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#Post#: 456343--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 22, 2022, 1:05 pm
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
>
HTML https://theathletic.com/3437936/2022/07/21/mlb-draft-report-card-national-league/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
>
> Keith Law article, collects his notes on the Cubs picks. He
has some mechanical faults with Ferris and Birdsell, plus of
course Horton as a 2-pitch guy. This kind of encourages the
idea that *if* the Cubs pitch-lab development process actually
works, think what guys might become with some optimization. If
Birdsell is throwing 94-96 and touches 98 with a lousy delivery
that doesn't use his lower half, what might he become *if* he
optimizes his delivery and is better able to use his legs? *IF*
Ferris has some delivery flaws, imagine if the delivery gets
optimized so that his control can be more consistent? If Horton
can dominate the College World series with his two pitches,
imagine how interesting he might become as he develops 3rd and
maybe 4th besides?
>
> Seems like some fun projects for Breslow to try to optimize.
>
> I kind of assume they communicate quite a bit with players to
see how willing they are to modify what they do. I recall back
in Fleita days, they were kinda hesitant to mess with guys, at
least not until they'd had some problems and were looking for
solutions. I expect modern pitchers are much more eager to
experiment, and with pitch lab to have better opportunity to
quantify what might work and might help. But I suspect they've
already talked to guys and have some sense of their willingness
and openness to change.
>
--- End Quote ---
Law was on the Athletic baseball podcast and talked a little bit
more about the Cubs draft. His issue with Horton is the lack of
dominance over an extended period of time. He chalked it up
more of a philosophical difference. When he mentioned the high
upside arms the Cubs took he mentioned Ferris, Mule and Frisch.
He said without the injury Frisch might have been a top 2 round
talent.
#Post#: 456346--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 22, 2022, 1:26 pm
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Thanks, Blue. frish as a possible round 2-3 talent, I'd say
that's fine with waiting a bit, if you're getting that for slot
in the 6th round.
#Post#: 456347--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: davep
Date: July 22, 2022, 1:38 pm
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I agree. Cease was drafted around that level because of his
surgery, and certainly was worth the wait. Unfortunately, it
wasn't the Cubs who waited.
#Post#: 456349--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 22, 2022, 1:43 pm
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Speaking of injuries...
In Kantro's Marquee interview, something in his wording gave me
the impression that he was not confident regarding Mule
arm-health-wise.
He was clear that focusing on pitching first was their
perspective. But being so young and athletic, that it was too
soon to know what he'd end up being good at. But there was also
something to the effect that they hadn't had him in for a
physical yet.
It gave me the impression that they did NOT already have
arm-eval information info that had already reassured them that
Mule's sore-arm was a non-issue. I kind of inferred that *IF*
Mule hypothetically needs surgery, that Kantro would be neither
shocked nor regretful of having drafted Mule.
#Post#: 456353--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 22, 2022, 2:01 pm
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Yes, I got the same thing from the interview about condition of
Mule’s arm.
Guessing that’s a preview of something we’ll hear to come.
#Post#: 456354--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 22, 2022, 2:36 pm
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Law mentioned he was shut down at some point this year in the
podcast and I got the impression that he was throwing at the
draft combine. Anybody throwing 100 in their teen years is at
high risk for TJS.
#Post#: 456408--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 23, 2022, 10:37 am
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> ....
> Method had a post about Steele’s fastball and how it isn’t
giving up HR. The Cubs are targeting what is his fastball does
and trying to teach it. I don’t fully understand it yet and am
trying to read up on it. See when I don’t get something I try
and learn about.
--- End Quote ---
I wonder how tweakable fastball stuff is.
I think that in context of new draftees. College guys Horton
and Birdsell (both of whom have signed), both throw pretty fast,
but without necessarily have fastballs that are all that good.
How much can that be tweaked?
From Sharma on Horton: "while the fastball is a 70 pitch
according to scouts on velocity alone, it plays more average.
.... The heater for Horton is an area the Cubs will focus on,
along with likely adding a pitch that can move arm-side to
counter his sweeping slider. The current belief is it could be a
power changeup..."
At least one of the Horton scouting reports seemed kinda
similar, his fastball is fast, but it wasn't especially hard to
hit.
I get testing different grips for breaking balls. If Horton is
70-velocity fastball, but it plays average, and it's an area the
Cubs will focus on, I wonder what you do to tweak that. I can't
imagine it would be arm slot or stride length or whatever. I'd
imagine it has to be something more nuanced in the grip and
release, I guess, if possible. Or, perhaps it's less a matter
of changing it, but more a matter of locking into the best
version? I imagine a guy who's only thrown 50 innings, that
he's not been throwing the exact same ball every time. So maybe
20% he throws ones that have excellent metrics; but 40% of OK,
and 40% are lousy. The composite might come across as
"average". But maybe the goal is to identify what makes the
excellent ones excellent, and figure out how to do that all the
time, or maybe at least 70% of the time, rather than only 20%?
I imagine some of the same will go with Birdsell.
I think D+D look for guys who can throw really good pitches
sometimes, and figure it's development's job to make that the
norm. The flip is that a lot of mediocre pitchers throw a lot
of terrific pitches. But a lot of the damage comes on the
mistakes. So success is impacted largely by how good the good
ones actually are, but also the frequency-rate of less-than-good
ones.
#Post#: 456410--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 23, 2022, 10:49 am
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$4,450,000 for Horton's deal.
1. That would be between the 12 and 13 slot values.
2. Frees $1.3.
3. Overall 5% overage was $0.5.
4. Those two combined provide $1.8 in discretionary overslot.
5. Hull came in at $25K, $222 under.
6. Assuming Noland and McCullough come in at ~25K each, that
would free up ~$250 more.
7. So, I'm figuring they've got $2.2-2.3M to allocate for their
overslot deals.
I'll be curious to see whether McGwire gets much if any of that.
His slot is $189, I'd not be surprised to see him come in
pretty much at slot, or maybe $200, $250, or $300, but probably
not above that.
I'd kinda figure Kantro wanted to keep ~$200 for his 3rd-day
picks? What and Blatter are pretty much the two remaining
younger guys who might command overslot. But not sure whether
or not Rujano may have already agreed to some overslot, or if he
just agreed for the $125K standard.
#Post#: 456411--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 23, 2022, 11:17 am
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Going back to some earlier discussion, I think Kantro was pretty
unambiguous in that Marquee interview. He was pretty
unambiguous that he was considering the whole draft, not just a
single player, and that eventually the draft will be judged by
the class as a whole, not just by a single selection. I don't
think he really could have been more transparent that "trading
down" to improve subsequent picks was part of the analysis.
deeg, I think you faulted him as if he was being misleading or
dishonest; and perhaps for my 12-year-old nephew, or for my
wife, perhaps they are too naive to understand what he
communicated. But I didn't perceive any dishonesty there.
seemed as obvious and transparent and straightforward as you can
get, for anybody who understands how the draft works.
I totally get the question, whether it's ever wise to "trade
down" in a baseball draft. It's surely a risk in a high-stakes
gamble, and if Horton, Ferris, Paciolla, and Mule all bust,
while Lee, Pareda, or Collier both sign for more than $4.5 AND
become high-value players, it may look pretty bad in retrospect.
Time will tell.
I'll be interested to see how much more expensive those three
guys are when they sign. I'd seen a rumor that Collier had a $5
deal with Cinci, but he hasn't sign that yet. But *IF*
hypothetically he's $5, only $0.5 above Horton, that's not a
monstrous difference. *IF* those guys end up signing for
≤$0.5 more than Horton, that kinda suggests to me that
Kantro's scouting evaluation did NOT have the more expensive
players as significantly more valuable on the BPA continuum.
The Cubs may well have had those guys pretty much on the same
scouting-plateau.
For the moment, I'm fine with the decision they made. I think
it's kind of exciting, to be aggressive and shoot for a couple
of first-round-talent pitchers. Heh heh, optimist that I am,
sometimes one fluky-lucky or fluky-smart draft can transform a
franchise. Heh heh, maybe six years from now, the Cubs will be
premium contender, with Mule closing, Ferris and Horton as #1-#2
rotation starters, Birdsell a reliable setup guy, Paciolla
emerging as an asset young starting 3B, and McGwire and Blatter
having emerged as good trade-value guys at the Iowa options
yo-yo. Shoot, maybe Haydn McGeary will be a solid,
middle-of-the-order DH by then! And Shane Marshall will be
another nice relief guy! Heh heh, everybody is going to hit
their ceilings in this draft!
#Post#: 456412--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Deeg
Date: July 23, 2022, 11:25 am
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Craig, if he's been honest about him credit where it's due. I
still don't agree with the strategy when you have the 7th pick
and a guy like Lee is on the board but better that he admit the
truth (tacitly).
That said, I still don't see Horton as being worth even the slot
money he got, 10-13, and who knows but I doubt he would have
gone that high. I'm not sure he would have gone much before
Ferris.
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