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#Post#: 426430--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: Dave23 Date: March 8, 2021, 10:26 pm
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All that, plus his baseball IQ is ++...
#Post#: 426433--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: craig Date: March 8, 2021, 10:55 pm
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=573.msg426425#msg426425
date=1615260166]
...... what else was there that he needed work on? ...[/quote]
Possibly his hitting? For example, perhaps he needs work on
using the whole field? Perhaps he needs work on driving the
ball and getting more extension? Perhaps on hitting the ball
earlier and further out? (I recall that supposedly being the
adjustment that Justin Turner supposedly made that turned his
career around.). Perhaps his weight-shift?
I'm not saying that I know. But I think there was perhaps more
to his hitting issues last year than just the lack of physical
strength? Or that with the added strength all issues are gone.
I'm sure hoping he's the guy and that he's going to be good. I
agree, in the couple of AB's I've seen, he does look much
stronger physically. And I think perhaps some other hitting
adjustments have already been made.
Often a pull hitter or a power hitter is instructed to learn to
hit to the opposite field. If he drives the ball and pulls the
ball for power a lot, but doesn't use the opposite field a lot,
that's criticized. (With reason). But I think when a guy
constantly goes opposite field, and does NOT use the pull field,
he is not equivalently criticized. My subjective observation of
Hoerner last year was that he was so radically opposite field,
it was counterproductive. Inside pitches, he'd still fist it
opposite-way. His stance alignment and his weight shift were
overly committed to opposite way, and didn't have the
flexibility to respond to actual pitches and pull those that
should be pulled.
So, I'm thinking his ability to use left field, to pull inside
pitches, and to get his bat out and to drive inside pitches or
offspeed stuff would help him.
To some degree I think that may already perhaps be the case? In
his AB's today, in one of them he pulled a ball fairly sharply
foul past 3B. One of his hits he was able to at least get it to
CF, maybe even a few degrees left of dead center. But yeah, I
think getting his hands out and hitting some balls to left is
something he'll need to do in order to be good.
#Post#: 426435--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: craig Date: March 8, 2021, 11:02 pm
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I think *IF* the Cubs want to go for it this year and try to be
good, they probably need to gamble on Hoerner being the answer.
I don't feel like Bote and Vargas/Sogard are going to help the
lineup all that much. Sogard can't hit. I'd love to see Bote
step up and be increasingly productive, so he might end up being
pretty good at 2B. But *IF* Hoerner can hit and be the primary
2b, with Bote as a bench guy, that gives the lineup a much
better chance. And could also perhaps free Bryant to play more
LF versus tough lefties, and let Joc semi-platoon.
Hoerner might not be good, but he might. The Cubs need some
might-be-good guys to work out and to be good, in order to have
a happy season.
And if Hoerner could hit, having his defense at 2B every day
would really reinforce the team defense.
#Post#: 426436--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: davep Date: March 8, 2021, 11:13 pm
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The problem with the question of "is he ready" is defining the
term ready. Has he been around long enough for the good
pitchers and scouts to find and exploit his weaknesses? Has he
been able to adjust to those exploitations? Is he physically
strong enough to withstand the rigors of a full season.
The situation we are currently in should have taught us that six
years of MLB control go swiftly. If we bring a player up that
is going to struggle in the majors, even if he learns as he goes
as well or better than he could have in the minors, we might
have wasted two or more if his controlled years. Much better to
do his learning, as well as his physical maturation in the
minors. We had lost years with Happ. Lost years with Javy.
And lost years with Schwarber, all of which has come back to
bite us now. It was perhaps understandable in 2016, when we
were going for it all in a year we had a reasonable chance to
make it. But I highly doubt that Hoerner's presence, no matter
how well he does, is likely to bring us to the World series.
I agree with Deeg that spring training stats mean very little,
especially this early, when more than half of the pitchers faced
will probably be in the minors or out of baseball in three
weeks. At the same time, it seems silly to say that thus far,
Hoerner has stunk. A .247 major league BA for the first 186 at
bats is hardly stellar, but is probably as good or better than
most rookies his age, and came with excellent defense. Hoerner
contributed in his first year or so, but I doubt that his
contribution will be very much above average this year, and will
end with another wasted year of control.
He may be ready to play at a reasonable level this year, but I
doubt highly that he will be able to excel, as he might do with
another year's experience and maturation. I hope they do not
start him with the big league team this April.
All this comes with the caveat that those who make the decision
will have so much more information at their disposal to make
that decision than we have that is doesn't make a lot of sense
for any of us to second guess that decision.
#Post#: 426437--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: CUBluejays Date: March 8, 2021, 11:14 pm
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High contact guys don't gain much in the minors.
Hoerner needs to elevate the ball off the ground to be a good
hitter. His launch angle last year was 0.8%, he seems to be
elevating the ball more.
He hits the ball up the middle too much and would benefit from
pulling it more. Career in the majors he 33.8% pull (36.6 MLB
average), Straight 43.5% (37.9%), Oppo 22.7% (25.5). In 2019
his pull % was 29.1, straight 46.5%, 24.4%. The bigger issue is
55.2% GB% which was 57% in 2019. He elevates the ball and he'll
be above average on offense. Hoerner stayed in Chicago over the
winter to work with coaching staff on this. That is bigger than
his strength gains.
His biggest help is going to be on defense though. He was 95th
percentile in Outs Above Average last year. With a staff
dedicated to contact his defense is going to be more important
than his offense.
#Post#: 426439--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: Reb Date: March 9, 2021, 12:10 am
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I see very little downside keeping Hoerner up to open the
season.
With Hoerner at SB camp for a month and then Iowa—his ABs would
go to marginal regulars Bote/Sogard or Vargas. And less defense
with those guys. Don’t see much upside there. It’s not like the
job goes to an established impact guy.
If Hoerner stays and struggles and has to go to Iowa, fine. Even
then, the struggles are very unlikely to hurt him long-term.
Hoerner will be age 24 six weeks into the season. He’s not a
kid.
His future is tied to increasing his slug in a major way. He is
0.86 iso career and that translates to a utility guy if he
stayed at or near that level. Think that’s in the view mirror
and we’re going to see a very big increase with him in 2021.
Just give him the ABs and let’s see what happens.
#Post#: 426440--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: craig Date: March 9, 2021, 4:13 am
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[quote author=Reb link=topic=573.msg426439#msg426439
date=1615270228]
I see very little downside keeping Hoerner up to open the
season.
With Hoerner at SB camp for a month and then Iowa—his ABs would
go to marginal regulars Bote/Sogard or Vargas. And less defense
with those guys. Don’t see much upside there. .....[/quote]
Thanks, reb. You express the Nowacrat perspective very well.
#Post#: 426441--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: craig Date: March 9, 2021, 4:16 am
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For a rookie who hadn't previously been called up, how long does
a guy normally need to stay down to NOT click in his first
season towards arbitration? 50 games or so, I'm thinking? So
with hoerner having used up 20 games or so of service two years
ago, he'd probably need to stay down for maybe 70 to avoid this
season burning his 2nd pre-arb year?
So basically this year and next are his only remaining pre-arb
seasons, unless you keep him down for like 70 games?
Dave's reasoning touches on the frustration of burning a
player's club-controlled cheap years on development years. By
burning two of Hoerner's club-controlled years last year and
this, you may regret it in 4 years when he's then in his prime
and perhaps is really good, but is already expiring. (And
perhaps if the next mlb shortens the years to FA, maybe he'll
already be expiring in only three years?).
#Post#: 426445--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: CUBluejays Date: March 9, 2021, 6:57 am
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Hoerner usually isn’t the type that is super expensive even in
free agency. Wong would be a good example of his type of player.
You might even be able to get him to sign an extension to keep
his AAV down.
#Post#: 426447--------------------------------------------------
Re: Today's Game - 2021
By: davep Date: March 9, 2021, 8:25 am
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If you can sign him now to a Bote type contract, fine. Keep him
up..
If you are on the cusp of having a dominant season, fine. Keep
him up.
But if you feel that there is little chance of being a Dodgers
or Padres type season, leave him in the minors for development.
Contact hitters have holes in their swings just as much as
sluggers. Let the AAA pitchers find his weaknesses, and let him
learn to adjust to that at a time when winning the particular
game is not the paramount goal. Can he hit a well commanded
high fastball, followed by a well commanded low outside slider?
We should find out in the minors, not the majors.
Granted, he is a contact hitter rather than a slugger. But that
didn't stop hitting him about .200 last year, and 15 spring
training at bats against mostly minor league pitchers really
don't show us that much. Let's not make the same mistake that
we made with Happ, Schwarber and probably Baez. Development
should come in the minors, where is learning is stressed, not
the majors, where winning is stressed.
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