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#Post#: 441812--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: JR
Date: November 5, 2021, 9:04 pm
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--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> Looking at realistically where the Cubs are in a competitive
window the second rounder has more value to the Cubs. I think
Hendricks and Contreras both getting traded this off-season is
more likely than the Cubs signing a QO free agent.
--- End Quote ---
--- Quote from: CUBluejays link ---
>
> So let me be really clear. I think it sucks the Cubs choose to
blow up the core. I think the Ricketts family is being cheap. I
also think it makes zero sense for this team to spend big
dollars on multi year deals to try and make some fans feel
better.
--- End Quote ---
I meant to respond to this earlier, but a couple of arguments on
why it could make more sense for the Cubs to make a push for
semi-respectability instead of going through a few years of
tanking and being overly protective of second round type draft
picks.
1. The Ricketts family is pretty heavily invested in both the
Marquee Network and the new entertainment venues around Wrigley
Field. They need fans to be interested to watch Marquee, to
visit the new venues around the park, etc. I'll go ahead and
tell you, I'm barely going to pay any attention to a 100 loss
tank team and might keep them on in the background when I'm
doing laundry and such, but that's about it. My days of that
are over, and I can't imagine many fans are going to sit through
another 2-3 years of 90-100 loss bad baseball. They definitely
have a business interest in making the product at least
semi-interesting going into this season.
2. Most of us (all of us?) are of the generation that we grew
up watching the Cubs on WGN, many like me who lived nowhere near
Chicago but watched them on the Superstation, got used to
watching mediocre to bad Cubs teams but would do it anyway
because they were easy to watch on cable, Harry was fun to
listen to, they had entertaining players like Sandberg, Sosa,
Grace, Wood, Dawson, etc. Gen Z and much of Gen Y Cubs fans are
no longer people brought along on WGN. In some ways, I doubt
the Cubs are terribly indistinguishable nationwide to Gen Z than
a lot of other established teams. Those are definitely not fans
that are going to turn to Marquee to watch Rafael Ortega,
Patrick Wisdom, the two Romine's, etc. lose 90-100 games. And I
doubt you get those fans buying into us as a national product if
we go through another 3-4 years of terribleness before The Next
Great Cub Team happens, and the Ricketts need to keep the Cubs
as a national product for their investment in them to work.
I don't see complete tank, and quite frankly, I don't think
baseball or business wise, it makes sense to be complete tank
going into the season. I don't see a Contreras move before the
season being especially likely for that reason. I think moves
like Miley today are kind of geared in the direction of putting
a respectable product on the field for the fans. Not that he's
anything special, but he's a guy who can help make the product
anti-awful.
(By the way not to say you're arguing for more or less tanking,
so forgive me if I'm putting together a nice straw man to take
down here. :))
#Post#: 441814--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 5, 2021, 9:19 pm
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Anti-awful is, empirically, the worst outcome you can pursue as
a club.
#Post#: 441815--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 5, 2021, 9:27 pm
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I mean I think the Cubs are going to spend money a lot of money
on short term (1-2 years) deals. I think they are going to try
and put of something that can be sold as a competitive team to
the fans, but also something that can be sold off for prospects
if it doesn’t work.
I think spending big money on multi-year deals doesn’t make
sense. The best years of those deals is going to be when the
Cubs are least competitive. The Cubs need to have financial
flexibility to sign the next Lester when the team is entering
their window.
Miley if he’s your 4th/5th starter is fine. He can be cut if he
sucks and replaced by a kid or traded if he can put together
another year. I would prefer the Cubs to shot for more upside in
these types of moves. Bringing in guys like Miley, you aren’t
going to find the next Ray/Gausman and Miley is far from a sure
thing.
I can’t imagine I’m going to be super interested in the Cubs for
a few years. I’m probably going to get OOTP next year and have
more fun playing that game than watching the Cubs.
#Post#: 441840--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Bennett
Date: November 6, 2021, 1:59 pm
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HTML https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/11/06/cubs-reportedly-cancelling-cubs-convention-for-the-second-straight-year/
#Post#: 441855--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: davep
Date: November 6, 2021, 9:59 pm
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I lean closer to BlueJay's view that I do to Jr's, although
probably to the same degree, for a couple of reasonsj.
First, the farm system right now is substantially better and
more advanced than it was when Epstein took over. It is
certainly not ready to begin a new wave of players right now,
but they have a good base to work with in A and Below, and
scattered prospects at higher levels, such as Brennan Davis,
Marquez and Amaya. They have also shown that they can create a
decent bull pen seemingly out of nothing, and they already have
a head start with Wick, Adams and Heuer, as well as Leeper and a
few that were intermittantly good last season in the majors.
They have major work to do with position players, but again,
have somewhat of a head start with Hoerner and Madrigel, and
even Ortega, Schindel and Wisdom are substantially better than
what they had in 2012.
In addition, in the early years, they were severely constrained
with the sales agreement, which limited the money they had to
spend on Baseball Operations. This no longer exists. The only
heavy lifting they have to do immediately is with the starting
staff. Unlike others, I do not think they will trade Hendricks.
In fact, I think they will try to extend him once (if) the new
labor contract is sorted out. Even with current offensive
players, the addition of two decent mid rotation starters will
allow them to field a team that will draw fans to the park. I
don't expect them to dump tons of money into the team
immediately, but as they previously promised (and fulfilled),
the money will be there when the timing is right, in my opinion,
off season 2022 and 2023.
I think there is a reasonable chance that they will seriously
try to extend Contreras, and I wouldn't be surprised if they try
to land one offensive player, perhaps Baez or Soler if the DH is
brought into the NL. An awful lot depends upon their
expectations for Marquez. They have been extremely tight lipped
about him, but I am sure that they have formed a strong opinion
about him.
#Post#: 441858--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: craig
Date: November 6, 2021, 11:02 pm
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The future will depend on how good the prospects actually are
that are currently in the system. You don't always know.
*Theo and Hoyer didn't project 26.5 WAR for Lemahieu. (Nor did
I). Contreras wasn't perceived as a rising all-star by BA, or
probably Theo either. With Baez, Contreras, Lemahieu, Theo was
inheriting three all-stars. Andrew Cashner was also talented
enough to stack 3.09 and 2.55 ERA seasons shortly after the
trade, prior to injury, and accumulated 11 WAR himself, despite
his injury. Samardz was a talented guy. Dempster and Garza
were valued players with trade value. Theo may have been
walking into more talent than he realized. He also still had a
CBA where he was able to go out and super-spend to add Soler.
The perspective is that the present rebuild might begin with
much more talent in the system. Which may be true. But who
knows, it may not be, either? It may not have even one
future-all-star in the system now, much less three. And the
big-league team probably does not have the trade capitol right
now that Theo had with Cashner, Dempster, and Garza.
*IF* the rebuild is going to work and work quickly, it will
require that a lot of uncertain prospects work out well. Can
Davis be as good, perhaps better, than Happ? Can Jensen,
Brailyn, Wicks, or Killian ever be as good or better than
Cashner? Will many of the Mesa guys work out much better than
Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters did? Need and want a lot of
"yes" answers on a bundle of those guys.
#Post#: 441870--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 7, 2021, 7:35 am
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QO for Thor, no for Matz, maybe for Gray. Matz seems like a
very logical guy for the Cubs to pursue.
#Post#: 441871--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: davep
Date: November 7, 2021, 7:46 am
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You are right, fortelling the future of any prospects is
difficult to do with any certainty. However, over the long run,
probability can be in your favor. I think that most baseball
people would much rather have 10 players like Davis right now
than 10 players randomly selected from any system. And I think
it is highly likely that someone currently in our system will
end up having a much better career than anyone could possibly
expect. But that is something that can and will happen with any
system.
When I look at the Cubs system right now, I see much better raw
material to work with, both in the majors and the minors, than
in 2012. And if the Cubs front office evaluates them as I do,
then they are much less likely to have the "destroy and rebuild"
strategy going forward than they had in 2012.
#Post#: 441894--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: Deeg
Date: November 7, 2021, 5:02 pm
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So Matz, Gray and Rodon are the headline SP with no QOs. You’d
almost have to say it was unlikely the Cubs don’t sign one of
them.
Rodon is certainly the most intriguing risk-reward play of the
trio. If you like upside, he’d be the guy.
#Post#: 441897--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '22
DIR By: CUBluejays
Date: November 7, 2021, 5:07 pm
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QO
Ray, Rodriguez, Synderguard and Verlander SP
Iglesias RP
Belt, Castellanos, Conforto, Correa, Seagar, Chris Taylor,
Semien, Story, Freeman
Gray not getting one is a Rockies move.
Chris Taylor getting one is surprising to me.
Gray, Descalfini, Rodon would seem like a nice place to start
with the rotation.
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