picks? *If* Kantro
hypotheticallyalready knows those numbers, that would facilitate
strategic decisions today. For example, whether Horton and
Ferris combine for 6.9, 7.4, or 7.9 will dramatically impact
what Kantro can do today.
#Post#: 456093--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: davep Date: July 18, 2022, 12:21 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
If the Cubs are not able to sign Ferris, do they get a
replacement pick next year, or did the new agreement change
that?
#Post#: 456095--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: papa smurf Date: July 18, 2022, 12:55 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
i thought it was only if you didnt sign your first round pick
not a second. but I could be way wrong on that
#Post#: 456096--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: CUBluejays Date: July 18, 2022, 12:55 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=davep link=topic=605.msg456093#msg456093
date=1658164877]
If the Cubs are not able to sign Ferris, do they get a
replacement pick next year, or did the new agreement change
that?
[/quote]
New pick. Kantrovitz expects no signability issues with either
guy.
[quote author=craig link=topic=605.msg456089#msg456089
date=1658160082]
*If* Kantro hypotheticallyalready knows those numbers, that
would facilitate strategic decisions today. For example,
whether Horton and Ferris combine for 6.9, 7.4, or 7.9 will
dramatically impact what Kantro can do today.
[/quote]
The Cubs will know the dollar amount of every pick they make.
#Post#: 456097--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: papa smurf Date: July 18, 2022, 1:11 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
wow another HS player didnt see that thought they were going to
try to save some money
#Post#: 456098--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
By: craig Date: July 18, 2022, 1:11 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
UCLA commit. Kantro had some money to spend, I think...
*****************************************************
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page