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#Post#: 437538--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: Playtwo Date: August 17, 2021, 12:21 pm
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I view Contreras as a strong asset on the field and in the
clubhouse. He's not superstar, that's for sure, but he's an
excellent ballplayer.
#Post#: 437606--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: Deeg Date: August 17, 2021, 11:42 pm
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He’s a good player, about to enter a phase of his career where
he likely transitions to an average player. If he wants to be
paid like a star, that’s a pass. If his expectations are
realistic an extension might make sense, but the Cubs are very
unlikely to be any good for a few seasons.
#Post#: 437614--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: craig Date: August 18, 2021, 8:19 am
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[quote author=brs2 link=topic=585.msg437537#msg437537
date=1629220714]
From Kevin Goldstein's FanGraphs chat:
..The notion that Contreras is someone you can build around is a
weird narrative in the Chicago media.[/quote]
Unclear what Goldstein is thinking. Contreras is a good,
valuable player. But he doesn't get a lot of hits. I'm
guessing Goldstein is viewing a "build-around" guy as one who'd
be a lineup asset offensively, a middle-of-the-order bat that's
better than average even relative to other middle-of-the-order
hitters.
A defense-oriented player can absolutely be a core player and a
valuable part of a winning team, we all know that. But given
how hard scoring is, I can understand how Goldstein would
envision a "build-around" guy as one who'd be an excellent
hitter who gives your team an advantage in scoring runs.
Willson is hitting .226 this year. His OPS is a HR-driven .750,
which is fine for a strong-defense catcher. 2019 was an outlier
big season. But otherwise his OPS hasn't exceeded .763 in the
other 3 recent seasons, and his batting average has dropped
every year since the World Series other than 2019. A
good-defense run-prevention catcher who OPS's in the .700's is a
useful, good major leaguer, for sure. But run-creation is part
of baseball, and if your build-around star has a .750-OPS, your
run-creation side of the game is going to struggle. He's not a
bad hitter, but he's more of a support bat than you're
build-around bat.
If he's your best player, good chance you're going to have a
really bad offense and a losing team.
deeg is right, too, that Contreras in his 30's probably isn't
going to develop into a better hitter. He's had thousands of
AB's already to develop as best he could. If we're lucky, he'll
stay what he is for some years. But little chance of getting
better, and larger chance that some decline will continue to
varying degree and rate.
#Post#: 437615--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: wmljohn Date: August 18, 2021, 8:35 am
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[quote]deeg is right, too, that Contreras in his 30's probably
isn't going to develop into a better hitter. He's had thousands
of AB's already to develop as best he could. If we're lucky,
he'll stay what he is for some years. But little chance of
getting better, and larger chance that some decline will
continue to varying degree and rate. [/quote]
Sounds like it is the prime time to trade him. Sell high...
#Post#: 437649--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: Reb Date: August 18, 2021, 1:20 pm
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As I noted couple of weeks ago with hard data, Contreras has
less wear and tear/innings caught compared to his top notch
catching peers.
So, there is really no factual basis to infer some kind of
inevitable decline. See Posey, s. Perez, lately.
Obviously, that will come—as it does for everybody. But, there
should be no problem extending him at market value.
#Post#: 437661--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: craig Date: August 18, 2021, 2:13 pm
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Whatever and whenever future decline might come, the Cubs
evaluation of his market value should probably factor that he
has ALREADY declined. Rookie/sophomore Contreras was a
good-average hitter (.282, .276) with strong asset OPS .845,
.855. I think for us Cubs fans, there was a justifiable sense
that he might be an MVP guy, and that the best might still be
ahead for him... as a hitter.
That shouldn't be the mind-set for his next contract. It should
be as a high-energy plus-defense guy, who's probably going to be
a low-average hitter with a low-mid-.700's OPS until at some
point he declines. IN three of the four last years, he's
slugged .390, .407, and .417. In three of the last four years,
he's batted .249, .243, and .226. He's not the hitter he was,
and his contract shouldn't assume so.
I think this might be similiar to the other guys. Player might
want to get paid as if he was back at his peak. Hoyer's offers
will perhaps be more moderated by some recentism. The player
will probably prefer to "bet on myself, and test the market".
#Post#: 437672--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: Reb Date: August 18, 2021, 2:52 pm
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Players vary from year-to-year and, of course, have to take age
into account as do with everybody.
For example, Contreras had a poor 2018 offensive season and then
got better again.
Currently, Contreras has 3.8 bWAR in only 104 games played——All
Star caliber. Fangraphs has him considerably lower, so there’s
room for debate.
The way I see it is that IF you treat Contreras as a guy
inevitably in decline——that’s a formula for another contract
dump and then we can play another nobody at catcher for a few
seasons.
I don’t see that but rather see Contreras as one of the better
catchers in baseball going forward. Not arguing that he’s a
“Build Around” type of player but a very good core piece at a
critical position.
So, pay market value and extend him.
#Post#: 437673--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: Playtwo Date: August 18, 2021, 2:53 pm
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I totally agree, Reb.
#Post#: 437675--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: Dave23 Date: August 18, 2021, 2:54 pm
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Same…
#Post#: 437677--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
By: CUBluejays Date: August 18, 2021, 2:56 pm
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It depends on when the Cubs feel like they are going to compete.
If it isn't 2022 or 2023 then keeping Hendricks/Contreras is
all about keeping attendance vs building the "Next Great Cubs
Team TM."
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