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#Post#: 456545--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Dave23
Date: July 24, 2022, 9:59 pm
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Noland pitched great against both Stanford and Ole Miss in
Omaha.
#Post#: 456704--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 26, 2022, 11:04 pm
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Lee signs for slightly over-slot with the #8 pick.
-He basically signs with the Twins for what our slot would have
been, $5.7, versus the $4.45 Horton got. $1.2 difference.
-Collier signed for $5.0.
-Parada hasn't signed yet.
In my view, the Cubs did not pass on Collier for financial
reasons. To make Collier work, the Cubs could have still taken
Ferris; all they'd have needed to compromise was on 3rd-round
projection Paciolla. No big deal. If Collier and Horton were
equal, sure, price is fine as a tiebreaker. But *IF* the Cubs
scouted Collier ahead of Horton, Paciolla and a little money
would NOT have overridden taking the preferred prospect.
Lee, though, at $1.2 that equivalent argument does not hold. To
take Lee would have either meant deferring on Ferris, or else
pretty much seriously sub-slotting for every round after Ferris.
So with Lee, I think it *IS* plausible that the Cubs might have
preferred Lee, all things being equal; but preferred Horton +
Ferris over Lee. We'll never know, of course; perhaps they
really had Lee and Horton at equivalent value, so it was a
no-brainer.
#Post#: 456708--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 27, 2022, 12:29 am
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Listened to Keith Law’s draft post-mortem podcast at The
Athletic, an interesting listen that i’d recommend. Went up
about 5 days ago before Horton bonus info went up.
Law has written that Cubs Horton pick was perhaps a “recency
bias” pick, which he explains as a matter of draft philosophy
that folks can reasonably disagree about. Think that perhaps he
gives a bit of short shrift to Horton’s HS pedigree but most
interesting thing is that he assumes Horton will sign for slot
or near slot and, therefore, not really impacting other Cubs
picks that much—although he mentions Ferris and Mule as upside
potential guys.
After the Kantrovitz interviews and the Horton actual bonus
number, all of it makes more sense compared to draft day.
Before the draft, I said hope that Cubs get the guy they really
want but don’t outsmart themselves (Hayden Simpson still in the
memory bank, I think). If it turns out that Horton’s last 5
starts were an illusion, maybe that description might fit. But,
at this point, on board with Cubs draft philosophy and the
massive emphasis on pitching upside.
#Post#: 456726--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: davep
Date: July 27, 2022, 9:40 am
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I think that it is far too oversimplified to consider only the
first and second round picks when considering the Horton choice.
I think it is quite likely that the Cubs knew not only what
Horton would sign for, but also what they could sign Lee or
Collier for. So they were deciding what was the better value,
Horton at 4.4 million or Lee at 5.7 million. If they felt that
the future value of Lee was worth the 5.7, but the future value
of Horton was 5.6 million, (not quite as high as Lee, but much
higher than the actual cost), then they made the right choice,
giving them an excess value of 1.1 million to spend later in the
draft, whether it be Ferris or someone equivalent.
#Post#: 456727--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 27, 2022, 10:20 am
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Even the $500,000 difference between Horton and Collier has a
big effect on who the Cubs after Ferris.
Law thinks it is recency bias by going after Horton and just
looking at postseason Kantrovitz, from interviews, believes
that the trackman numbers provide a statistically significant
sample.
#Post#: 456749--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 27, 2022, 2:37 pm
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reb, a couple of thoughts.
"Recency bias" is pejorative, but I'm a cautious supporter!
Especially for young pitchers whose capacities are changing. If
a guy has learned new skills, it makes best sense to evaluate
him as he is now, with those skills, rather than evaluate him as
the pre-skill guy. Horton got faster; his command got better;
he developed the slider. He flashed pitches in June that
trackman captured, that were not there in March.
"Recency bias" is more appropriate for young pitchers than for
hitters or vets. Young pitchers really do learn new grips and
new pitches that make them better, sustainably so. And show up
with sustainably increased velocity. Their skills and
capacities can change significantly. Hitters can't "learn to
hit" the way a pitcher can "learn a new grip", so "adding a
skill" isn't really a thing for hitters.
The small-sample is a legit hesitation and risk for sure; who
knows how sustainable any of it will be? Horton didn't pitch
until March 29, or start until April 14. His postseason (31IP)
was barely smaller than the regular season 53IP.
I trust the thoroughness and logic of the Cubs analysis, and
accept the associated risk. I'm sure they are well aware that
there is no safety in either Horton or Ferris. You can have
great process and logic and infrastructure and philosophy, but
it comes down to individual players and health.
Twenty year ago I trusted the process and liked drafting
Brownlie, Blasko, Luke Hagerty, Justin Jones, and Billy Petrick,
too. Seemed like a great, high-ceiling haul that could
hypothetically combine with Prior and Kerry Wood to set up a
pitching dynasty! Opportunity unfulfilled.
#Post#: 456805--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 28, 2022, 1:31 pm
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4th rounder Nazier Mule has signed.
CCDT has a link to his Instagram page with photo of the signing.
No bonus $ out yet.
#Post#: 456810--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 28, 2022, 2:45 pm
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Bonus for 13th rounder HS pitcher Luis Rujano was
$210,000——$85,000 overslot.
So, that leaves just over $4 M for Ferris and Mule and any other
overslots.
#Post#: 456812--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 28, 2022, 3:00 pm
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Mule’s bonus is $1 M even.
That leaves a few dollars over $3 for Ferris.
#Post#: 456813--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 28, 2022, 3:05 pm
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HTML https://twitter.com/JonathanMayo/status/1552742137208389632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1552742137208389632%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1552742137208389632
Mule $1.0 as expected.
Leaves $3.005 as max possible for Ferris
Reb, you are fast! Way to go.
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