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#Post#: 39088--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: brjones
Date: October 21, 2011, 2:34 pm
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MLB Trade Rumors, talking about something Heyman said in a
column:
--- Quote ---
>
> One general manager expects C.J. Wilson to sign a deal worth
$75MM over five years.
>
--- End Quote ---
I'd have no problem with the Cubs giving him that deal.
#Post#: 39089--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: JeffH
Date: October 21, 2011, 2:45 pm
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I'd be surprised if he signed for that little.
#Post#: 39094--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: October 21, 2011, 3:07 pm
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I dunno, I think he's lost a lot of money this postseason.
#Post#: 39118--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 21, 2011, 3:47 pm
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I haven't been impressed. Maybe he's just in a slump.
#Post#: 39122--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: October 21, 2011, 3:51 pm
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I don't know why but he's been homer happy in the playoffs the
last two years but during the regular season, he's been an
anti-homer pitcher, even pitching his home games at Arlington.
It may be that, as a former reliever, that he's simply worn down
by October.
Whatever the explanation/excuse, he has been a different
pitcher.
#Post#: 39164--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 22, 2011, 6:34 am
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Bruce Levine has a blog on the first 5 things Theo and Hoyer
need to do.
HTML http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs
HTML http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs
It's an OK list, but what caught my eye was this observation
when Levine discussed the need to improve the team defense:
First baseman Carlos Pena saved 50 bad throws which he converted
to outs, according to ESPN Stats & Info. That number led all of
baseball in outs saved.
Wow. I wouldn't have guessed the number to be that high.
I don't expect Ramirez to be back with the Cubs, so 3B will be a
hole to fill. But I think 1B presents an especially interesting
decision point.
I'm not expecting the Cubs to go after Pujols or Fielder. If
that's correct, unless Theo decides to give LaHair a shot, Pena
could make a lot of sense - if he could be limited to a 2 year
deal at reasonable money (by today's obscene major league
standards). As has been discussed, in some respects he's a
Theo-type player.
LaHair may be a AAAA player, but he may be a legit major league
power guy. I have no clue about the quality of his defense at
1B. I wonder if he's at least earned a spot on the roster, as a
backup at 1B, occasional duty in the OF and pinch hitting.
#Post#: 39166--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 22, 2011, 6:46 am
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I've seen it posted that LaHair's defense is okay, but not
Lee-Grace-Pena caliber. That stat about Pena is especially
intriguing when I recall how often throws got past him or he
wasn't able to come up with. I don't recall Barney throwing
that poorly, so most of these were from ARam and short? Ouch.
#Post#: 39168--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 22, 2011, 7:18 am
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Even though we shouldn’t expect the Cubs to be contenders next
year, there could be significant changes in the makeup of the
team that takes the field in the spring. Is it possible the
only total certainties among position players may be Castro,
Soto and Barney (in some role)? Could everyone else be on the
bubble?
Most of us assume there will be a different 3B (either LeMahieu
or an import). Castro is a fixture at SS (unless the new
manager has the cajones to move him to 3B and move Barney to
SS). Barney will presumably be there, either as 2B or as a
backup infielder. 1B could be Pena again, or not.
In the OF, there are lots of questions. Will the new regime make
a concerted effort to trade Soriano to an AL team needing a DH,
with Ricketts willing to eat a lot money to make it happen? Will
Byrd be trade bait or will he be seen as a decent role model and
transitional figure? It’s easy to imagine a scenario in which
the Cubs have an entirely new OF (although it’s unlikely) –
there’s really no one who is entitled to a position there in
2012, based on 2011 performance. Hopefully Jackson will occupy
either CF or RF on a regular basis, and I suppose it’s possible
that LaHair could be in the OF as well.
There is also the potential for major changes on the bench. If
LaHair isn’t a starter, he would seem to be a logical bench guy
(power and oba as a pinch hitter, backup 1B and OF). Campana
may or may not be back in a bench role because of his speed. We
all know that Baker is terrific against LH pitching, but that’s
the only thing he’s very good at. He stinks against RH pitching
(.419 OPS in 80 AB in 2012) and he’s not particularly good
defensively. Surprisingly, DeWitt actually had better offensive
numbers than Baker (both against RH and LH pitching) last
season, and he’s five years younger. Does the team really have
room for both on their bench?
It’s hard to see the Cubs trading Soto with neither of their
catching prospects having had an opportunity to prove themselves
at the major league level (cue complaints about playing Koyie
Hill over Castillo and Clevenger in 2011).
#Post#: 39169--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 22, 2011, 7:26 am
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Jeez, how could I forget Reed Johnson? Among the semi-regulars,
the only guys who had a higher OPS were Ramirez and Pena. I
certainly expect him to be back either on the bench or as a
placeholder in the OF.
#Post#: 39171--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: October 22, 2011, 7:29 am
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--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> First baseman Carlos Pena saved 50 bad throws which he
converted to outs, according to ESPN Stats & Info. That number
led all of baseball in outs saved.
>
> Wow. I wouldn't have guessed the number to be that high.
>
--- End Quote ---
And it likely wasn't.
The conclusion of Levin's blog is in line with much of what we
have seen from not only the Chicago media and the Boston media,
but also on this board: Theo and Co., roll up your sleeves and
make the same magic happen as in Boston.
Theo is essentially viewed as a magician. A wunderkind, since
he might now be a few years too old to any longer be called a
wiz-kid. That he "turned around" Boston.
One thing I do like about Epstein is that in the quotes I have
seen from him, he is much more realistic in evaluating his own
performance (unlike Billy Beane). Epstein is quite candid in
acknowledging that he took over a strong franchise in Boston
(five straight years finishing 2nd), and that the outcome in the
post season is primarily luck because of the short series
involved, that he has never built teams "to win in the post
season" but has instead had as his goal winning 95 regular
season games a year, because that many wins will virtually
always assure making the post season and will mean the team is
strong enough to have a good chance in the post season
crap-shoot.
And the team he took over had just won 93 games, to improving
them by two wins and getting lucky was not exactly Herculean,
nor did it exhibit Solomonic wisdom or any gifts of prophesy.
Nor was it "magic." And those thinking Theo brings any of that,
or some sort of cookie-cutter "system" of management which will
work as well with the organization he is now taking over as it
did in Boston seem almost delusional.
He is by all accounts a bright guy, with decent people skills,
who instills some degree of loyalty to those who work with him,
invites competing opinions, has shown a willingness to embrace
new ideas and approaches, is dedicated to the task he faces and
willing to put in long hours... AND has at least paid nice lip
service to building from within and from investing in scouting
and development.
But those last two are the most important for the Cubs, and
those appear to be coming primarily from Ricketts, and if those
are done competently, not brilliantly but just competently, and
they are done for a sustained period, the Cubs will become
winners for an extended period.
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