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#Post#: 456286--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: craig
Date: July 21, 2022, 2:46 pm
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HTML https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-weekly-podcast-dan-kantrovitz-analyzes-2022-draft/
Kantro comes on at 5 minutes, and stays through 32 minutes.
Excellent interview, he's pretty open. Several interesting
notes that struck me (it was all interesting, so these are just
selective)
1. Said they'd actually even talked about Ferris at 7 at one
point or another. So was happy he was still available at 47.
2. Said rounds 1+2 went exactly as they had hoped.
3. Made reference to Horton being their "#1 guy", but the
context pretty obviously factored in allocating budget to other
draftees.
4. For Paciolla, spoke to his positional flexibility, and
scouting consensus that his contact capacity is good. Wording
was perhaps optimistic but not necessarily super-confident about
future power potential. (I found some of the media reports on
him variably inconsistent. One spoke favorably about his
contact; one or two others didn't. One or two talked about
power potential, not all... So getting a feel for how Kantro
and the Cub scouts perceive him was informative.).
5. Repeated reference to infrastructure and high-performance
team and Breslow's team, etc.. Pretty obviously drafting for
talent, and then entrusting it to the development teams.
6. Talked Birdsell as being pretty advanced. So didn't sound
like he envisioned re-developing him in every way.
#Post#: 456287--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: dallen7908
Date: July 21, 2022, 2:49 pm
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Yes, my memory is likely biased, but in the past it seems like
they wanted draft selections to just go out and pitch during the
summer after being drafted before making adjustments in the
fall. I suspect there is so much data out there now that they
can go up to a kid and say these changes will get you to the
majors. Let's put them in place behind the scenes - and I'll
let you try them out for 1 or 2 innings before the ACL
concludes.
The late rounds used to be when you would fill out your SS-A
team. Now it's all about getting pitchers with the potential to
have plus pitch- after tweaks in the lab. Why exciting in
theory, most of this will go on out of our sight.
Remember how excited "we" were when Ryan Jensen emerged from the
pitching lab with 3 stellar outings in June (6/1 K/W in 8 IP
with 5 H and 0 R allowed). In July he has a 9/8 K/W in 11 IP
with 13 H and 10 ER allowed. Back to the lab?
#Post#: 456289--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 21, 2022, 3:51 pm
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Because nobody on the board has any real access to really good
first-hand info pre-draft—while the Cubs do, my hope for Cubs
draft was that (1) Cubs are able to draft who they really want
and (2) cubs don’t outsmart themselves, given all the multiples
to consider.
Seems like they accomplished the first point above. Kantrovitz
sure sounds like that happened. But, a little bit of me worries
about the second point with the Horton pick.
I get the pick. High upside SP. Below slot and creates money for
another high upside SP 2nd round. Makes sense.
But, most drafts in hindsight heavily evaluated based on how 1st
rounder panned out. And, Cubs passed on Brooks Lee who seems to
have a strong case for being a solid regular (or better)…and
soon. That’s a lot to pass up for a guy that Kantrovitz
basically conceded would not have been the pick if draft was
held a month earlier. Keith Law threw out the description of
“recency bias” for this pick and maybe “bias” is too pejorative
a word but “recency” definitely seems apt.
Earlier, I noted that Horton had a HS pedigree too, so that's
comforting. But, a little scary that the pick is mostly based on
the pick’s most recent five starts. I get the “process” involved
in the Cubs draft as a whole but will wonder for some time
whether passing on Lee was a good idea.
As I have zero expertise to quarrel about it, I only raise the
point. And, guessing that similar point was made within Cubs
brain trust and then rejected. So, that’s good enough for me to
be okay with the pick. But…..we’ll see.
#Post#: 456290--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Dave23
Date: July 21, 2022, 5:06 pm
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HTML https://omny.fm/shows/wscr-0001/who-is-cade-horton-cubs-1st-round-pick-7th-overall
Not sure if this has been shared or not…David Haugh talks with
Oklahoma coach Skip Johnson about Horton.
It’s a 35 minute clip, but only the first 19 or so are the
interview…
#Post#: 456298--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Deeg
Date: July 21, 2022, 6:51 pm
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It's perfectly fine for the Cubs to take the trading down
strategy and draft an overslot guy in the second round. A
defensible strategy, though not what I would have done with
Parada and (especially) Lee on the board. It would just be
refreshing if they admitted that's what they were doing instead
of pretending they though Horton was the BPA and everything went
exactly as they dreamed.
#Post#: 456321--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: Reb
Date: July 21, 2022, 11:20 pm
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If you listen to the Kantrovitz interview closely, he basically
tells us that the Horton bonus was a factor in getting the draft
achieved—as a whole—the way Cubs wanted to do it.
He’s not asserting that, if it was a one-round draft, the pick
necessarily is Horton.
He’s telling us, fairly up-front, the context of that pick. At
least that’s what I got from the interview.
Maybe, because the #7 overall pick is so important, the better
strategy is to just take BPA with that pick—as if it was a
one-round draft—and begin the “process” at round 2 and beyond.
That’s the issue I raised earlier. I don’t know the answer.
#Post#: 456331--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 22, 2022, 7:50 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
>
HTML https://theathletic.com/3437936/2022/07/21/mlb-draft-report-card-national-league/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
>
> Keith Law article, collects his notes on the Cubs picks. He
has some mechanical faults with Ferris and Birdsell, plus of
course Horton as a 2-pitch guy. This kind of encourages the
idea that *if* the Cubs pitch-lab development process actually
works, think what guys might become with some optimization. If
Birdsell is throwing 94-96 and touches 98 with a lousy delivery
that doesn't use his lower half, what might he become *if* he
optimizes his delivery and is better able to use his legs? *IF*
Ferris has some delivery flaws, imagine if the delivery gets
optimized so that his control can be more consistent? If Horton
can dominate the College World series with his two pitches,
imagine how interesting he might become as he develops 3rd and
maybe 4th besides?
>
> Seems like some fun projects for Breslow to try to optimize.
>
> I kind of assume they communicate quite a bit with players to
see how willing they are to modify what they do. I recall back
in Fleita days, they were kinda hesitant to mess with guys, at
least not until they'd had some problems and were looking for
solutions. I expect modern pitchers are much more eager to
experiment, and with pitch lab to have better opportunity to
quantify what might work and might help. But I suspect they've
already talked to guys and have some sense of their willingness
and openness to change.
>
--- End Quote ---
Ferris has a similar long arm action to Jensen that the Cubs
just cleaned up on him this year. So I think his issues are
fixable. They have had luck with adding pitches like spike
curves and Vulcan change ups prior to the revamp of the pitch
lab so I think Horton’s issues are fixable.
It is fine to have opinions before the draft and even wish the
Cubs did something different. They cleatlrly have a lot more
info than what we do. I can see the what they where going for
it makes sense. Carraway is literally the only draft pick that
Kantrovitz has made that was a real WTF. We’ll just have to wait
5 years and see if they were right.
#Post#: 456336--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: davep
Date: July 22, 2022, 9:53 am
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Even with Carraway, I believe that the WTF was due to the fact
that he was projected to be a releiver rather than the question
of whether his command could be fixed.
#Post#: 456337--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: davep
Date: July 22, 2022, 10:00 am
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--- Quote from: Reb link ---
>
> If you listen to the Kantrovitz interview closely, he
basically tells us that the Horton bonus was a factor in getting
the draft achieved—as a whole—the way Cubs wanted to do it.
>
> He’s not asserting that, if it was a one-round draft, the pick
necessarily is Horton.
>
> He’s telling us, fairly up-front, the context of that pick. At
least that’s what I got from the interview.
>
> Maybe, because the #7 overall pick is so important, the better
strategy is to just take BPA with that pick—as if it was a
one-round draft—and begin the “process” at round 2 and beyond.
That’s the issue I raised earlier. I don’t know the answer.
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
As you say, we can't read minds, so all we can do is guess,
based upon what we have been told. My personal opinion is that
in a one round draft, they would have taken someone else.
ArizonaPhil made a good explaination, showing that with the
money spent on the two rounds of the draft, it is equivilent to
trading our first round pick, number 7 and our second round
pick, number 47, for two midteen first round picks. It was
functionally the same as a football team trading down.
That said, the Cubs were lucky to get (presumably) the second
rounder that they wanted. It could easily ended up differently,
although not necessarily worse.
#Post#: 456340--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs Draft 2022
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: July 22, 2022, 12:42 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> Even with Carraway, I believe that the WTF was due to the fact
that he was projected to be a releiver rather than the question
of whether his command could be fixed.
>
--- End Quote ---
That was my issue, taking a guy who was strictly a reliever in
the second round. It is like drafting a DH, they have to be so
amazing to make the pick work.
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