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#Post#: 443349--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Dihard
Date: December 3, 2021, 6:22 pm
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I love this dude!
#Post#: 443358--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: craig
Date: December 4, 2021, 8:56 am
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--- Quote from: JeffH link ---
>
> I think the path to Correa as a Cub, if any, will involve
three things.
>
> - A shorter than expected overall guarantee. Maybe 8 years
instead of 10.
> - One or more opt outs. Like after Y3 or after Y2 and Y4.
> - Front loading.
>
--- End Quote ---
Good thoughts, Jeff and reb.
*Jeff, I agree on the early opt-outs. Protect the player from
getting stuck long-term in a regrettable landscape, whether a
perpetual failed rebuild or a sub-market deal.
*Also agree that frontloading would make Cubs sense. Got
underspent budget now with nothing productive to spend it on
now, use that now, and save more for later.
*I'm not sure I agree on the Cubs prioritizing a shorter-length
deal? I don't see any contextual reason why the Cubs should be
more avoidant of years 8-9-10 than any other team? The current
rebuild context impact short-term planning, but shouldn't impact
8-10 years out. Obviously no team loves guaranteeing years
8-9-10 for players, for obvious reasons. But to the extent that
it's a price of doing business, that price is no different for
the Cubs than anybody else?
#Post#: 443364--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: JeffH
Date: December 4, 2021, 10:50 am
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Craig, I was thinking of the front loading being a selling point
for Correa rather than a pro-Cubs thing. If you combine a Y3
opt out with $40 annual salaries in Y1-3, maybe Correa will like
that more than a straight $350/10 with no opt out even if your
guarantee is only 8 years.
#Post#: 443366--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: craig
Date: December 4, 2021, 11:17 am
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Your thinking makes perfect sense, Jeff. Yeah, a $120/3 deal,
with contingency protection for years 4-8 in case he goes
Heyward. That might appeal to him more than years 9+10.
Jeff, is there a conundrum where if you make it too opt-out
oriented, that then you lose the guy just when the team is
getting good? Or maybe not... perhaps if you add a big star,
we could get good faster, and could attract other guys, too, who
see it as a chance to win fast? And *if* the team is really
good when the opt-out comes, maybe he'd both want to stay and be
a part of it, plus the team revenue will be back so you can
restructure and keep him longer?
And maybe if we do have a wave of young talent bubbling up by
that time, they could enable the team to stay good and keep
getting better, without having the sharp payroll spiking that
happened with Theo's plan?
Very complex!
#Post#: 443373--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: JeffH
Date: December 4, 2021, 12:31 pm
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Sure, the opt out comes with "losing him" risk, but, as you
often point out, incumbency has significant value.
#Post#: 443376--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: method
Date: December 4, 2021, 12:35 pm
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I think teams are worried about his back issues. I dont think
you need to front load the contract as it almost incentivizes an
opt-out if he performs well.
Hes going to want something close to what Seager got, both have
injury issues, and high ceilings so not sure how a team gets him
without making a similar commitment. But a 9 year deal with opt
outs after 3/6 with salary going up after each opt-in might make
a lot of sense.
#Post#: 443378--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: davep
Date: December 4, 2021, 12:38 pm
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The Heyward deal shows the player how they have protection in
case his performance goes south, but it also shows the team how
much damage can be done in that situation. Personally, I am not
crazy about a contract that is essentially heads you win, tails
I lose, for the team. Especially since the "win" for the team
occurs in the first three years, before they could likely become
a top tier contender, even with a "Good Correa".
I also question how much advantage a team willing to spend money
has because they are a contender. The vast majority of top
players tend to go to the top bidder, with issues such as
potential World Series Ring, home town discount, and other such
incentives playing a very distant second or third with the vast
majority of free agents.
I agree with Jeff that opt out years in the third, fourth and
fifth years would be a good incentive to Correa. I just don't
see them as being very advantageous to the Cubs.
#Post#: 443380--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Reb
Date: December 4, 2021, 12:45 pm
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Opt-outs are advantageous to the club…..only because they might
get you a player that you want, period, who you otherwise might
not get absent the opt-out(s).
100% a player benefit.
#Post#: 443381--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: JeffH
Date: December 4, 2021, 12:45 pm
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Dave, all good points, except you won't get many top free agents
with that line of thinking.
#Post#: 443383--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: davep
Date: December 4, 2021, 1:07 pm
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True. But signing a bunch of top free agents are not the only
way to run a team.
The Cubs are in this situation because they were foolish enough
to allow a situation to develop where most of their top players
became free agents at the same time. Unforgivable in any
management team. They should NEVER have given in to the
pressure to trade two potential stars for one somewhat more than
mediocre pitcher. They should NEVER have allowed Bryant, Baez
and Rizzo enter their second year of pre-free agency without
extending or trading at least. Trading one of them in winter
2019 - 2020 would have brought in one or two prospects that were
near MLB ready today, without destroying the 2019 team. Trading
another in winter 2020 - 2021 would have added another. Trading
the third last summer would have been much more helpful and much
less traumatic.
The good teams do not allow themselves to be put in a situation
where tanking is the only alternative.
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