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#Post#: 37791--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: davep
Date: October 13, 2011, 10:41 am
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No sense keeping someone that might become a goodmajor leaguer.
Let's trade him quick, Especially since we have so many first
base prospects in the minors.
#Post#: 37793--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Jes Beard
Date: October 13, 2011, 10:50 am
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--- Quote from: Cactus link ---
>
> LaHair's trade value is never going to be any higher.
Hopefully it will stay there until Theo gets his feet on the
ground.
>
--- End Quote ---
If he has any value now it is because of what teams believe he
might be able to do in the majors, and anyone trading for him
will also discount the hope for his performance against the
possibility he will end up an abysmal failure at the major
league level.
If the Cubs next year focus on rebuilding, and use him as their
firstbaseman next season, and he in fact performs at the level
those who might be interested in him might hope for him (in
other words performing at a level where a full season would have
him hitting .280 with a number of walks and 25 HR, then his
value would actually be considerably higher than it is now.
#Post#: 37834--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Robb
Date: October 13, 2011, 12:05 pm
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If you ever write an autobiography Jes I have the title for you.
Call it, "Just for the sake of argument"
#Post#: 37857--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: StrikeZone
Date: October 13, 2011, 1:16 pm
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--- Quote from: davep link ---
>
> No sense keeping someone that might become a goodmajor
leaguer. Let's trade him quick, Especially since we have so
many first base prospects in the minors.
>
--- End Quote ---
I thought the bolded said "goc d@mned major leaguer," and I was
like, "Chill, Dave!"
#Post#: 37864--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 13, 2011, 1:52 pm
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Epstein will need to decide pretty soon whether he wants to keep
Ramirez and/or Pena, with a Nov 23 deadline for offering
arbitration. I think both will be Type B free agents. In the
past, the Cubs have rarely offered arbitration to any players
with the idea of doing so to get draft compensation. Epstein
apparently has the opposite approach, so it seems likely that he
will offer arbitration to both. It would not be a bad thing if
either or both accepted, though it seems unthinkable that either
would.
If arbitration is offered and refused, does that guarantee that
the Cubs would get supplemental picks for each, no matter when
or with whom they sign?
#Post#: 37895--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: craig
Date: October 13, 2011, 4:54 pm
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--- Quote from: Ron link ---
>
> Epstein will need to decide pretty soon whether he wants to
keep Ramirez and/or Pena, with a Nov 23 deadline for offering
arbitration. I think both will be Type B free agents. In the
past, the Cubs have rarely offered arbitration to any players
with the idea of doing so to get draft compensation. Epstein
apparently has the opposite approach, so it seems likely that he
will offer arbitration to both. It would not be a bad thing if
either or both accepted, though it seems unthinkable that either
would.
>
>
> If arbitration is offered and refused, does that guarantee
that the Cubs would get supplemental picks for each, no matter
when or with whom they sign?
>
--- End Quote ---
Yes.
The other good thing with a B guy is that there is no
disincentive for other teams signing them, because they don't
give up a pick. That doesn't matter for CJ Wilson or Buehrle,
but a team might not want to give up their top pick to get Pena.
I'm not familiar with how many fringy older limited Pena-type
players Epstein has offered arb to and gotten picks for. It's a
lot easier with Jason Bay or Derek Lowe, when you know somebody
is going to offer them a substantial multi-year deal.
#Post#: 37934--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: davep
Date: October 14, 2011, 1:00 am
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If arbitration is offered and refused, then the team gets a
draft choice if the player later signs.
Ramirez may refuse arbitration, but I suspect that Pena would
accept it, and get about the ten million he got last year.
#Post#: 37944--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: craig
Date: October 14, 2011, 7:21 am
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Is it still true that if you offer somebody a contract, there is
a minimum pay cut that can be offered? So the least we could
legally offer Pena would be $8 million in an arb deal?
My guess is that other teams won't be scrambling to get Pena at
$8 or $10 or more.
I agree with Dave, if you want to offer arb to Pena, you should
probably expect that you'll have him back at $8 or $10, rather
than expecting a draft pick.
Of course, I don't know the man. He seems bright and may be
looking for a chance at some playoff baseball still before he
retires. Or he might be the type of guy who'd rather play
somewhere for $4.5 than be a backup on the Cubs for $8. So
perhaps if we did acquire somebody else as the intended starter,
Pena wouldn't accept a Cub arb deal, even if it would
necessarily offer more millions for this year than he could get
elsewhere.
One other scenario is that he doesn't expect anything from us,
and somehow he signs a deal quickly on the market before the arb
deadline. Not likely, again because an older .220 hitter like
that is not going to be high on anybody's offseason list.
"Let's get Pena first, and then we can fill in our other needs
after that." But Ii thought that way about both Juan Pierre and
Jason Kendall too, both guys where there was zero chance that
Hendry was going to arb them. But by pure luck, teams signed
them early enough so that we got the pick without Hendry needing
to offer. Remotely unlikely, but it's a new day for the Cubs so
maybe all kinds of weird lucky things will start going our way.
#Post#: 37950--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Ron
Date: October 14, 2011, 8:18 am
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Craig - Characterizing Pena simply as a .220 hitter is a tad
disingenuous, don't you think?
Most .225 (his actual BA) hitters don't have an OBA of .357 and
an OPS of .819. He was 6th among NL1B in OPS, 17 points behind
Ryan Howard. Two of the other guys in front of him were named
Pujols and Fielder, and the other two are Votto and Michael
Morse (who had a higher OPS than Pujols). Pena is also one of
the better defensive 1B, and hasa reputation of being both a
great clubhouse guy and team leader.
I suspect he's rebuilt his value some during the last year, when
he had a .732 OPS. I don't know what that translates into as
far as dollars in today's market, I suppose that depends on how
many teams there are looking for power hitting 1B. Only two of
them will end up with Pujols and Fielder.
To suggest that Pena could only get $4.5 million for 2012, less
than Marlon Byrd, seems to me to seriously undervalue the guy.
#Post#: 37961--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '12
DIR By: Cactus
Date: October 14, 2011, 9:11 am
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The new spring training complex in Mesa looks like a done deal
HTML http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/local/mesa/article_b5a4a2fa-f5f8-11e0-863f-001cc4c002e0.html
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