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#Post#: 440392--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: craig
Date: October 4, 2021, 12:58 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> I was listening to Sharma/Mooney/Taylor's podcast and they put
into a better explanation of what I was thinking. The Cubs
aren't going to really be competing in the next 2 years. They
are going to try and field a better team, but I don't think they
are going to want to sign a free agent to high dollar 3+ year
deals. ....
> They should be able to get somebody like Noah Syndergaard for
a 1-2 year deal with a high AAV. ....
> They need to try and find the next Gausman or Ray, talented
but flawed guys. Hopefully they can, but finding the next
Chatwood is a much more likely.
--- End Quote ---
Thanks, blue. This thinking makes sense. I think a key on the
≥3 years bit is the "high dollar" factor. For sure, it
wouldn't make sense to do a Lester-type deal now, for guys who
are already established stars and are north of 30-years-old. But
more modest ≥3+ deals for younger guys who for whatever
reason you think have NOT hit their peak yet, that's different.
To do a Chatwood-type deal, it wasn't a budget-buster, and there
was a chance to get a breakout guy. Talented-but-flawed. I'd
like to get 3-4 years on a guy like that so that *IF* they hit,
the guy can be a player when they ARE competing. Gausman, Ray.
I wish last winter they'd signed DeSclafini (sp?) to a
3-year-deal-with-club-option.
Ron and birdbath have mentioned being way down on the
season-tickets list; now they've flown up because demand is way
down. I don't imagine after the second half of this season,
that Rickets wants to really plan the next two years with
nothing but Volstad and Maholm and Feldman type guys like Theo
and hoyer did in 2012 and 2013. 13/14 they also signed Edwin
Jackson and Jason Hammel.
I'd guess they'd be shooting at some guys more in the perceived
Jackson-Chatwood talented-but-flawed category, who were
perceived as higher-ceiling than Maholm and Feldman.
#Post#: 440395--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 4, 2021, 1:18 pm
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The problem with doing it this year is the 2 best years of the
contract are going to be wasted on what are really
non-cometativr years.
Look at Lester for example his first 2 years he was a 5 fWAR
pitcher. Year 3 was 3 fWAR, then 1.8, 2.7.
You want the most money available to fill holes when The Next
Hreat Cubs Team (TM) is taking the field. Maybe if things work
out next year it will make more sense. Maybe they sign Willson
to an extension to help sell tickets. The Cubs choose a path and
they need to stick with it.
#Post#: 440396--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 4, 2021, 1:20 pm
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The only QO guy I could see Cubs willing to sign and give up
that high 2nd round pick is Correa (probably Seager too but
don’t see him leaving LA).
Correa will play almost all of 2022 at age 27 (9/22 birthdate).
(NY media seem to think Conforto getting a QO, so he’s likely
out).
SS is, of course, a big deal and Correa probably stays a SS a
very long time n/w his size, as Cal did for so long. These guys
are just natural SSs. Think that Cubs will be loath to lose that
pick (assuming new cba keeps that in place, at least for 2022).
But, hard to argue that Correa isn’t worth a 2nd round pick.
Think Cubs would seriously consider a long-term deal for a
player of his caliber, even with the rebuild.
#Post#: 440397--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Reb
Date: October 4, 2021, 1:25 pm
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By the way, Cubs not only pick #7 in the draft, but also pick #7
in Rule 5 draft. So, possible might take a flier on somebody.
#Post#: 440405--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: craig
Date: October 4, 2021, 3:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> The problem with doing it this year is the 2 best years of the
contract are going to be wasted on what are really
non-cometativr years.
>
> Look at Lester for example his first 2 years he was a 5 fWAR
pitcher. Year 3 was 3 fWAR, then 1.8, 2.7. ...
--- End Quote ---
I agreed that you don't sign an old Lester who was a huge-ticket
and who was guaranteed big dollars through ages 36-37. Like you
said, the best 2 years were going to be the first two years.
But that wouldn't necessarily apply to a Chatwood type. A
not-so-old guy who hadn't-hit-his-peak yet.
Ted Lilly was 30 when Hendry signed him. He pitched four solid
seasons with the Cubs. His 3rd year was his best, an all-star
season, and his 4th was still solid. There was no age-based
decline. He was never as good as Lester, so his contract wasn't
Lesteresquely humungous; Lilly's never became a big burden, and
wouldn't have been so even had he declined by years 3 or 4. He
hadn't pitched his best baseball when he was signed, and his
best years were ahead. Hendry did not regret his 3rd and 4th
years of salary.
I'm saying that the Cubs could be willing to offer some 3-4 year
deals, for guys who won't be very old on the back end; for guys
who haven't become stars yet; for guys who whose contracts won't
be Lesteresque in size or duration. If they take one or two 3-
or 4-year shots on somebody like Lilly (a success) or Chatwood
(a fail), I would be neither surprised or disgusted.
#Post#: 440407--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Dave23
Date: October 4, 2021, 3:54 pm
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Steven Matz is 31, but has low mileage...
#Post#: 440410--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: ben
Date: October 4, 2021, 5:24 pm
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NO doubt, it's about pitching! Fantastic for the Cubs in 2016
(and latter half of '15 with Jake A), terrible this season (and
most)!
It sure could help if Marquez comes back healthy and focused
next season.
He's probably a reliever next season IF he makes the bigs, and
that's only IF he has command. But he's got the upside we're
looking for.
Too bad only about 1 in 3 of those guys tend to come anywhere
close to hitting their projected ceilings.
Giants seem to figure out that complex equation better than any
team and have for a long time.
#Post#: 440411--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: method
Date: October 4, 2021, 5:48 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Should target pitchers at organizations that constantly fail at
developing them. Go get John Means and Zac Gallen. cost might
not be crazy then tie them up.
#Post#: 440423--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: davep
Date: October 4, 2021, 10:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: method link ---
>
> Should target pitchers at organizations that constantly fail
at developing them.
>
--- End Quote ---
Doesn't that end with the Cubs targeting their own system?
#Post#: 440424--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: October 4, 2021, 11:32 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: craig link ---
>
> I agreed that you don't sign an old Lester who was a
huge-ticket and who was guaranteed big dollars through ages
36-37. Like you said, the best 2 years were going to be the
first two years.
>
> But that wouldn't necessarily apply to a Chatwood type. A
not-so-old guy who hadn't-hit-his-peak yet.
>
> Ted Lilly was 30 when Hendry signed him. He pitched four
solid seasons with the Cubs. His 3rd year was his best, an
all-star season, and his 4th was still solid. There was no
age-based decline. He was never as good as Lester, so his
contract wasn't Lesteresquely humungous; Lilly's never became a
big burden, and wouldn't have been so even had he declined by
years 3 or 4. He hadn't pitched his best baseball when he was
signed, and his best years were ahead. Hendry did not regret
his 3rd and 4th years of salary.
>
> I'm saying that the Cubs could be willing to offer some 3-4
year deals, for guys who won't be very old on the back end; for
guys who haven't become stars yet; for guys who whose contracts
won't be Lesteresque in size or duration. If they take one or
two 3- or 4-year shots on somebody like Lilly (a success) or
Chatwood (a fail), I would be neither surprised or disgusted.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
HTML https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html
If I’m Jed a Hoyer I’m trying to get Jon Gray and Noah
Synderguard on a 1 year prove it deal with a high AAV. The
pitching class just isn’t that good. Synderguard, Hendricks,
Gray, Mills/Steele/Thompson/free agent flawed guys could be a
fun rotation. Pixie Dust the bullpen and add a hitter or 2 and
you have a team that could be not awful or have some decent
trade chips at deadline.
Rodriguez is probably the only guy I would go multiple years on,
but I’d be really nervous about it. He probably gets a decent
contract too.
I want the Cubs to have the ability to add Lester, Zobrist and
Lackey level players when they are good again and I want a clean
balance sheet and spots to be able to put them into.
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