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#Post#: 38018--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: October 14, 2011, 11:41 am
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--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I agree with Dave, if you want to offer arb to Pena, you
should probably expect that you'll have him back at $8 or $10,
rather than expecting a draft pick.
>
> Of course, I don't know the man. He seems bright and may be
looking for a chance at some playoff baseball still before he
retires. Or he might be the type of guy who'd rather play
somewhere for $4.5 than be a backup on the Cubs for $8. So
perhaps if we did acquire somebody else as the intended starter,
Pena wouldn't accept a Cub arb deal, even if it would
necessarily offer more millions for this year than he could get
elsewhere.
>
--- End Quote ---
If the Cubs had any sense, they would not need to "acquire
somebody else as the intended starter," but merely make clear to
Pena that whether he is under contract with the Cub by virtue of
arbitration, or leaves as a FA, or drops dead, or hits .500 in
spring training, he is NOT going to be the starting firstbaseman
for the Cubs in 2012, that the Cubs will go with LaHair or if he
fails they will go with someone else who is a prospect and may
be around to help for a while, and they will NOT be playing
Pena. Pena would then have to decide whether to become a FA
now, after a fairly good season might increase his FA value, or
wait to become a FA after getting 200 AB in 2012 and seeing what
value he had then.
I also don't quite understand how you would believe that he
would likely only get $4.5 and a backup firstbaseman's role
somewhere else, when you believe he would likely get $8-10M for
one year in arbitration.
#Post#: 38025--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 14, 2011, 12:07 pm
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I don't like Pena. I just don't see him as a plus. HOWEVER,
with his high walk rate and OPS, Theo might love him. Friedman
did. So, we may be keeping him. The price to be paid to have a
guy like Theo, I guess.
#Post#: 38040--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: davep
Date: October 14, 2011, 1:02 pm
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I suspect we will be saying that a lot in the near future.
#Post#: 38043--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: ticohans
Date: October 14, 2011, 1:18 pm
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with his obp, slg, and defense, pena is definitely a plus, and a
guy i would not mind seeing accept arb, if it comes to that.
#Post#: 38045--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 14, 2011, 1:32 pm
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I think it was Tribune, but somebody had an article where Pena
was looking for a multi-year deal and wasn't interested in a 1
year deal.
#Post#: 38061--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: JeffH
Date: October 14, 2011, 3:13 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
It will be fascinating to see what Epstein does in his first
offseason with the club.
I wonder if player moves might be made more toward "changing the
culture" (i.e., improving effort) and less toward trying to "get
good" right away.
Ramirez, Zambrano, Soriano out.
Pena, Byrd, Barney, Reed Johnson stay.
Bring in a veteran mentor for Castro.
#Post#: 38066--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: October 14, 2011, 3:57 pm
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--- Quote from: JeffH link ---
>
> Bring in a veteran mentor for Castro.
>
--- End Quote ---
What's Omar Vizquel's status? Is he retiring yet? If he's
retiring and is interested in a coaching job, sign him and make
him Starlin Castro's personal instructor / first base coach.
I couldn't think of a better handler for him.
#Post#: 38067--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: craig
Date: October 14, 2011, 4:10 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> Craig - Characterizing Pena simply as a .220 hitter is a tad
disingenuous, don't you think? ...
> To suggest that Pena could only get $4.5 million for 2012,
less than Marlon Byrd, seems to me to seriously undervalue the
guy.
--- End Quote ---
Sorry Ron. I sincerely and honestly wasn't trying to be
disingenuous, or to be devaluing Pena. He hits HR's, walks,
plays defense, is a good chemist, and he hits .225. It's all
part of the total package. Is that total package work $10/1,
$25/3, $15/2, or $4.5/1, I don't know. My guess is that teams
aren't lining up to pay him $10 per season, or to offer
multi-year deals approaching that. I may be wrong. My guess is
that they won't be so motivated to sign a player of his profile
that he'll be all targeted, wrapped and signed by some other
team before the arbitration deadline even arrives. Might be
more likely that teams will wait for his price to settle out, or
that teams who end up losing out on Fielder and Pujols get
involved with Pena as a fallback, but again only after the arb
deadline has already passed.
If I'm right, and teams aren't lining up to pay him that kind of
money before the arb deadline, then two things are true:
1. The Cubs need to evaluate whether he'll accept arbitration
if they are to offer it. Duh. They might be thrilled to get
him back at $8-10/1. That's a value judgment, and Theo is
qualified to make that. As are tico and you, Ron. I'm not
qualified or confident that I know what would make best sense
for us, or at what price.
2. If teams are not eager to pay him $10/season, it's not for
lack of chemistry, HRs, walks, or defense. It's because his
overall production is constrained by his low BA. Batting
average is a component of all things offensive. His OBP's these
last two years have been .357 and .325. His OPS's have been
.819 and .732. Are those $10 million figures for a 1B? Maybe,
but I'm not certain. Those values aren't higher because his BA
is low.
So making reference to his low batting average, which
effectively constrains his productivity, is not disingenuous.
It's just shorthand for the reality that we all understand, that
his flaw limits his productivity to some degree, enough so that
$8-10 isn't a sure and obvious thing (the way it would be with
his walks and HR if he hit .280.)
Pena is a unique player. I admit I have a hard time
guestimating what the mlb market for an .819-OPS 1b will be.
What is the market for an .819-OPS 1B? Is $10 a bargain? Or
an overpay? I don't know.
Two things that could work against him:
1. There are only 30 teams/starting 1B and Pena doesn't play
elsewhere. There aren't always a lot of openings for starting
1B. And even where there are openings some teams want a
prospect, don't want to spend $8-10, or want a guy only if he's
coming at bargain price. How much market attention will he get?
2. He'll be 34 in the spring. Teams may not project him as a
long-term cornerstone.
Sometimes older players sign at pretty modest prices. Sometimes
pretty good value-per-dollar contracts with guys like that
because the market competition isn't hot.
So if you offer arb to Pena, don't be overly certain that you're
going to end up with a draft pick. Offer arb only if you're OK
with the possibility that he might accept it.
#Post#: 38070--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: CurtOne
Date: October 14, 2011, 4:34 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
His age, his OPS, his BA, his defense, and all that are a
perfect storm for Theo. It will be interesting to see what they
do. I'm guessing they will go hard after Pujols or Fielder and
make the whole thing moot. Pena can always be dealt if LaHair
turns out to be something.
#Post#: 38071--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: craig
Date: October 14, 2011, 4:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: JeffH link ---
>
> It will be fascinating to see what Epstein does in his first
offseason with the club.
>
> I wonder if player moves might be made more toward "changing
the culture" (i.e., improving effort) and less toward trying to
"get good" right away.
>
> Ramirez, Zambrano, Soriano out.
>
> Pena, Byrd, Barney, Reed Johnson stay.
>
> Bring in a veteran mentor for Castro.
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
Excellent point, Jeff. A new boss could want to set the tone
for how things are going to be. Trying to get an immediate
start on defining the culture and values and procedures at the
major as well as minor league level could be something he'd want
to do.
I'm from Wisconsin, so while I've always been a Cubs fan for
baseball, I've always been a Green Bay Packers fan. (Although
until recently I never followed the football as closely as I did
the baseball for a long time.) Green Bay has really kind of
established a way that they do things. Totally a
build-through-the-draft, draft-and-develop format. They haven't
signed a FA to a million-dollar contract in years,or traded for
even a rotation player for many years. (Brandon Chiller I think
was their only million-dollar FA since Woodson and Pickett.)
But the players as well as the coaches pretty much understand
there is a way they go about things, and practice, and film
study, and a lot of that kind of thing. And they take a lot of
pride in that. There is definitely a "culture" to the
organization, and kind of an acceptance of ways to be a
professional NFL player that the team seems to buy into pretty
thoroughly. It would be interesting to see the Cubs not only
end up with the recent success that the Packers have enjoyed,
but also to kind of likewise end up with a positive identity of
professionalism and effort and success.
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